conforme 0.1.0__tar.gz

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  1. conforme-0.1.0/LICENSE +21 -0
  2. conforme-0.1.0/PKG-INFO +216 -0
  3. conforme-0.1.0/README.md +181 -0
  4. conforme-0.1.0/pyproject.toml +97 -0
  5. conforme-0.1.0/pyproject.toml.orig +84 -0
  6. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/__init__.py +81 -0
  7. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/backtest/__init__.py +6 -0
  8. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/backtest/forecasts.py +142 -0
  9. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/backtest/replay.py +96 -0
  10. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/__init__.py +42 -0
  11. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/calibrators/__init__.py +25 -0
  12. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/calibrators/aci.py +42 -0
  13. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/calibrators/base.py +97 -0
  14. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/calibrators/ranks.py +92 -0
  15. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/calibrators/risk.py +60 -0
  16. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/calibrators/split.py +120 -0
  17. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/calibrators/tracker.py +33 -0
  18. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/losses.py +31 -0
  19. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/scores.py +44 -0
  20. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/conformal/targets.py +47 -0
  21. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/data/__init__.py +6 -0
  22. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/data/hierarchy.py +103 -0
  23. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/data/panel.py +56 -0
  24. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/decision/__init__.py +6 -0
  25. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/decision/lost_sales.py +43 -0
  26. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/decision/policy.py +27 -0
  27. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/forecast/__init__.py +16 -0
  28. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/forecast/models/__init__.py +10 -0
  29. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/forecast/models/base.py +67 -0
  30. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/forecast/models/frames.py +83 -0
  31. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/forecast/models/mlforecast.py +100 -0
  32. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/forecast/models/naive.py +24 -0
  33. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/forecast/models/neuralforecast.py +77 -0
  34. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/forecast/models/statsforecast.py +32 -0
  35. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/forecast/reconcile.py +70 -0
  36. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/metrics.py +60 -0
  37. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/online/__init__.py +6 -0
  38. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/online/ledger.py +119 -0
  39. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/online/state.py +33 -0
  40. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/online/step.py +70 -0
  41. conforme-0.1.0/src/conforme/py.typed +0 -0
conforme-0.1.0/LICENSE ADDED
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+ MIT License
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+
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+ Copyright (c) 2026 Valentin Dusserre
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+
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+ Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
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+ of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
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+ in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
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+ to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
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+ copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
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+ furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
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+
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+ The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
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+ copies or substantial portions of the Software.
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+
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+ THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
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+ IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
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+ FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
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+ AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
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+ LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
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+ OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
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+ SOFTWARE.
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+ Metadata-Version: 2.4
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+ Name: conforme
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+ Version: 0.1.0
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+ Summary: Conformal forecasting: point forecasts, hierarchy reconciliation, and calibrated bands.
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+ Keywords: conformal prediction,forecasting,time series,hierarchical reconciliation,prediction intervals,inventory
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+ Author: Valentin Dusserre
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+ Author-email: Valentin Dusserre <valentindusserre@gmail.com>
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+ License-Expression: MIT
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+ License-File: LICENSE
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+ Classifier: Development Status :: 3 - Alpha
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+ Classifier: Intended Audience :: Science/Research
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+ Classifier: Intended Audience :: Developers
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+ Classifier: Operating System :: OS Independent
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3 :: Only
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+ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12
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+ Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Mathematics
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+ Classifier: Typing :: Typed
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+ Requires-Dist: numpy
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+ Requires-Dist: pandas
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+ Requires-Dist: scipy
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+ Requires-Dist: mlforecast ; extra == 'ml'
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+ Requires-Dist: neuralforecast ; extra == 'neural'
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+ Requires-Dist: statsforecast ; extra == 'stats'
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+ Requires-Python: >=3.12
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+ Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme
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+ Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme
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+ Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/issues
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+ Project-URL: Documentation, https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/tree/main/docs
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+ Project-URL: Changelog, https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/CHANGELOG.md
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+ Provides-Extra: ml
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+ Provides-Extra: neural
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+ Provides-Extra: stats
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+ Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
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+
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+ # Conforme
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+
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+ [![CI](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/actions/workflows/ci.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/actions/workflows/ci.yml)
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+ [![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/badge/license-MIT-blue.svg)](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/LICENSE)
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+ ![Python 3.12+](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.12%2B-blue.svg)
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+
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+ Conforme is a conformal forecasting library for panels of time series. It makes point
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+ forecasts at many origins, reconciles them over a hierarchy, and calibrates bands and
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+ bounds from out-of-sample residuals.
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+
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+ ## Install
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+
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+ Install `conforme` from PyPI:
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+
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+ ```sh
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+ pip install conforme
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+ # or
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+ uv add conforme
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+ ```
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+
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+ The vendor model adapters need an extra: `stats` (statsforecast), `ml` (mlforecast), or
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+ `neural` (neuralforecast).
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+
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+ ```sh
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+ pip install "conforme[stats]"
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+ ```
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+
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+ ## Quick start
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+
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+ ```python
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+ import numpy as np
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+ import pandas as pd
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+
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+ from conforme import Absolute, BottomUp, Hierarchy, LeadTime, Panel, SeasonalNaive, Signed
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+ from conforme import SplitQuantile, Step, replay, rolling_forecasts
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+ from conforme.metrics import coverage
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+
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+ rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
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+ series = np.array(["a", "b", "c"])
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+ periods = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=120, freq="D")
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+ panel = Panel(series, periods, rng.poisson(5.0, (3, 120)), "D")
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+ hierarchy = Hierarchy.from_attributes(
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+ series, pd.DataFrame({"group": ["x", "x", "y"]}, index=series)
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+ )
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+
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+ origins = np.arange(60, 113) # each origin is the index of the last observed period
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+ run = rolling_forecasts(panel, hierarchy, SeasonalNaive(7), BottomUp(hierarchy), origins, 7)
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+ actuals = hierarchy.aggregate(panel.values)
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+
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+ calibrator = SplitQuantile(0.9, window=28)
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+ bands = replay(run, actuals, target=Step(), score=Absolute(), calibrator=calibrator)
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+ bound = replay(run, actuals, target=LeadTime(7), score=Signed(), calibrator=calibrator)
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+ print(coverage(bands.target, bands.lower, bands.upper))
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+ ```
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+
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+ ## Concepts
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+
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+ Shapes use these axes: B bottom series, T periods, N nodes with bottoms first,
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+ S forecast series (B for `BottomUp`, N otherwise), O origins, H forecast steps, and
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+ C target columns (H for `Step`, 1 for `LeadTime`).
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+
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+ ![Panel and Hierarchy go to the Forecaster, base forecasts to the Reconciler, points to the Calibrator, bounds to order_up_to and settle](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Vzlentin/conforme/main/docs/pipeline.png)
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+
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+ | Stage | Names |
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+ |---|---|
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+ | Data | `Panel`, `Hierarchy`, `Covariate` |
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+ | Forecast | `Forecaster`, `Reconciler` (`BottomUp`, `Identity`, `WlsStruct`), `rolling_forecasts` |
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+ | Calibrate | `Target` (`Step`, `LeadTime`), `Score` (`Absolute`, `Signed`), `Loss` (`Miss`), `Calibrator` (`SplitQuantile`, `ACI`, `QuantileTracker`, `RiskControl`), `step`, `replay` |
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+ | Decide | `critical_ratio`, `order_up_to`, `settle` |
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+ | Measure | `conforme.metrics`: coverage, width, interval score, pinball, cost |
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+
107
+ Two rules hold everywhere. A model reads only its window, so a later value cannot
108
+ change a point unless a covariate declares it known ahead. A calibrator sees a score
109
+ only once its target is known, and before the origin that knows it issues.
110
+
111
+ [Architecture](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/docs/architecture.md) has the shapes and the modules.
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+
113
+ ## Write a calibrator
114
+
115
+ A calibrator owns its target, a level or a loss, and is three functions of an explicit
116
+ state. `conforme.online` handles the origins, the delays, and the indexing. A new method
117
+ is one file in `conforme/conformal/calibrators/` that imports only `calibrators.base`,
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+ `calibrators.ranks`, and `conformal.losses`. This is the whole of a quantile tracker:
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+
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+ ```python
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+ import numpy as np
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+
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+ from conforme.conformal.calibrators.base import Calibrator
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+
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+
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+ class Tracker(Calibrator):
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+ def __init__(self, level, lr):
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+ self.level = level
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+ self.lr = lr
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+
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+ def initial_state(self, n_nodes, n_columns):
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+ return {"q": np.zeros((n_nodes, n_columns))}
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+
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+ def update(self, state, feedback):
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+ q = state["q"].copy()
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+ for row, column in enumerate(feedback.column): # one row = one origin, one column
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+ miss = feedback.scores[row] > feedback.issued[row]
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+ q[:, column] += self.lr * (miss - (1 - self.level))
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+ return {"q": q}
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+
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+ def threshold(self, state):
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+ return state["q"].astype(np.float32)
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+ ```
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+
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+ Keep the state in numpy arrays. Then a product can save it after each origin with
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+ `conforme.online.state.flatten` and continue from it.
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+
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+ ## Models
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+
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+ | Model | Kind | Install |
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+ |---|---|---|
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+ | `conforme.forecast.models.naive.SeasonalNaive` | local | core |
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+ | `conforme.forecast.models.statsforecast.StatsForecastModel` | local, any `statsforecast.models` model | `conforme[stats]` |
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+ | `conforme.forecast.models.mlforecast.MLForecast` | global regressor with lags and covariates | `conforme[ml]` |
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+ | `conforme.forecast.models.neuralforecast.NeuralForecast` | global network from `neuralforecast.models` | `conforme[neural]` |
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+
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+ ```python
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+ from lightgbm import LGBMRegressor
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+ from conforme import BottomUp, Covariate, rolling_forecasts
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+ from conforme.forecast.models.mlforecast import MLForecast
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+
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+ model = MLForecast(
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+ LGBMRegressor(), lags=[7, 14, 28], features=["price"], fit_periods=365, lookback=84
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+ )
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+ price = Covariate(prices, known_ahead=True, aggregate="mean") # [B, T + H]
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+ run = rolling_forecasts(
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+ panel,
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+ hierarchy,
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+ model,
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+ BottomUp(hierarchy),
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+ origins,
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+ 28,
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+ refit_every=7,
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+ covariates={"price": price},
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+ )
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+ ```
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+
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+ ## Benchmarks
179
+
180
+ `bench/` is a folder of scripts. They load benchmark data from a directory, run
181
+ benchmark protocols, and compare calibrators. They import the installed `conforme`.
182
+ Raw data is not in Git.
183
+
184
+ | Script | Content |
185
+ |---|---|
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+ | `vn2.py` | `load(path)`: weekly VN2 sales with the out-of-stock mask, hierarchy, and starting stock. `play(data, bounds)`: six orders up to the bounds, eight settled weeks, holding 0.2 and shortage 1.0 |
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+ | `m5.py` | `load(path)`: daily M5 sales and the 12-level hierarchy (42,840 nodes). `prices(horizon)`: the sell price covariate |
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+ | `compare.py` | `compare(forecasts, actuals, calibrators, target, score, level)`: one row of metrics per method, on the cells where each method was ready |
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+
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+ `vn2_conformal.py` runs the whole VN2 path in about one second:
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+
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+ ```sh
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+ uv run python bench/vn2_conformal.py data/vn2
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+ ```
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+
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+ ## Documents
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+
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+ - [Architecture](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/docs/architecture.md): modules, array contracts, and costs.
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+ - [Semantics](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/docs/semantics.md): the calibration rules.
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+
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+ ## Development
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+
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+ ```sh
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+ uv sync --group dev
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+ uv run pytest
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+ uv run ruff check .
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+ uv run ruff format --check .
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+ uv run ty check src/
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+ uv build --no-sources
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+ ```
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+
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+ See [Contributing](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md).
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+
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+ ## License
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+
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+ [MIT](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/LICENSE)
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+ # Conforme
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+
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+ [![CI](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/actions/workflows/ci.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/actions/workflows/ci.yml)
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+ [![License: MIT](https://img.shields.io/badge/license-MIT-blue.svg)](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/LICENSE)
5
+ ![Python 3.12+](https://img.shields.io/badge/python-3.12%2B-blue.svg)
6
+
7
+ Conforme is a conformal forecasting library for panels of time series. It makes point
8
+ forecasts at many origins, reconciles them over a hierarchy, and calibrates bands and
9
+ bounds from out-of-sample residuals.
10
+
11
+ ## Install
12
+
13
+ Install `conforme` from PyPI:
14
+
15
+ ```sh
16
+ pip install conforme
17
+ # or
18
+ uv add conforme
19
+ ```
20
+
21
+ The vendor model adapters need an extra: `stats` (statsforecast), `ml` (mlforecast), or
22
+ `neural` (neuralforecast).
23
+
24
+ ```sh
25
+ pip install "conforme[stats]"
26
+ ```
27
+
28
+ ## Quick start
29
+
30
+ ```python
31
+ import numpy as np
32
+ import pandas as pd
33
+
34
+ from conforme import Absolute, BottomUp, Hierarchy, LeadTime, Panel, SeasonalNaive, Signed
35
+ from conforme import SplitQuantile, Step, replay, rolling_forecasts
36
+ from conforme.metrics import coverage
37
+
38
+ rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
39
+ series = np.array(["a", "b", "c"])
40
+ periods = pd.date_range("2024-01-01", periods=120, freq="D")
41
+ panel = Panel(series, periods, rng.poisson(5.0, (3, 120)), "D")
42
+ hierarchy = Hierarchy.from_attributes(
43
+ series, pd.DataFrame({"group": ["x", "x", "y"]}, index=series)
44
+ )
45
+
46
+ origins = np.arange(60, 113) # each origin is the index of the last observed period
47
+ run = rolling_forecasts(panel, hierarchy, SeasonalNaive(7), BottomUp(hierarchy), origins, 7)
48
+ actuals = hierarchy.aggregate(panel.values)
49
+
50
+ calibrator = SplitQuantile(0.9, window=28)
51
+ bands = replay(run, actuals, target=Step(), score=Absolute(), calibrator=calibrator)
52
+ bound = replay(run, actuals, target=LeadTime(7), score=Signed(), calibrator=calibrator)
53
+ print(coverage(bands.target, bands.lower, bands.upper))
54
+ ```
55
+
56
+ ## Concepts
57
+
58
+ Shapes use these axes: B bottom series, T periods, N nodes with bottoms first,
59
+ S forecast series (B for `BottomUp`, N otherwise), O origins, H forecast steps, and
60
+ C target columns (H for `Step`, 1 for `LeadTime`).
61
+
62
+ ![Panel and Hierarchy go to the Forecaster, base forecasts to the Reconciler, points to the Calibrator, bounds to order_up_to and settle](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Vzlentin/conforme/main/docs/pipeline.png)
63
+
64
+ | Stage | Names |
65
+ |---|---|
66
+ | Data | `Panel`, `Hierarchy`, `Covariate` |
67
+ | Forecast | `Forecaster`, `Reconciler` (`BottomUp`, `Identity`, `WlsStruct`), `rolling_forecasts` |
68
+ | Calibrate | `Target` (`Step`, `LeadTime`), `Score` (`Absolute`, `Signed`), `Loss` (`Miss`), `Calibrator` (`SplitQuantile`, `ACI`, `QuantileTracker`, `RiskControl`), `step`, `replay` |
69
+ | Decide | `critical_ratio`, `order_up_to`, `settle` |
70
+ | Measure | `conforme.metrics`: coverage, width, interval score, pinball, cost |
71
+
72
+ Two rules hold everywhere. A model reads only its window, so a later value cannot
73
+ change a point unless a covariate declares it known ahead. A calibrator sees a score
74
+ only once its target is known, and before the origin that knows it issues.
75
+
76
+ [Architecture](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/docs/architecture.md) has the shapes and the modules.
77
+
78
+ ## Write a calibrator
79
+
80
+ A calibrator owns its target, a level or a loss, and is three functions of an explicit
81
+ state. `conforme.online` handles the origins, the delays, and the indexing. A new method
82
+ is one file in `conforme/conformal/calibrators/` that imports only `calibrators.base`,
83
+ `calibrators.ranks`, and `conformal.losses`. This is the whole of a quantile tracker:
84
+
85
+ ```python
86
+ import numpy as np
87
+
88
+ from conforme.conformal.calibrators.base import Calibrator
89
+
90
+
91
+ class Tracker(Calibrator):
92
+ def __init__(self, level, lr):
93
+ self.level = level
94
+ self.lr = lr
95
+
96
+ def initial_state(self, n_nodes, n_columns):
97
+ return {"q": np.zeros((n_nodes, n_columns))}
98
+
99
+ def update(self, state, feedback):
100
+ q = state["q"].copy()
101
+ for row, column in enumerate(feedback.column): # one row = one origin, one column
102
+ miss = feedback.scores[row] > feedback.issued[row]
103
+ q[:, column] += self.lr * (miss - (1 - self.level))
104
+ return {"q": q}
105
+
106
+ def threshold(self, state):
107
+ return state["q"].astype(np.float32)
108
+ ```
109
+
110
+ Keep the state in numpy arrays. Then a product can save it after each origin with
111
+ `conforme.online.state.flatten` and continue from it.
112
+
113
+ ## Models
114
+
115
+ | Model | Kind | Install |
116
+ |---|---|---|
117
+ | `conforme.forecast.models.naive.SeasonalNaive` | local | core |
118
+ | `conforme.forecast.models.statsforecast.StatsForecastModel` | local, any `statsforecast.models` model | `conforme[stats]` |
119
+ | `conforme.forecast.models.mlforecast.MLForecast` | global regressor with lags and covariates | `conforme[ml]` |
120
+ | `conforme.forecast.models.neuralforecast.NeuralForecast` | global network from `neuralforecast.models` | `conforme[neural]` |
121
+
122
+ ```python
123
+ from lightgbm import LGBMRegressor
124
+ from conforme import BottomUp, Covariate, rolling_forecasts
125
+ from conforme.forecast.models.mlforecast import MLForecast
126
+
127
+ model = MLForecast(
128
+ LGBMRegressor(), lags=[7, 14, 28], features=["price"], fit_periods=365, lookback=84
129
+ )
130
+ price = Covariate(prices, known_ahead=True, aggregate="mean") # [B, T + H]
131
+ run = rolling_forecasts(
132
+ panel,
133
+ hierarchy,
134
+ model,
135
+ BottomUp(hierarchy),
136
+ origins,
137
+ 28,
138
+ refit_every=7,
139
+ covariates={"price": price},
140
+ )
141
+ ```
142
+
143
+ ## Benchmarks
144
+
145
+ `bench/` is a folder of scripts. They load benchmark data from a directory, run
146
+ benchmark protocols, and compare calibrators. They import the installed `conforme`.
147
+ Raw data is not in Git.
148
+
149
+ | Script | Content |
150
+ |---|---|
151
+ | `vn2.py` | `load(path)`: weekly VN2 sales with the out-of-stock mask, hierarchy, and starting stock. `play(data, bounds)`: six orders up to the bounds, eight settled weeks, holding 0.2 and shortage 1.0 |
152
+ | `m5.py` | `load(path)`: daily M5 sales and the 12-level hierarchy (42,840 nodes). `prices(horizon)`: the sell price covariate |
153
+ | `compare.py` | `compare(forecasts, actuals, calibrators, target, score, level)`: one row of metrics per method, on the cells where each method was ready |
154
+
155
+ `vn2_conformal.py` runs the whole VN2 path in about one second:
156
+
157
+ ```sh
158
+ uv run python bench/vn2_conformal.py data/vn2
159
+ ```
160
+
161
+ ## Documents
162
+
163
+ - [Architecture](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/docs/architecture.md): modules, array contracts, and costs.
164
+ - [Semantics](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/docs/semantics.md): the calibration rules.
165
+
166
+ ## Development
167
+
168
+ ```sh
169
+ uv sync --group dev
170
+ uv run pytest
171
+ uv run ruff check .
172
+ uv run ruff format --check .
173
+ uv run ty check src/
174
+ uv build --no-sources
175
+ ```
176
+
177
+ See [Contributing](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md).
178
+
179
+ ## License
180
+
181
+ [MIT](https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/LICENSE)
@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
1
+ [project]
2
+ name = "conforme"
3
+ version = "0.1.0"
4
+ description = "Conformal forecasting: point forecasts, hierarchy reconciliation, and calibrated bands."
5
+ readme = "README.md"
6
+ requires-python = ">=3.12"
7
+ license = "MIT"
8
+ license-files = ["LICENSE"]
9
+ keywords = [
10
+ "conformal prediction",
11
+ "forecasting",
12
+ "time series",
13
+ "hierarchical reconciliation",
14
+ "prediction intervals",
15
+ "inventory",
16
+ ]
17
+ classifiers = [
18
+ "Development Status :: 3 - Alpha",
19
+ "Intended Audience :: Science/Research",
20
+ "Intended Audience :: Developers",
21
+ "Operating System :: OS Independent",
22
+ "Programming Language :: Python :: 3",
23
+ "Programming Language :: Python :: 3 :: Only",
24
+ "Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12",
25
+ "Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Mathematics",
26
+ "Typing :: Typed",
27
+ ]
28
+ dependencies = [
29
+ "numpy",
30
+ "pandas",
31
+ "scipy",
32
+ ]
33
+
34
+ [[project.authors]]
35
+ name = "Valentin Dusserre"
36
+ email = "valentindusserre@gmail.com"
37
+
38
+ [project.urls]
39
+ Homepage = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme"
40
+ Repository = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme"
41
+ Issues = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/issues"
42
+ Documentation = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/tree/main/docs"
43
+ Changelog = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/CHANGELOG.md"
44
+
45
+ [project.optional-dependencies]
46
+ stats = ["statsforecast"]
47
+ ml = ["mlforecast"]
48
+ neural = ["neuralforecast"]
49
+
50
+ [dependency-groups]
51
+ dev = [
52
+ "ipykernel>=7.3.0",
53
+ "mlforecast",
54
+ "neuralforecast",
55
+ "pytest",
56
+ "statsforecast",
57
+ "ruff",
58
+ "ty",
59
+ ]
60
+
61
+ [build-system]
62
+ requires = ["uv_build>=0.12,<0.13"]
63
+ build-backend = "uv_build"
64
+
65
+ [tool.pytest.ini_options]
66
+ addopts = "-ra --strict-markers"
67
+ filterwarnings = [
68
+ "ignore:.*does not have many workers",
69
+ "ignore:GPU available but not used",
70
+ "ignore:.*LeafSpec.*is deprecated",
71
+ "ignore:The copy keyword is deprecated",
72
+ "ignore:The given NumPy array is not writable",
73
+ ]
74
+ testpaths = ["tests"]
75
+
76
+ [tool.ruff]
77
+ line-length = 100
78
+ target-version = "py312"
79
+ src = [
80
+ "src",
81
+ "tests",
82
+ "bench",
83
+ ]
84
+
85
+ [tool.ruff.lint]
86
+ select = [
87
+ "E",
88
+ "F",
89
+ "W",
90
+ "I",
91
+ "UP",
92
+ "B",
93
+ "SIM",
94
+ ]
95
+
96
+ [tool.ty.environment]
97
+ python-version = "3.12"
@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
1
+ [project]
2
+ name = "conforme"
3
+ version = "0.1.0"
4
+ description = "Conformal forecasting: point forecasts, hierarchy reconciliation, and calibrated bands."
5
+ readme = "README.md"
6
+ requires-python = ">=3.12"
7
+ license = "MIT"
8
+ license-files = ["LICENSE"]
9
+ authors = [{ name = "Valentin Dusserre", email = "valentindusserre@gmail.com" }]
10
+ keywords = [
11
+ "conformal prediction",
12
+ "forecasting",
13
+ "time series",
14
+ "hierarchical reconciliation",
15
+ "prediction intervals",
16
+ "inventory",
17
+ ]
18
+ classifiers = [
19
+ "Development Status :: 3 - Alpha",
20
+ "Intended Audience :: Science/Research",
21
+ "Intended Audience :: Developers",
22
+ "Operating System :: OS Independent",
23
+ "Programming Language :: Python :: 3",
24
+ "Programming Language :: Python :: 3 :: Only",
25
+ "Programming Language :: Python :: 3.12",
26
+ "Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Mathematics",
27
+ "Typing :: Typed",
28
+ ]
29
+ dependencies = [
30
+ "numpy",
31
+ "pandas",
32
+ "scipy",
33
+ ]
34
+
35
+ [project.urls]
36
+ Homepage = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme"
37
+ Repository = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme"
38
+ Issues = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/issues"
39
+ Documentation = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/tree/main/docs"
40
+ Changelog = "https://github.com/Vzlentin/conforme/blob/main/CHANGELOG.md"
41
+
42
+ [project.optional-dependencies]
43
+ stats = ["statsforecast"]
44
+ ml = ["mlforecast"]
45
+ neural = ["neuralforecast"]
46
+
47
+ [dependency-groups]
48
+ dev = [
49
+ "ipykernel>=7.3.0",
50
+ "mlforecast",
51
+ "neuralforecast",
52
+ "pytest",
53
+ "statsforecast",
54
+ "ruff",
55
+ "ty",
56
+ ]
57
+
58
+
59
+ [build-system]
60
+ requires = ["uv_build>=0.12,<0.13"]
61
+ build-backend = "uv_build"
62
+
63
+ [tool.pytest.ini_options]
64
+ addopts = "-ra --strict-markers"
65
+ # Warnings raised inside vendor libraries about their own internals.
66
+ filterwarnings = [
67
+ "ignore:.*does not have many workers",
68
+ "ignore:GPU available but not used",
69
+ "ignore:.*LeafSpec.*is deprecated",
70
+ "ignore:The copy keyword is deprecated",
71
+ "ignore:The given NumPy array is not writable",
72
+ ]
73
+ testpaths = ["tests"]
74
+
75
+ [tool.ruff]
76
+ line-length = 100
77
+ target-version = "py312"
78
+ src = ["src", "tests", "bench"]
79
+
80
+ [tool.ruff.lint]
81
+ select = ["E", "F", "W", "I", "UP", "B", "SIM"]
82
+
83
+ [tool.ty.environment]
84
+ python-version = "3.12"
@@ -0,0 +1,81 @@
1
+ """Conforme: point forecasts, hierarchy reconciliation, conformal bounds, and orders.
2
+
3
+ Vendor model adapters live in `conforme.forecast.models` and need their extra installed.
4
+ """
5
+
6
+ from conforme.backtest import Forecasts, Replay, replay, rolling_forecasts
7
+ from conforme.conformal import (
8
+ ACI,
9
+ Absolute,
10
+ Calibrator,
11
+ Feedback,
12
+ LeadTime,
13
+ Level,
14
+ Loss,
15
+ Miss,
16
+ QuantileCalibrator,
17
+ QuantileTracker,
18
+ RiskControl,
19
+ Score,
20
+ Signed,
21
+ SplitQuantile,
22
+ State,
23
+ Step,
24
+ Target,
25
+ )
26
+ from conforme.data import Hierarchy, Panel
27
+ from conforme.decision import Settlement, critical_ratio, order_up_to, settle
28
+ from conforme.forecast import (
29
+ BottomUp,
30
+ Covariate,
31
+ Fitted,
32
+ Forecaster,
33
+ Identity,
34
+ Reconciler,
35
+ SeasonalNaive,
36
+ Window,
37
+ WlsStruct,
38
+ )
39
+ from conforme.online import Issue, initial_state, step
40
+
41
+ __all__ = [
42
+ "ACI",
43
+ "Absolute",
44
+ "BottomUp",
45
+ "Calibrator",
46
+ "Covariate",
47
+ "Feedback",
48
+ "Fitted",
49
+ "Forecaster",
50
+ "Forecasts",
51
+ "Hierarchy",
52
+ "Identity",
53
+ "Issue",
54
+ "LeadTime",
55
+ "Level",
56
+ "Loss",
57
+ "Miss",
58
+ "QuantileCalibrator",
59
+ "Panel",
60
+ "QuantileTracker",
61
+ "RiskControl",
62
+ "Reconciler",
63
+ "Replay",
64
+ "Score",
65
+ "SeasonalNaive",
66
+ "Settlement",
67
+ "Signed",
68
+ "SplitQuantile",
69
+ "State",
70
+ "Step",
71
+ "Target",
72
+ "Window",
73
+ "WlsStruct",
74
+ "critical_ratio",
75
+ "initial_state",
76
+ "order_up_to",
77
+ "replay",
78
+ "rolling_forecasts",
79
+ "settle",
80
+ "step",
81
+ ]
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
1
+ """Backtests: rolling-origin forecasts, and online calibration replayed over them."""
2
+
3
+ from conforme.backtest.forecasts import Forecasts, rolling_forecasts
4
+ from conforme.backtest.replay import Replay, replay
5
+
6
+ __all__ = ["Forecasts", "Replay", "replay", "rolling_forecasts"]