forecasting-tools 0.2.91__tar.gz → 0.2.92__tar.gz

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/PKG-INFO

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.4
 Name: forecasting-tools
-Version: 0.2.91
+Version: 0.2.92
 Summary: AI forecasting and research tools to help humans reason about and forecast the future
 License: MIT
 License-File: LICENSE

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/agents_and_tools/ai_congress_v2/congress_orchestrator.py

@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ LONG_TIMEOUT = 480
 class CongressOrchestrator:
     def __init__(
         self,
-        aggregation_model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4",
+        aggregation_model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6",
         num_delphi_rounds: int = 1,
     ):
         self.aggregation_model = aggregation_model

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/agents_and_tools/ai_congress_v2/data_models.py

@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ class CongressMember(BaseModel, Jsonable):
     general_motivation: str
     expertise_areas: list[str]
     personality_traits: list[str]
-    ai_model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4"
+    ai_model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6"
     search_model: str = "openrouter/perplexity/sonar-reasoning-pro"
 
     @property

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/agents_and_tools/ai_congress_v2/member_profiles.py

@@ -1,11 +1,15 @@
 from forecasting_tools.agents_and_tools.ai_congress_v2.data_models import CongressMember
 
+DEFAULT_POLITICAL_MODEL = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6"
+
 # =============================================================================
 # POLITICAL VALUE-BASED MEMBERS
+# Note: All names below are intentionally fictional and do not refer to any real
+# politician. They are archetypes selected to span a broad ideological space.
 # =============================================================================
 
 TRADITIONAL_CONSERVATIVE = CongressMember(
-    name="Sen. Burke",
+    name="Sen. Thornbury",
     role="Traditional Conservative",
     political_leaning="traditional conservative",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -27,11 +31,11 @@ TRADITIONAL_CONSERVATIVE = CongressMember(
         "respects established institutions",
         "emphasizes personal responsibility",
     ],
-    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+    ai_model=DEFAULT_POLITICAL_MODEL,
 )
 
 PROGRESSIVE_REFORMER = CongressMember(
-    name="Rep. Warren",
+    name="Rep. Hartwell",
     role="Progressive Reformer",
     political_leaning="progressive",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -53,11 +57,11 @@ PROGRESSIVE_REFORMER = CongressMember(
         "prioritizes workers and consumers",
         "impatient with incrementalism",
     ],
-    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+    ai_model=DEFAULT_POLITICAL_MODEL,
 )
 
 LIBERTARIAN = CongressMember(
-    name="Rep. Paul",
+    name="Rep. Calloway",
     role="Libertarian",
     political_leaning="libertarian",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -79,11 +83,11 @@ LIBERTARIAN = CongressMember(
         "consistent across issues",
         "opposes paternalism",
     ],
-    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+    ai_model=DEFAULT_POLITICAL_MODEL,
 )
 
 POPULIST_NATIONALIST = CongressMember(
-    name="Sen. Vance",
+    name="Sen. Marsden",
     role="Populist Nationalist",
     political_leaning="populist nationalist",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -105,11 +109,11 @@ POPULIST_NATIONALIST = CongressMember(
         "questions free trade orthodoxy",
         "focuses on forgotten communities",
     ],
-    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+    ai_model=DEFAULT_POLITICAL_MODEL,
 )
 
 NATIONAL_SECURITY_HAWK = CongressMember(
-    name="Sen. McCain",
+    name="Sen. Ashford",
     role="National Security Hawk",
     political_leaning="hawkish internationalist",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -131,11 +135,11 @@ NATIONAL_SECURITY_HAWK = CongressMember(
         "willing to use force",
         "prioritizes deterrence",
     ],
-    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+    ai_model=DEFAULT_POLITICAL_MODEL,
 )
 
 ENVIRONMENTALIST = CongressMember(
-    name="Rep. Ocasio",
+    name="Rep. Vellacott",
     role="Climate and Environmental Advocate",
     political_leaning="green progressive",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -157,11 +161,11 @@ ENVIRONMENTALIST = CongressMember(
         "intergenerational focus",
         "skeptical of fossil fuel industry",
     ],
-    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+    ai_model=DEFAULT_POLITICAL_MODEL,
 )
 
 DEMOCRATIC_SOCIALIST = CongressMember(
-    name="Sen. Sanders",
+    name="Sen. Quill",
     role="Democratic Socialist",
     political_leaning="democratic socialist",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -183,11 +187,11 @@ DEMOCRATIC_SOCIALIST = CongressMember(
         "consistent ideology",
         "grassroots orientation",
     ],
-    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+    ai_model=DEFAULT_POLITICAL_MODEL,
 )
 
 TECHNOCRATIC_CENTRIST = CongressMember(
-    name="Sec. Buttigieg",
+    name="Sec. Drummond",
     role="Technocratic Centrist",
     political_leaning="technocratic centrist",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -209,7 +213,7 @@ TECHNOCRATIC_CENTRIST = CongressMember(
         "values expertise",
         "incrementalist",
     ],
-    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+    ai_model=DEFAULT_POLITICAL_MODEL,
 )
 
 # =============================================================================
@@ -217,7 +221,7 @@ TECHNOCRATIC_CENTRIST = CongressMember(
 # =============================================================================
 
 CLAUDE_MEMBER = CongressMember(
-    name="Opus 4.5 (Anthropic)",
+    name="Claude Opus 4.7 (Anthropic)",
     role="AI Policy Analyst",
     political_leaning="behaves as Claude naturally does",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -227,7 +231,7 @@ CLAUDE_MEMBER = CongressMember(
     ),
     expertise_areas=["general policy analysis"],
     personality_traits=["behaves naturally as Claude"],
-    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-opus-4.5",
+    ai_model="openrouter/anthropic/claude-opus-4.7",
 )
 
 GPT_MEMBER = CongressMember(
@@ -245,7 +249,7 @@ GPT_MEMBER = CongressMember(
 )
 
 GEMINI_MEMBER = CongressMember(
-    name="Gemini 3 Pro (Google)",
+    name="Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google)",
     role="AI Policy Analyst",
     political_leaning="behaves as Gemini naturally does",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -255,11 +259,11 @@ GEMINI_MEMBER = CongressMember(
     ),
     expertise_areas=["general policy analysis"],
     personality_traits=["behaves naturally as Gemini"],
-    ai_model="openrouter/google/gemini-3-pro-preview",
+    ai_model="openrouter/google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview",
 )
 
 GROK_MEMBER = CongressMember(
-    name="Grok 4 (xAI)",
+    name="Grok 4.20 (xAI)",
     role="AI Policy Analyst",
     political_leaning="behaves as Grok naturally does",
     general_motivation=(
@@ -269,7 +273,7 @@ GROK_MEMBER = CongressMember(
     ),
     expertise_areas=["general policy analysis"],
     personality_traits=["behaves naturally as Grok"],
-    ai_model="openrouter/x-ai/grok-4",
+    ai_model="openrouter/x-ai/grok-4.20",
 )
 
 DEEPSEEK_MEMBER = CongressMember(
@@ -309,7 +313,7 @@ AI_MODEL_MEMBERS: list[CongressMember] = [
     DEEPSEEK_MEMBER,
 ]
 
-AVAILABLE_MEMBERS: list[CongressMember] = POLITICAL_MEMBERS + AI_MODEL_MEMBERS
+AVAILABLE_MEMBERS: list[CongressMember] = AI_MODEL_MEMBERS + POLITICAL_MEMBERS
 
 MEMBER_BY_NAME: dict[str, CongressMember] = {m.name: m for m in AVAILABLE_MEMBERS}
 

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/agents_and_tools/other/data_analyzer.py

@@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ class DataAnalyzer:
     def data_analysis_tool(
         instruction: str,
         additional_context: str | None = None,
-        files: list | None = None,
+        files: list[AvailableFile] | None = None,
     ) -> str:
         """
         This tool attempts to use code to achieve the user's instructions.
@@ -109,7 +109,7 @@ class DataAnalyzer:
         Format files as a list of dicts with the following format: {"file_name": "string", "file_id": "string"}
         """
         data_analysis = DataAnalyzer()
-        available_files = [AvailableFile(**file) for file in files] if files else []
+        available_files = list(files) if files else []
         return asyncio.run(
             data_analysis.run_data_analysis(
                 instruction, additional_context, available_files

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/agents_and_tools/situation_simulator/agent_runner.py

@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ class LlmMessage(BaseModel, Jsonable):
 class SimulationAgentRunner:
     def __init__(
         self,
-        default_model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+        default_model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6",
         timeout: int = AGENT_TURN_TIMEOUT,
     ) -> None:
         self.default_model = default_model

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/agents_and_tools/situation_simulator/data_models.py

@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ class AgentDefinition(BaseModel, Jsonable):
     starting_inventory: dict[str, int] = Field(default_factory=dict)
     special_actions: list[ActionDefinition] = Field(default_factory=list)
     inventory_rules: list[InventoryRule] = Field(default_factory=list)
-    ai_model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+    ai_model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6"
 
 
 class Channel(BaseModel, Jsonable):

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/agents_and_tools/situation_simulator/intervention_testing/intervention_policy_agent.py

@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ POLICY_AGENT_TIMEOUT = 300
 class InterventionPolicyAgent:
     def __init__(
         self,
-        model_name: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4",
+        model_name: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6",
         timeout: int = POLICY_AGENT_TIMEOUT,
         structure_output_model: GeneralLlm | None = None,
     ) -> None:

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/agents_and_tools/situation_simulator/intervention_testing/intervention_runner.py

@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ INTERVENTION_ADVISOR_NAME = "Intervention Advisor"
 class InterventionRunner:
     def __init__(
         self,
-        model_name: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4",
+        model_name: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6",
         cost_limit: float = 100.0,
     ) -> None:
         self.model_name = model_name

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/agents_and_tools/situation_simulator/situation_generator.py

@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@ SITUATION_SCHEMA_GUIDE = clean_indents(
               "effects": [<Effect objects>]
             }
           ],
-          "ai_model": "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+          "ai_model": "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6"
         }
       ],
       "environment": {
@@ -186,7 +186,7 @@ SITUATION_DESIGN_GUIDE = clean_indents(
 class SituationGenerator:
     def __init__(
         self,
-        model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+        model: str = "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6",
     ) -> None:
         self.model = model
 

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/front_end/app_pages/chat_page.py

@@ -60,22 +60,25 @@ from forecasting_tools.util.misc import clean_indents
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 
-DEFAULT_MODEL: str = (
-    "openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-pro"  # "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5.5"
-)
+DEFAULT_MODEL: str = "openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-pro"
 MODEL_CHOICES: list[str] = [
     DEFAULT_MODEL,
+    "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6",
+    "openrouter/anthropic/claude-opus-4.7",
+    "gemini/gemini-3.1-pro-preview",
+    "openai/gpt-5.2",
+    "xai/grok-4.20",
+    "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
     "openai/gpt-5",
     "openrouter/x-ai/grok-4",
     "openrouter/anthropic/claude-opus-4.1",
     "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4",
-    "openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
     "openai/o3",
     "openai/o4-mini",
     "openai/gpt-4.1",
     "gpt-4o",
-    "openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-pro-preview",
     "openrouter/google/gemini-3-pro-preview",
+    "openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-pro-preview",
 ]
 
 
@@ -502,7 +505,7 @@ class ChatPage(AppPage):
                 output = message["output"]
                 last_message["content"][0][
                     "text"
-                ] += f"\n\n---\n\nNOTICE: There is a bug in gemini tool calling in OpenAI agents SDK, here is the content. Consider using openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4:\n\n {output}."
+                ] += f"\n\n---\n\nNOTICE: There is a bug in gemini tool calling in OpenAI agents SDK, here is the content. Consider using openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6:\n\n {output}."
 
     @classmethod
     def clear_chat_history(cls) -> None:

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/front_end/app_pages/congress_v2_page.py

@@ -38,7 +38,6 @@ SESSIONS_FOLDER = "temp/congress_v2_sessions"
 EXAMPLE_SESSION_PATH = (
     "forecasting_tools/front_end/example_outputs/congress_v2_page_example.json"
 )
-V2_PASSPHRASE = f"metac {CustomAuth.DEFAULT_PASSPHRASE}"
 
 
 class CongressV2Page(AppPage):
@@ -92,6 +91,7 @@ class CongressV2Page(AppPage):
     ]
 
     @classmethod
+    @CustomAuth.add_access_control()
     async def _async_main(cls) -> None:
         st.title("🏛️ AI Forecasting Congress V2")
         st.markdown(
@@ -215,10 +215,10 @@ class CongressV2Page(AppPage):
 
             member_names = [m.name for m in AVAILABLE_MEMBERS]
             default_members = [
-                "Opus 4.5 (Anthropic)",
+                "Claude Opus 4.7 (Anthropic)",
                 "GPT 5.2 (OpenAI)",
-                "Gemini 3 Pro (Google)",
-                "Grok 4 (xAI)",
+                "Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google)",
+                "Grok 4.20 (xAI)",
                 "DeepSeek V3.2 (DeepSeek)",
             ]
             selected_members = st.multiselect(

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/front_end/app_pages/forecaster_page.py

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+import json
 import logging
 import re
 
@@ -7,6 +8,8 @@ from pydantic import BaseModel
 
 from forecasting_tools.data_models.binary_report import BinaryReport
 from forecasting_tools.data_models.questions import BinaryQuestion
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.bot_lists import get_all_important_bot_classes
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.forecast_bot import ForecastBot
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.main_bot import MainBot
 from forecasting_tools.front_end.helpers.report_displayer import ReportDisplayer
 from forecasting_tools.front_end.helpers.tool_page import ToolPage
@@ -33,7 +36,6 @@ class ForecasterPage(ToolPage):
         "forecasting_tools/front_end/example_outputs/forecast_page_examples.json"
     )
 
-    # Form input keys
     QUESTION_TEXT_BOX = "question_text_box"
     RESOLUTION_CRITERIA_BOX = "resolution_criteria_box"
     FINE_PRINT_BOX = "fine_print_box"
@@ -42,13 +44,91 @@ class ForecasterPage(ToolPage):
     NUM_BASE_RATE_QUESTIONS_BOX = "num_base_rate_questions_box"
     METACULUS_URL_INPUT = "metaculus_url_input"
     FETCH_BUTTON = "fetch_button"
+    BOT_CHOICE_KEY = "forecaster_bot_choice"
+    DEFAULT_BOT_NAME = MainBot.__name__
 
     @classmethod
     async def _display_intro_text(cls) -> None:
-        # st.write(
-        #     "Enter the information for your question. Exa.ai is used to gather up to date information. Each citation attempts to link to a highlight of the a ~4 sentence quote found with Exa.ai. This project is in beta some inaccuracies are expected."
-        # )
-        pass
+        cls._display_bot_selector_and_config()
+
+    @classmethod
+    def _get_available_bot_classes(cls) -> list[type[ForecastBot]]:
+        bot_classes = get_all_important_bot_classes()
+        ordered: list[type[ForecastBot]] = []
+        for bot_class in bot_classes:
+            if bot_class is MainBot:
+                ordered.insert(0, bot_class)
+            elif bot_class not in ordered:
+                ordered.append(bot_class)
+        if MainBot not in ordered:
+            ordered.insert(0, MainBot)
+        return ordered
+
+    @classmethod
+    def _get_selected_bot_class(cls) -> type[ForecastBot]:
+        bot_classes = cls._get_available_bot_classes()
+        bot_class_by_name = {bot.__name__: bot for bot in bot_classes}
+        chosen_name = st.session_state.get(cls.BOT_CHOICE_KEY, cls.DEFAULT_BOT_NAME)
+        return bot_class_by_name.get(chosen_name, MainBot)
+
+    @classmethod
+    def _display_bot_selector_and_config(cls) -> None:
+        bot_classes = cls._get_available_bot_classes()
+        bot_names = [bot.__name__ for bot in bot_classes]
+        if cls.BOT_CHOICE_KEY not in st.session_state:
+            st.session_state[cls.BOT_CHOICE_KEY] = cls.DEFAULT_BOT_NAME
+
+        default_index = (
+            bot_names.index(st.session_state[cls.BOT_CHOICE_KEY])
+            if st.session_state[cls.BOT_CHOICE_KEY] in bot_names
+            else 0
+        )
+        st.selectbox(
+            "Forecasting Bot",
+            options=bot_names,
+            index=default_index,
+            key=cls.BOT_CHOICE_KEY,
+            help=(
+                "The bot used to forecast. "
+                f"`{cls.DEFAULT_BOT_NAME}` is the default and the verified "
+                "highest-accuracy bot."
+            ),
+        )
+
+        bot_class = cls._get_selected_bot_class()
+        with st.expander("Bot Configuration", expanded=False):
+            cls._render_bot_config(bot_class)
+
+    @classmethod
+    def _render_bot_config(cls, bot_class: type[ForecastBot]) -> None:
+        try:
+            bot_instance = bot_class(
+                research_reports_per_question=1,
+                predictions_per_research_report=5,
+                publish_reports_to_metaculus=False,
+                folder_to_save_reports_to=None,
+            )
+        except Exception as exception:
+            st.error(f"Could not instantiate {bot_class.__name__}: {exception}")
+            return
+
+        docstring = (bot_class.__doc__ or "").strip()
+        if docstring:
+            st.markdown(f"**Description:** {docstring}")
+        st.markdown(f"**Bot Class:** `{bot_class.__name__}`")
+        st.markdown(
+            f"**Research Reports per Question:** "
+            f"{bot_instance.research_reports_per_question}"
+        )
+        st.markdown(
+            f"**Predictions per Research Report:** "
+            f"{bot_instance.predictions_per_research_report}"
+        )
+        st.markdown("**LLM Configuration:**")
+        st.code(
+            json.dumps(bot_instance.make_llm_dict(), indent=2, default=str),
+            language="json",
+        )
 
     @classmethod
     async def _get_input(cls) -> ForecastInput | None:
@@ -87,8 +167,12 @@ class ForecasterPage(ToolPage):
 
     @classmethod
     async def _run_tool(cls, input: ForecastInput) -> BinaryReport:
-        with st.spinner("Forecasting... This may take a minute or two..."):
-            report = await MainBot(
+        bot_class = cls._get_selected_bot_class()
+        with st.spinner(
+            f"Forecasting with `{bot_class.__name__}`... "
+            "This may take a minute or two..."
+        ):
+            report = await bot_class(
                 research_reports_per_question=1,
                 predictions_per_research_report=5,
                 publish_reports_to_metaculus=False,

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/forecasting_tools/helpers/asknews_searcher.py

@@ -53,23 +53,18 @@ class AskNewsSearcher:
         self.client_secret = client_secret or os.getenv("ASKNEWS_SECRET")
         self.api_key = api_key or os.getenv("ASKNEWS_API_KEY")
 
-        # Check if both authentication methods are defined
         has_oauth = bool(self.client_id and self.client_secret)
         has_api_key = bool(self.api_key)
 
         if has_oauth and has_api_key:
-            raise ValueError(
-                "Cannot use both OAuth (client_id/client_secret) and API key authentication. "
-                "Please provide either ASKNEWS_CLIENT_ID + ASKNEWS_SECRET or ASKNEWS_API_KEY, not both."
-            )
-
-        # Validate OAuth credentials
-        if has_oauth and (not self.client_id or not self.client_secret):
-            raise ValueError(
-                "Incomplete OAuth credentials. Both ASKNEWS_CLIENT_ID and ASKNEWS_SECRET must be set."
+            logger.warning(
+                "Both AskNews OAuth (ASKNEWS_CLIENT_ID + ASKNEWS_SECRET) and "
+                "ASKNEWS_API_KEY were provided. Preferring OAuth and ignoring the "
+                "API key."
             )
+            self.api_key = None
+            has_api_key = False
 
-        # Validate that at least one authentication method is provided
         if not has_oauth and not has_api_key:
             raise ValueError(
                 "No authentication credentials provided. "

{forecasting_tools-0.2.91 → forecasting_tools-0.2.92}/pyproject.toml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 [tool.poetry]
 name = "forecasting-tools"
-version = "0.2.91"
+version = "0.2.92"
 description = "AI forecasting and research tools to help humans reason about and forecast the future"
 authors = ["Benjamin Wilson <ben@metaculus.com>"]
 license = "MIT"