evalci 0.1.0__tar.gz
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- evalci-0.1.0/LICENSE +21 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/PKG-INFO +159 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/README.md +132 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/pyproject.toml +42 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/setup.cfg +4 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/__init__.py +25 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/_correction.py +41 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/_intervals.py +56 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/_power.py +65 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/_significance.py +111 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/adapters/__init__.py +7 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/adapters/csv.py +21 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/adapters/helm.py +59 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/adapters/lm_eval_harness.py +67 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/cli.py +96 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/report.py +86 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/schema.py +45 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci/stats.py +278 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci.egg-info/PKG-INFO +159 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci.egg-info/SOURCES.txt +31 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci.egg-info/dependency_links.txt +1 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci.egg-info/entry_points.txt +2 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci.egg-info/requires.txt +7 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/src/evalci.egg-info/top_level.txt +1 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/tests/test_adapters.py +115 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/tests/test_cli.py +97 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/tests/test_correction.py +53 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/tests/test_intervals.py +61 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/tests/test_power.py +62 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/tests/test_report.py +67 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/tests/test_schema.py +64 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/tests/test_significance.py +93 -0
- evalci-0.1.0/tests/test_stats_api.py +141 -0
evalci-0.1.0/LICENSE
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MIT License
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Copyright (c) 2026 Shreyas
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Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
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of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
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in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
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to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
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copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
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furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
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The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
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copies or substantial portions of the Software.
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THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
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IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
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FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
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AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
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LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
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OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
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SOFTWARE.
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evalci-0.1.0/PKG-INFO
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Metadata-Version: 2.4
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Name: evalci
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Version: 0.1.0
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Summary: Statistical significance & confidence intervals for LLM evals
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Author: Shreyas
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License-Expression: MIT
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Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/Shreyaskc/evalci
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Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/Shreyaskc/evalci
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Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/Shreyaskc/evalci/issues
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Keywords: llm,evaluation,statistics,confidence-interval,significance-testing,benchmarking
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Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
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Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
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Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3 :: Only
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Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering
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Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Artificial Intelligence
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Requires-Python: >=3.9
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Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
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License-File: LICENSE
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Requires-Dist: numpy
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Requires-Dist: scipy
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Requires-Dist: pandas
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Provides-Extra: test
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Requires-Dist: pytest; extra == "test"
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Requires-Dist: statsmodels; extra == "test"
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Dynamic: license-file
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# evalci
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Statistically sound comparisons between LLMs on benchmarks: confidence
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intervals on accuracy, paired significance tests, power analysis, clustered
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standard errors for multi-sample decoding, and multiple-comparison correction
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across many models/benchmarks — all validated against `statsmodels`/exact
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enumeration fixtures.
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```python
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>>> import evalci
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>>> result = evalci.compare(model_a_scores, model_b_scores, method="permutation")
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>>> evalci.report(result)
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'Δ=0.034, 95% CI [0.005, 0.063], paired permutation p=0.025*, n=1319' # exact numbers depend on your data
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```
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## Status
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Core library (statistics, eval-shaped workflows, adapters, CLI) is implemented
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and tested. Not yet released to PyPI; no arXiv paper or DOI yet.
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## Install
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Not yet on PyPI. Install from source:
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```bash
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git clone https://github.com/Shreyaskc/evalci.git
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cd evalci
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pip install -e ".[test]" # add [test] to also get pytest/statsmodels for running the test suite
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```
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Requires Python ≥3.9. Runtime dependencies are numpy, scipy, and pandas only.
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## Usage
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### Confidence interval on a single model
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```python
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import evalci
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# binary (0/1) per-item correctness
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evalci.ci(scores, method="wilson") # Wilson score interval
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evalci.ci(scores, method="clopper-pearson") # exact interval
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# continuous scores (e.g. a similarity metric)
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evalci.ci(scores, method="bootstrap") # percentile/BCa bootstrap on the mean
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```
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### Comparing two models on the same items
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```python
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result = evalci.compare(model_a_scores, model_b_scores, paired=True, method="permutation")
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# result.delta, result.ci, result.p_value, result.n
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evalci.compare(a, b, method="bootstrap") # null-shifted bootstrap hypothesis test
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evalci.compare(a, b, method="mcnemar") # McNemar's test for paired binary outcomes
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evalci.compare(a, b, paired=False, method="permutation") # independent samples
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```
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### Sample-size / power calculator
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```python
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evalci.power(delta=0.03, power=0.8) # required n to detect a 3-point gap at 80% power
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evalci.power(delta=0.03, n=1500) # achieved power at n=1500
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evalci.power(delta=0.03, power=0.8, method="simulation", rho=0.3) # correlated-items simulation
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```
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### Many models × many benchmarks, with correction
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```python
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import pandas as pd
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# per-item schema: item_id, model, score, [subset], [sample_idx]
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df = pd.DataFrame(...)
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table = evalci.multi_compare(df, correction="holm")
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print(evalci.report(table, format="markdown"))
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```
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### Clustered standard errors (repeated decoding, grouped questions)
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```python
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# clusters groups multiple samples of the same underlying item
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evalci.cluster_ci(scores, clusters)
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```
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### Loading results from eval harnesses
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```python
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from evalci.adapters import load_lm_eval_harness, load_helm, load_csv
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df_a = load_lm_eval_harness("results_a.json", model="model-a")
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df_b = load_helm("per_instance_stats.json", model="model-b")
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```
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### CLI
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```bash
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evalci compare results_a.json results_b.json --method permutation
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evalci compare results_a.json results_b.json --format helm --method mcnemar
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```
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Auto-detects lm-evaluation-harness / HELM / CSV format from the file
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extension/content; pass `--format` to override, and `--model-a`/`--model-b` to
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label the two runs explicitly.
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## What's validated, and how
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Statistical correctness is the point of this library, so the test suite
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cross-checks every routine against an independent reference rather than just
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re-testing its own math:
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- Wilson and Clopper-Pearson intervals against `statsmodels.stats.proportion.proportion_confint`
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- McNemar's test (exact and asymptotic) against `statsmodels.stats.contingency_tables.mcnemar`
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- Holm and Benjamini-Hochberg correction against `statsmodels.stats.multitest.multipletests`
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- The paired permutation test against brute-force exact enumeration of all sign flips (small n)
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- Bootstrap CIs via a coverage simulation (nominal 95% CIs should contain the true parameter ~95% of the time)
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`statsmodels` is a test-only dependency (`pip install -e ".[test]"`), not a
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runtime dependency.
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```bash
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pytest tests/
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```
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## API surface
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`evalci.ci`, `evalci.compare`, `evalci.power`, `evalci.multi_compare`,
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`evalci.cluster_ci`, `evalci.report`, `evalci.adapters.{load_lm_eval_harness,
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load_helm, load_csv}`.
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## License
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MIT — see [LICENSE](LICENSE).
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evalci-0.1.0/README.md
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# evalci
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Statistically sound comparisons between LLMs on benchmarks: confidence
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intervals on accuracy, paired significance tests, power analysis, clustered
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standard errors for multi-sample decoding, and multiple-comparison correction
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across many models/benchmarks — all validated against `statsmodels`/exact
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enumeration fixtures.
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```python
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>>> import evalci
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>>> result = evalci.compare(model_a_scores, model_b_scores, method="permutation")
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>>> evalci.report(result)
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'Δ=0.034, 95% CI [0.005, 0.063], paired permutation p=0.025*, n=1319' # exact numbers depend on your data
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```
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## Status
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Core library (statistics, eval-shaped workflows, adapters, CLI) is implemented
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and tested. Not yet released to PyPI; no arXiv paper or DOI yet.
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## Install
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Not yet on PyPI. Install from source:
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```bash
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git clone https://github.com/Shreyaskc/evalci.git
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cd evalci
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pip install -e ".[test]" # add [test] to also get pytest/statsmodels for running the test suite
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```
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Requires Python ≥3.9. Runtime dependencies are numpy, scipy, and pandas only.
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## Usage
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### Confidence interval on a single model
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```python
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import evalci
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# binary (0/1) per-item correctness
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evalci.ci(scores, method="wilson") # Wilson score interval
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evalci.ci(scores, method="clopper-pearson") # exact interval
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# continuous scores (e.g. a similarity metric)
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evalci.ci(scores, method="bootstrap") # percentile/BCa bootstrap on the mean
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```
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### Comparing two models on the same items
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```python
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result = evalci.compare(model_a_scores, model_b_scores, paired=True, method="permutation")
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# result.delta, result.ci, result.p_value, result.n
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evalci.compare(a, b, method="bootstrap") # null-shifted bootstrap hypothesis test
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evalci.compare(a, b, method="mcnemar") # McNemar's test for paired binary outcomes
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evalci.compare(a, b, paired=False, method="permutation") # independent samples
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```
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### Sample-size / power calculator
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```python
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evalci.power(delta=0.03, power=0.8) # required n to detect a 3-point gap at 80% power
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evalci.power(delta=0.03, n=1500) # achieved power at n=1500
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evalci.power(delta=0.03, power=0.8, method="simulation", rho=0.3) # correlated-items simulation
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```
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### Many models × many benchmarks, with correction
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```python
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import pandas as pd
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# per-item schema: item_id, model, score, [subset], [sample_idx]
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df = pd.DataFrame(...)
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table = evalci.multi_compare(df, correction="holm")
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print(evalci.report(table, format="markdown"))
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```
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### Clustered standard errors (repeated decoding, grouped questions)
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```python
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# clusters groups multiple samples of the same underlying item
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evalci.cluster_ci(scores, clusters)
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```
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### Loading results from eval harnesses
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```python
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from evalci.adapters import load_lm_eval_harness, load_helm, load_csv
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df_a = load_lm_eval_harness("results_a.json", model="model-a")
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df_b = load_helm("per_instance_stats.json", model="model-b")
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```
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### CLI
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```bash
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evalci compare results_a.json results_b.json --method permutation
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evalci compare results_a.json results_b.json --format helm --method mcnemar
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```
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Auto-detects lm-evaluation-harness / HELM / CSV format from the file
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extension/content; pass `--format` to override, and `--model-a`/`--model-b` to
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label the two runs explicitly.
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105
|
+
## What's validated, and how
|
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106
|
+
|
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107
|
+
Statistical correctness is the point of this library, so the test suite
|
|
108
|
+
cross-checks every routine against an independent reference rather than just
|
|
109
|
+
re-testing its own math:
|
|
110
|
+
|
|
111
|
+
- Wilson and Clopper-Pearson intervals against `statsmodels.stats.proportion.proportion_confint`
|
|
112
|
+
- McNemar's test (exact and asymptotic) against `statsmodels.stats.contingency_tables.mcnemar`
|
|
113
|
+
- Holm and Benjamini-Hochberg correction against `statsmodels.stats.multitest.multipletests`
|
|
114
|
+
- The paired permutation test against brute-force exact enumeration of all sign flips (small n)
|
|
115
|
+
- Bootstrap CIs via a coverage simulation (nominal 95% CIs should contain the true parameter ~95% of the time)
|
|
116
|
+
|
|
117
|
+
`statsmodels` is a test-only dependency (`pip install -e ".[test]"`), not a
|
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|
+
runtime dependency.
|
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119
|
+
|
|
120
|
+
```bash
|
|
121
|
+
pytest tests/
|
|
122
|
+
```
|
|
123
|
+
|
|
124
|
+
## API surface
|
|
125
|
+
|
|
126
|
+
`evalci.ci`, `evalci.compare`, `evalci.power`, `evalci.multi_compare`,
|
|
127
|
+
`evalci.cluster_ci`, `evalci.report`, `evalci.adapters.{load_lm_eval_harness,
|
|
128
|
+
load_helm, load_csv}`.
|
|
129
|
+
|
|
130
|
+
## License
|
|
131
|
+
|
|
132
|
+
MIT — see [LICENSE](LICENSE).
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
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|
1
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+
[build-system]
|
|
2
|
+
requires = ["setuptools>=61.0"]
|
|
3
|
+
build-backend = "setuptools.build_meta"
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
[project]
|
|
6
|
+
name = "evalci"
|
|
7
|
+
version = "0.1.0"
|
|
8
|
+
description = "Statistical significance & confidence intervals for LLM evals"
|
|
9
|
+
readme = "README.md"
|
|
10
|
+
license = "MIT"
|
|
11
|
+
requires-python = ">=3.9"
|
|
12
|
+
authors = [
|
|
13
|
+
{ name = "Shreyas" },
|
|
14
|
+
]
|
|
15
|
+
keywords = ["llm", "evaluation", "statistics", "confidence-interval", "significance-testing", "benchmarking"]
|
|
16
|
+
classifiers = [
|
|
17
|
+
"Development Status :: 3 - Alpha",
|
|
18
|
+
"Intended Audience :: Science/Research",
|
|
19
|
+
"Programming Language :: Python :: 3",
|
|
20
|
+
"Programming Language :: Python :: 3 :: Only",
|
|
21
|
+
"Topic :: Scientific/Engineering",
|
|
22
|
+
"Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Artificial Intelligence",
|
|
23
|
+
]
|
|
24
|
+
dependencies = [
|
|
25
|
+
"numpy",
|
|
26
|
+
"scipy",
|
|
27
|
+
"pandas",
|
|
28
|
+
]
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
|
+
[project.urls]
|
|
31
|
+
Homepage = "https://github.com/Shreyaskc/evalci"
|
|
32
|
+
Repository = "https://github.com/Shreyaskc/evalci"
|
|
33
|
+
Issues = "https://github.com/Shreyaskc/evalci/issues"
|
|
34
|
+
|
|
35
|
+
[project.optional-dependencies]
|
|
36
|
+
test = ["pytest", "statsmodels"]
|
|
37
|
+
|
|
38
|
+
[project.scripts]
|
|
39
|
+
evalci = "evalci.cli:main"
|
|
40
|
+
|
|
41
|
+
[tool.setuptools.packages.find]
|
|
42
|
+
where = ["src"]
|
evalci-0.1.0/setup.cfg
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
from .stats import (
|
|
2
|
+
CIResult,
|
|
3
|
+
CompareResult,
|
|
4
|
+
PowerResult,
|
|
5
|
+
ci,
|
|
6
|
+
cluster_ci,
|
|
7
|
+
compare,
|
|
8
|
+
multi_compare,
|
|
9
|
+
power,
|
|
10
|
+
)
|
|
11
|
+
from .report import report
|
|
12
|
+
from . import adapters
|
|
13
|
+
|
|
14
|
+
__all__ = [
|
|
15
|
+
"ci",
|
|
16
|
+
"compare",
|
|
17
|
+
"power",
|
|
18
|
+
"multi_compare",
|
|
19
|
+
"cluster_ci",
|
|
20
|
+
"report",
|
|
21
|
+
"CIResult",
|
|
22
|
+
"CompareResult",
|
|
23
|
+
"PowerResult",
|
|
24
|
+
"adapters",
|
|
25
|
+
]
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
"""Multiple-comparison correction: Holm and Benjamini-Hochberg."""
|
|
2
|
+
import numpy as np
|
|
3
|
+
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
def holm(pvalues):
|
|
6
|
+
"""Holm (1979) step-down Bonferroni correction. Returns adjusted p-values."""
|
|
7
|
+
p = np.asarray(pvalues, dtype=float)
|
|
8
|
+
n = len(p)
|
|
9
|
+
order = np.argsort(p)
|
|
10
|
+
adj = np.empty(n)
|
|
11
|
+
running_max = 0.0
|
|
12
|
+
for i, idx in enumerate(order):
|
|
13
|
+
running_max = max(running_max, (n - i) * p[idx])
|
|
14
|
+
adj[idx] = min(running_max, 1.0)
|
|
15
|
+
return adj
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
def benjamini_hochberg(pvalues):
|
|
19
|
+
"""Benjamini-Hochberg (1995) FDR correction. Returns adjusted (q) values."""
|
|
20
|
+
p = np.asarray(pvalues, dtype=float)
|
|
21
|
+
n = len(p)
|
|
22
|
+
order = np.argsort(p)[::-1]
|
|
23
|
+
adj = np.empty(n)
|
|
24
|
+
running_min = 1.0
|
|
25
|
+
for i, idx in enumerate(order):
|
|
26
|
+
rank = n - i
|
|
27
|
+
running_min = min(running_min, p[idx] * n / rank)
|
|
28
|
+
adj[idx] = running_min
|
|
29
|
+
return np.clip(adj, 0, 1)
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
|
|
32
|
+
def correct_pvalues(pvalues, method="holm"):
|
|
33
|
+
method = method.lower()
|
|
34
|
+
if method in ("holm", "bonferroni-holm"):
|
|
35
|
+
return holm(pvalues)
|
|
36
|
+
if method in ("bh", "benjamini-hochberg", "fdr_bh"):
|
|
37
|
+
return benjamini_hochberg(pvalues)
|
|
38
|
+
if method == "bonferroni":
|
|
39
|
+
p = np.asarray(pvalues, dtype=float)
|
|
40
|
+
return np.clip(p * len(p), 0, 1)
|
|
41
|
+
raise ValueError(f"unknown correction method: {method!r}")
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
"""Interval estimators: Wilson, Clopper-Pearson, and bootstrap (percentile/BCa)."""
|
|
2
|
+
import numpy as np
|
|
3
|
+
from scipy import stats as _scipy_stats
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
|
|
6
|
+
def wilson_interval(k, n, confidence=0.95):
|
|
7
|
+
"""Wilson score interval for a binomial proportion."""
|
|
8
|
+
if n <= 0:
|
|
9
|
+
raise ValueError("n must be positive")
|
|
10
|
+
z = _scipy_stats.norm.ppf(0.5 + confidence / 2)
|
|
11
|
+
phat = k / n
|
|
12
|
+
z2 = z * z
|
|
13
|
+
denom = 1 + z2 / n
|
|
14
|
+
center = (phat + z2 / (2 * n)) / denom
|
|
15
|
+
half = (z * np.sqrt(phat * (1 - phat) / n + z2 / (4 * n * n))) / denom
|
|
16
|
+
return max(0.0, center - half), min(1.0, center + half)
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
|
|
19
|
+
def clopper_pearson_interval(k, n, confidence=0.95):
|
|
20
|
+
"""Exact (Clopper-Pearson) interval for a binomial proportion."""
|
|
21
|
+
if n <= 0:
|
|
22
|
+
raise ValueError("n must be positive")
|
|
23
|
+
alpha = 1 - confidence
|
|
24
|
+
lo = 0.0 if k == 0 else _scipy_stats.beta.ppf(alpha / 2, k, n - k + 1)
|
|
25
|
+
hi = 1.0 if k == n else _scipy_stats.beta.ppf(1 - alpha / 2, k + 1, n - k)
|
|
26
|
+
return float(lo), float(hi)
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
def bootstrap_interval(
|
|
30
|
+
data,
|
|
31
|
+
statistic=np.mean,
|
|
32
|
+
method="BCa",
|
|
33
|
+
confidence=0.95,
|
|
34
|
+
n_resamples=9999,
|
|
35
|
+
random_state=None,
|
|
36
|
+
vectorized=True,
|
|
37
|
+
):
|
|
38
|
+
"""Bootstrap CI for an arbitrary statistic via scipy.stats.bootstrap."""
|
|
39
|
+
data = np.asarray(data, dtype=float)
|
|
40
|
+
scipy_method = {"bca": "BCa", "percentile": "percentile", "basic": "basic"}.get(
|
|
41
|
+
method.lower(), method
|
|
42
|
+
)
|
|
43
|
+
if np.all(data == data[0]):
|
|
44
|
+
# degenerate (zero-variance) sample: BCa's acceleration is undefined
|
|
45
|
+
point = float(statistic(data))
|
|
46
|
+
return point, point
|
|
47
|
+
res = _scipy_stats.bootstrap(
|
|
48
|
+
(data,),
|
|
49
|
+
statistic,
|
|
50
|
+
confidence_level=confidence,
|
|
51
|
+
method=scipy_method,
|
|
52
|
+
n_resamples=n_resamples,
|
|
53
|
+
random_state=random_state,
|
|
54
|
+
vectorized=vectorized,
|
|
55
|
+
)
|
|
56
|
+
return float(res.confidence_interval.low), float(res.confidence_interval.high)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
"""Power / sample-size analysis: analytic (normal approximation) and simulation."""
|
|
2
|
+
import numpy as np
|
|
3
|
+
from scipy import stats as _scipy_stats
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
|
|
6
|
+
def analytic_n(delta, target_power=0.8, baseline=0.5, alpha=0.05):
|
|
7
|
+
"""Two-proportion normal-approximation sample size for a given effect size."""
|
|
8
|
+
p1, p2 = baseline, baseline + delta
|
|
9
|
+
z_alpha = _scipy_stats.norm.ppf(1 - alpha / 2)
|
|
10
|
+
z_beta = _scipy_stats.norm.ppf(target_power)
|
|
11
|
+
var = p1 * (1 - p1) + p2 * (1 - p2)
|
|
12
|
+
n = ((z_alpha + z_beta) ** 2) * var / (delta**2)
|
|
13
|
+
return int(np.ceil(n))
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
def analytic_power(delta, n, baseline=0.5, alpha=0.05):
|
|
17
|
+
"""Achieved power of a two-proportion test for given n and effect size."""
|
|
18
|
+
p1, p2 = baseline, baseline + delta
|
|
19
|
+
z_alpha = _scipy_stats.norm.ppf(1 - alpha / 2)
|
|
20
|
+
var = p1 * (1 - p1) + p2 * (1 - p2)
|
|
21
|
+
z_beta = np.sqrt(n * (delta**2) / var) - z_alpha
|
|
22
|
+
return float(_scipy_stats.norm.cdf(z_beta))
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
|
|
25
|
+
def simulate_power(delta, n, baseline=0.5, alpha=0.05, rho=0.0, sims=5000, random_state=None):
|
|
26
|
+
"""Monte Carlo power for a paired design with correlated item-level outcomes.
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
`rho` is the fraction of items whose correctness is shared between the two
|
|
29
|
+
models (a common-difficulty link) rather than drawn independently; it is a
|
|
30
|
+
simplified correlation knob, not an exact bivariate-Bernoulli correlation.
|
|
31
|
+
"""
|
|
32
|
+
rng = np.random.default_rng(random_state)
|
|
33
|
+
p1, p2 = baseline, baseline + delta
|
|
34
|
+
shared = rng.random((sims, n)) < rho
|
|
35
|
+
shared_correct = rng.random((sims, n)) < (p1 + p2) / 2
|
|
36
|
+
a_ind = rng.random((sims, n)) < p1
|
|
37
|
+
b_ind = rng.random((sims, n)) < p2
|
|
38
|
+
a = np.where(shared, shared_correct, a_ind).astype(float)
|
|
39
|
+
b = np.where(shared, shared_correct, b_ind).astype(float)
|
|
40
|
+
diffs = a - b
|
|
41
|
+
means = diffs.mean(axis=1)
|
|
42
|
+
sds = diffs.std(axis=1, ddof=1)
|
|
43
|
+
sds[sds == 0] = 1e-12
|
|
44
|
+
z = means / (sds / np.sqrt(n))
|
|
45
|
+
pvals = 2 * (1 - _scipy_stats.norm.cdf(np.abs(z)))
|
|
46
|
+
return float(np.mean(pvals < alpha))
|
|
47
|
+
|
|
48
|
+
|
|
49
|
+
def simulate_n(delta, target_power=0.8, baseline=0.5, alpha=0.05, rho=0.0, sims=3000, random_state=None):
|
|
50
|
+
"""Bisection search for the n achieving target_power under simulate_power."""
|
|
51
|
+
lo, hi = 4, 64
|
|
52
|
+
max_n = 1_000_000
|
|
53
|
+
while simulate_power(delta, hi, baseline, alpha, rho, sims, random_state) < target_power:
|
|
54
|
+
lo = hi
|
|
55
|
+
hi *= 2
|
|
56
|
+
if hi > max_n:
|
|
57
|
+
return max_n
|
|
58
|
+
while hi - lo > 1:
|
|
59
|
+
mid = (lo + hi) // 2
|
|
60
|
+
p = simulate_power(delta, mid, baseline, alpha, rho, sims, random_state)
|
|
61
|
+
if p < target_power:
|
|
62
|
+
lo = mid
|
|
63
|
+
else:
|
|
64
|
+
hi = mid
|
|
65
|
+
return hi
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
"""Significance-test internals: paired/unpaired permutation, bootstrap, McNemar."""
|
|
2
|
+
import itertools
|
|
3
|
+
|
|
4
|
+
import numpy as np
|
|
5
|
+
from scipy import stats as _scipy_stats
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
EXACT_ENUMERATION_THRESHOLD = 12
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
|
|
10
|
+
def paired_bootstrap_ci(diffs, confidence=0.95, n_resamples=9999, rng=None):
|
|
11
|
+
rng = rng or np.random.default_rng()
|
|
12
|
+
n = len(diffs)
|
|
13
|
+
idx = rng.integers(0, n, size=(n_resamples, n))
|
|
14
|
+
resampled_means = diffs[idx].mean(axis=1)
|
|
15
|
+
alpha = 1 - confidence
|
|
16
|
+
lo, hi = np.percentile(resampled_means, [100 * alpha / 2, 100 * (1 - alpha / 2)])
|
|
17
|
+
return float(lo), float(hi)
|
|
18
|
+
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
def unpaired_bootstrap_ci(a, b, confidence=0.95, n_resamples=9999, rng=None):
|
|
21
|
+
rng = rng or np.random.default_rng()
|
|
22
|
+
na, nb = len(a), len(b)
|
|
23
|
+
idx_a = rng.integers(0, na, size=(n_resamples, na))
|
|
24
|
+
idx_b = rng.integers(0, nb, size=(n_resamples, nb))
|
|
25
|
+
stats = a[idx_a].mean(axis=1) - b[idx_b].mean(axis=1)
|
|
26
|
+
alpha = 1 - confidence
|
|
27
|
+
lo, hi = np.percentile(stats, [100 * alpha / 2, 100 * (1 - alpha / 2)])
|
|
28
|
+
return float(lo), float(hi)
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
def paired_permutation_p(diffs, n_resamples=9999, rng=None, exact_threshold=EXACT_ENUMERATION_THRESHOLD):
|
|
32
|
+
"""Sign-flip permutation test on paired differences. Exact enumeration for small n."""
|
|
33
|
+
rng = rng or np.random.default_rng()
|
|
34
|
+
n = len(diffs)
|
|
35
|
+
obs = diffs.mean()
|
|
36
|
+
if n <= exact_threshold:
|
|
37
|
+
signs = np.array(list(itertools.product([-1, 1], repeat=n)), dtype=float)
|
|
38
|
+
resampled = (signs * diffs).mean(axis=1)
|
|
39
|
+
count = np.sum(np.abs(resampled) >= abs(obs) - 1e-9)
|
|
40
|
+
return float(count / len(signs))
|
|
41
|
+
signs = rng.choice([-1.0, 1.0], size=(n_resamples, n))
|
|
42
|
+
resampled = (signs * diffs).mean(axis=1)
|
|
43
|
+
count = np.sum(np.abs(resampled) >= abs(obs) - 1e-9)
|
|
44
|
+
return float((count + 1) / (n_resamples + 1))
|
|
45
|
+
|
|
46
|
+
|
|
47
|
+
def unpaired_permutation_p(a, b, n_resamples=9999, rng=None):
|
|
48
|
+
"""Label-shuffle permutation test for two independent samples."""
|
|
49
|
+
rng = rng or np.random.default_rng()
|
|
50
|
+
na = len(a)
|
|
51
|
+
combined = np.concatenate([a, b])
|
|
52
|
+
obs = a.mean() - b.mean()
|
|
53
|
+
tiled = np.broadcast_to(combined, (n_resamples, len(combined))).copy()
|
|
54
|
+
perms = rng.permuted(tiled, axis=1)
|
|
55
|
+
stat = perms[:, :na].mean(axis=1) - perms[:, na:].mean(axis=1)
|
|
56
|
+
count = np.sum(np.abs(stat) >= abs(obs) - 1e-9)
|
|
57
|
+
return float((count + 1) / (n_resamples + 1))
|
|
58
|
+
|
|
59
|
+
|
|
60
|
+
def paired_bootstrap_p(diffs, n_resamples=9999, rng=None):
|
|
61
|
+
"""Null-shifted bootstrap hypothesis test on paired differences."""
|
|
62
|
+
rng = rng or np.random.default_rng()
|
|
63
|
+
n = len(diffs)
|
|
64
|
+
obs = diffs.mean()
|
|
65
|
+
shifted = diffs - obs
|
|
66
|
+
idx = rng.integers(0, n, size=(n_resamples, n))
|
|
67
|
+
resampled = shifted[idx].mean(axis=1)
|
|
68
|
+
count = np.sum(np.abs(resampled) >= abs(obs) - 1e-9)
|
|
69
|
+
return float((count + 1) / (n_resamples + 1))
|
|
70
|
+
|
|
71
|
+
|
|
72
|
+
def unpaired_bootstrap_p(a, b, n_resamples=9999, rng=None):
|
|
73
|
+
"""Null-shifted bootstrap hypothesis test for two independent samples."""
|
|
74
|
+
rng = rng or np.random.default_rng()
|
|
75
|
+
obs = a.mean() - b.mean()
|
|
76
|
+
combined_mean = np.concatenate([a, b]).mean()
|
|
77
|
+
a_shift = a - a.mean() + combined_mean
|
|
78
|
+
b_shift = b - b.mean() + combined_mean
|
|
79
|
+
na, nb = len(a), len(b)
|
|
80
|
+
idx_a = rng.integers(0, na, size=(n_resamples, na))
|
|
81
|
+
idx_b = rng.integers(0, nb, size=(n_resamples, nb))
|
|
82
|
+
stats = a_shift[idx_a].mean(axis=1) - b_shift[idx_b].mean(axis=1)
|
|
83
|
+
count = np.sum(np.abs(stats) >= abs(obs) - 1e-9)
|
|
84
|
+
return float((count + 1) / (n_resamples + 1))
|
|
85
|
+
|
|
86
|
+
|
|
87
|
+
def mcnemar_test(a, b, correction=True, exact=None):
|
|
88
|
+
"""McNemar's test on paired binary (0/1 correctness) outcomes.
|
|
89
|
+
|
|
90
|
+
Returns (p_value, n01, n10, statistic) where n01 = b-correct-only,
|
|
91
|
+
n10 = a-correct-only, statistic is None when the exact binomial test is used.
|
|
92
|
+
"""
|
|
93
|
+
a = np.asarray(a)
|
|
94
|
+
b = np.asarray(b)
|
|
95
|
+
n01 = int(np.sum((a == 0) & (b == 1)))
|
|
96
|
+
n10 = int(np.sum((a == 1) & (b == 0)))
|
|
97
|
+
n = n01 + n10
|
|
98
|
+
if exact is None:
|
|
99
|
+
exact = n < 25
|
|
100
|
+
if n == 0:
|
|
101
|
+
return 1.0, n01, n10, 0.0
|
|
102
|
+
if exact:
|
|
103
|
+
k = min(n01, n10)
|
|
104
|
+
p = _scipy_stats.binomtest(k, n, p=0.5, alternative="two-sided").pvalue
|
|
105
|
+
return float(p), n01, n10, None
|
|
106
|
+
if correction:
|
|
107
|
+
statistic = (abs(n01 - n10) - 1) ** 2 / n
|
|
108
|
+
else:
|
|
109
|
+
statistic = (n01 - n10) ** 2 / n
|
|
110
|
+
p = float(1 - _scipy_stats.chi2.cdf(statistic, df=1))
|
|
111
|
+
return p, n01, n10, float(statistic)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
"""Adapters that load external eval outputs into evalci's per-item DataFrame schema."""
|
|
2
|
+
from . import csv, helm, lm_eval_harness
|
|
3
|
+
from .csv import load as load_csv
|
|
4
|
+
from .helm import load as load_helm
|
|
5
|
+
from .lm_eval_harness import load as load_lm_eval_harness
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
__all__ = ["load_lm_eval_harness", "load_helm", "load_csv", "lm_eval_harness", "helm", "csv"]
|