coauthored 0.1.0__tar.gz

coauthored-0.1.0/.gitignore

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+__pycache__/
+*.py[cod]
+.venv/
+.pytest_cache/
+.mypy_cache/
+.ruff_cache/
+.coverage
+coverage.xml
+dist/
+build/
+*.egg-info/
+.env
+.env.*
+# clones and raw per-commit logs never enter git (aggregates only; raw goes to the HF dataset)
+work/
+data/raw/
+cache/
+
+# planning files stay private (lesson from sandbank/cpilens history rewrites)
+MISSION.md
+DECISIONS.md
+paper/paper.filled.md

coauthored-0.1.0/LICENSE

@@ -0,0 +1,202 @@
+
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+   9. Accepting Warranty or Additional Liability. While redistributing
+      the Work or Derivative Works thereof, You may choose to offer,
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+
+   END OF TERMS AND CONDITIONS
+
+   APPENDIX: How to apply the Apache License to your work.
+
+      To apply the Apache License to your work, attach the following
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+   Copyright 2026 Thanatchon Chongmankhong
+
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coauthored-0.1.0/PKG-INFO

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+Metadata-Version: 2.5
+Name: coauthored
+Version: 0.1.0
+Summary: Count AI-attributed commits (Co-authored-by trailers, AI-agent accounts, generated-with markers) in any git history, and the pre-registered study of AI co-authorship in the repositories that build AI.
+Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored
+Project-URL: Paper, https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/paper/coauthored.pdf
+Project-URL: Dataset, https://huggingface.co/datasets/thanatchon36/coauthored
+Project-URL: Issues, https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/issues
+Author: Thanatchon Chongmankhong
+License-Expression: Apache-2.0
+License-File: LICENSE
+Keywords: ai-attribution,co-authored-by,coding-agents,git,mining-software-repositories,provenance
+Classifier: License :: OSI Approved :: Apache Software License
+Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3
+Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Artificial Intelligence
+Classifier: Topic :: Software Development :: Version Control :: Git
+Requires-Python: >=3.11
+Requires-Dist: polars>=1.0
+Requires-Dist: pydantic>=2.7
+Requires-Dist: pyyaml>=6
+Requires-Dist: typer>=0.12
+Requires-Dist: zstandard>=0.22
+Provides-Extra: analysis
+Requires-Dist: matplotlib>=3.9; extra == 'analysis'
+Requires-Dist: numpy>=1.26; extra == 'analysis'
+Requires-Dist: scipy>=1.13; extra == 'analysis'
+Requires-Dist: statsmodels>=0.14; extra == 'analysis'
+Description-Content-Type: text/markdown
+
+<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/main/docs/assets/logo.svg" alt="coauthored logo" width="120"></p>
+
+<h1 align="center">coauthored</h1>
+
+[![CI](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/actions/workflows/ci.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/actions/workflows/ci.yml)
+[![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/license-Apache--2.0-green)](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/LICENSE)
+[![Data](https://img.shields.io/badge/data-CC--BY--4.0-blue)](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/LICENSE-DATA)
+[![Status](https://img.shields.io/badge/status-preprint-orange)](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/STATUS.md)
+[![Pre-registered](https://img.shields.io/badge/pre--registered-27a6847-blue)](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/PREREGISTRATION.md)
+
+⬇️ **[Download the PDF](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/paper/coauthored.pdf)** ·
+🤗 **[Dataset](https://huggingface.co/datasets/thanatchon36/coauthored)** ·
+📊 **[Figures](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/results/figures/)** · 🧾 **[Pre-registration](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/PREREGISTRATION.md)** ·
+🔀 **[Deviations](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/DEVIATIONS.md)** · 🔁 **[Reproduce](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/REPRODUCE.md)** · ⚖️ **[Responsible use](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/RESPONSIBLE_USE.md)**
+
+**How Much of the Code That Trains the Models Declares AI Help? AI Co-Authorship Trailers in AI Infrastructure
+Repositories, 2023–2026.** `coauthored` counts the commits in a git history that carry an explicit AI attribution: a
+`Co-authored-by:` trailer naming an AI tool, a commit by an AI-agent account, or a tool's generated-with marker.
+The pre-registered study in this repository measures that share month by month in 42 open-source repositories that
+train, fine-tune, evaluate and serve AI models (S1), 12 open-source coding-agent harnesses (S2), and 42 popular
+non-AI repositories matched on stars, language and activity (S3), from the full history of all 96 read on one day.
+
+> Independent personal research. Public data only. Does not represent the views of any employer or institution.
+
+## Result
+
+<p align="center"><img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/main/results/figures/f1_monthly_share.png" alt="Monthly AI-attributed share of commits by stratum, 2023 to September 2026" width="860"></p>
+
+In July–September 2026, **8.7% of commits to AI-infrastructure repositories were AI-attributed** (95% CI
+4.0–14.5%), about one in 11, up from 0.5% over 2025 and almost none in 2024. **Matched non-AI repositories were
+at a similar level**, 7.1% (2.3–12.6%), and the coding-agent harnesses, which started earlier, were not clearly
+ahead (10.3%, 1.6–23.7%). The intervals are too wide to tell the groups apart: there is no evidence that "AI
+building AI" runs ahead of popular open source, and no proof that it does not.
+
+| pre-registered hypothesis | result |
+|---|---|
+| H1 S1 share in 2026-Q3 ≥ 5% | supported on the point estimate (8.7%); the CI reaches 4.0% |
+| H2 S1 above S3 every month, odds ratio ≥ 2 | not supported (OR 1.24, CI 0.45–4.75) |
+| H3 S1 steeper than S3 | not supported (slope difference 0.025 logit/month, CI −0.080 to 0.077) |
+| H4 harnesses above S1 | not supported (+1.6 points, CI −9.0 to 15.8) |
+| H5 Claude Code the top tool every quarter from 2025-Q2 | not supported (it leads only from 2026-Q1) |
+| H6 ≥ 80% of attributed pull requests keep attribution after merge | **supported** (184 of 200, 92%) |
+| H7 disclosure policies, higher share (exploratory) | positive (+2.9 points), confounded |
+
+Every share is a **lower bound** on AI involvement, and an attributed commit is not a commit "written by AI":
+the trailer says a tool took part, not how much of the change it produced. Attribution is not adoption either:
+it can be switched off, lost at merge (rarely, in this sample), dropped when code is exported from an internal
+monorepo, or never added. The review of the draft and how each point was handled are in
+[docs/review.md](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/docs/review.md).
+
+## Run it on your own organisation
+
+```bash
+uv tool install git+https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored   # or: pip install git+https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored
+coauthored report --org <your-org>        # monthly AI-attributed share of every public repository since 2024-01
+```
+
+It lists the organisation's repositories with the GitHub CLI (`gh`, logged in), clones them with commit objects
+only, needs no paid service or API key, and prints repository-level aggregates. Read
+[RESPONSIBLE_USE.md](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/RESPONSIBLE_USE.md) before you publish anything: this measures projects, not people.
+
+## Reproduce the paper
+
+```bash
+uv sync --all-extras
+uv run coauthored analyze --draws 2000   # every table, figure and number, from committed aggregates, no network
+uv run coauthored paper                  # PDF and web page (needs pandoc and typst)
+```
+
+`analyze` is byte-reproducible. The paper build fills every number from `results/numbers.json` and refuses
+numbers typed by hand. [REPRODUCE.md](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/REPRODUCE.md) covers re-scanning the repositories and redrawing the
+survival sample.
+
+## What is here
+
+| path | content |
+|---|---|
+| `src/coauthored/` | scanner, signature matcher, aggregation, analysis, paper and dashboard builders |
+| `configs/` | frozen signature catalogue (52 entries, 28 tools, three public evidence commits each), bot list, repository lists |
+| `data/` | snapshot manifest (head SHAs), repository-month aggregates, survival, size and policy samples |
+| `results/` | `numbers.json`, tables, figures |
+| `paper/` | paper source, PDF, template |
+| `docs/` | phase reports, policy review, label sample, web paper and dashboard |
+
+As pre-registered, only aggregates are released: no per-commit records, and the survival and size samples carry
+no PR numbers or commit SHAs. The [Hugging Face dataset](https://huggingface.co/datasets/thanatchon36/coauthored) (aggregates only) is built by
+`scripts/build_hf_dataset.py`.
+
+## Citation
+
+See [CITATION.cff](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/CITATION.cff).
+
+## License
+
+Code: [Apache-2.0](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/LICENSE). Data: [CC BY 4.0](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/blob/main/LICENSE-DATA).

coauthored-0.1.0/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+<p align="center"><img src="docs/assets/logo.svg" alt="coauthored logo" width="120"></p>
+
+<h1 align="center">coauthored</h1>
+
+[![CI](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/actions/workflows/ci.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored/actions/workflows/ci.yml)
+[![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/license-Apache--2.0-green)](LICENSE)
+[![Data](https://img.shields.io/badge/data-CC--BY--4.0-blue)](LICENSE-DATA)
+[![Status](https://img.shields.io/badge/status-preprint-orange)](STATUS.md)
+[![Pre-registered](https://img.shields.io/badge/pre--registered-27a6847-blue)](PREREGISTRATION.md)
+
+⬇️ **[Download the PDF](paper/coauthored.pdf)** ·
+🤗 **[Dataset](https://huggingface.co/datasets/thanatchon36/coauthored)** ·
+📊 **[Figures](results/figures/)** · 🧾 **[Pre-registration](PREREGISTRATION.md)** ·
+🔀 **[Deviations](DEVIATIONS.md)** · 🔁 **[Reproduce](REPRODUCE.md)** · ⚖️ **[Responsible use](RESPONSIBLE_USE.md)**
+
+**How Much of the Code That Trains the Models Declares AI Help? AI Co-Authorship Trailers in AI Infrastructure
+Repositories, 2023–2026.** `coauthored` counts the commits in a git history that carry an explicit AI attribution: a
+`Co-authored-by:` trailer naming an AI tool, a commit by an AI-agent account, or a tool's generated-with marker.
+The pre-registered study in this repository measures that share month by month in 42 open-source repositories that
+train, fine-tune, evaluate and serve AI models (S1), 12 open-source coding-agent harnesses (S2), and 42 popular
+non-AI repositories matched on stars, language and activity (S3), from the full history of all 96 read on one day.
+
+> Independent personal research. Public data only. Does not represent the views of any employer or institution.
+
+## Result
+
+<p align="center"><img src="results/figures/f1_monthly_share.png" alt="Monthly AI-attributed share of commits by stratum, 2023 to September 2026" width="860"></p>
+
+In July–September 2026, **8.7% of commits to AI-infrastructure repositories were AI-attributed** (95% CI
+4.0–14.5%), about one in 11, up from 0.5% over 2025 and almost none in 2024. **Matched non-AI repositories were
+at a similar level**, 7.1% (2.3–12.6%), and the coding-agent harnesses, which started earlier, were not clearly
+ahead (10.3%, 1.6–23.7%). The intervals are too wide to tell the groups apart: there is no evidence that "AI
+building AI" runs ahead of popular open source, and no proof that it does not.
+
+| pre-registered hypothesis | result |
+|---|---|
+| H1 S1 share in 2026-Q3 ≥ 5% | supported on the point estimate (8.7%); the CI reaches 4.0% |
+| H2 S1 above S3 every month, odds ratio ≥ 2 | not supported (OR 1.24, CI 0.45–4.75) |
+| H3 S1 steeper than S3 | not supported (slope difference 0.025 logit/month, CI −0.080 to 0.077) |
+| H4 harnesses above S1 | not supported (+1.6 points, CI −9.0 to 15.8) |
+| H5 Claude Code the top tool every quarter from 2025-Q2 | not supported (it leads only from 2026-Q1) |
+| H6 ≥ 80% of attributed pull requests keep attribution after merge | **supported** (184 of 200, 92%) |
+| H7 disclosure policies, higher share (exploratory) | positive (+2.9 points), confounded |
+
+Every share is a **lower bound** on AI involvement, and an attributed commit is not a commit "written by AI":
+the trailer says a tool took part, not how much of the change it produced. Attribution is not adoption either:
+it can be switched off, lost at merge (rarely, in this sample), dropped when code is exported from an internal
+monorepo, or never added. The review of the draft and how each point was handled are in
+[docs/review.md](docs/review.md).
+
+## Run it on your own organisation
+
+```bash
+uv tool install git+https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored   # or: pip install git+https://github.com/thanatchon36/coauthored
+coauthored report --org <your-org>        # monthly AI-attributed share of every public repository since 2024-01
+```
+
+It lists the organisation's repositories with the GitHub CLI (`gh`, logged in), clones them with commit objects
+only, needs no paid service or API key, and prints repository-level aggregates. Read
+[RESPONSIBLE_USE.md](RESPONSIBLE_USE.md) before you publish anything: this measures projects, not people.
+
+## Reproduce the paper
+
+```bash
+uv sync --all-extras
+uv run coauthored analyze --draws 2000   # every table, figure and number, from committed aggregates, no network
+uv run coauthored paper                  # PDF and web page (needs pandoc and typst)
+```
+
+`analyze` is byte-reproducible. The paper build fills every number from `results/numbers.json` and refuses
+numbers typed by hand. [REPRODUCE.md](REPRODUCE.md) covers re-scanning the repositories and redrawing the
+survival sample.
+
+## What is here
+
+| path | content |
+|---|---|
+| `src/coauthored/` | scanner, signature matcher, aggregation, analysis, paper and dashboard builders |
+| `configs/` | frozen signature catalogue (52 entries, 28 tools, three public evidence commits each), bot list, repository lists |
+| `data/` | snapshot manifest (head SHAs), repository-month aggregates, survival, size and policy samples |
+| `results/` | `numbers.json`, tables, figures |
+| `paper/` | paper source, PDF, template |
+| `docs/` | phase reports, policy review, label sample, web paper and dashboard |
+
+As pre-registered, only aggregates are released: no per-commit records, and the survival and size samples carry
+no PR numbers or commit SHAs. The [Hugging Face dataset](https://huggingface.co/datasets/thanatchon36/coauthored) (aggregates only) is built by
+`scripts/build_hf_dataset.py`.
+
+## Citation
+
+See [CITATION.cff](CITATION.cff).
+
+## License
+
+Code: [Apache-2.0](LICENSE). Data: [CC BY 4.0](LICENSE-DATA).

coauthored-0.1.0/configs/bots.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+version: '1'
+bot_suffix_rule: true
+bots:
+- id: github-action-legacy
+  email: action@github\.com
+  query: author-email:action@github.com
+  notes: Identity commonly configured in workflows ("GitHub Action").
+  evidence:
+  - https://github.com/dennislee928/Smart_Zone/commit/6cb40c79aedbbe76b4e2e9685a400d45ebcdf470
+  - https://github.com/Brantford-Data/arena-tracker/commit/53b0a7bbe20c775acc2c847333c376aa9c45b259
+  - https://github.com/aikyalabs-dev/AikyaLabs-Simple-ChordTrack/commit/e576bb8488d4675d9ced513caf3b35dc63ab9edf
+- id: renovate-bot
+  email: bot@renovateapp\.com
+  query: author-email:bot@renovateapp.com
+  evidence:
+  - https://github.com/andrew-soltan-peloton/next-netlify-isr-test/commit/46bfeb349592979aa26d224c8987270f5650ac99
+  - https://github.com/Patocity/CityTech-blog-theme/commit/03a0fe91b0cb9ad1df290bd72039b0aebd6e0e47
+  - https://github.com/Coleus99/gatsby-starter-netlify-cms-2024/commit/187f832ee136dd61eb5d58a92bd03859a783a7a0
+- id: snyk-bot
+  email: snyk-bot@snyk\.io
+  query: author-email:snyk-bot@snyk.io
+  evidence:
+  - https://github.com/Cratis/Chronicle/commit/3db80b1845545acd2dcdfd727c7bba028d6e9c53
+  - https://github.com/mhoerche/dashy/commit/7990401be6ddde6af00dc0db7f493553e621ab2e
+  - https://github.com/KabriAcid/jambite/commit/d05416b7474a55dd0feca128dfcce4d9c6cd7e3e
+- id: semantic-release-bot
+  email: semantic-release-bot@martynus\.net
+  query: author-email:semantic-release-bot@martynus.net
+  evidence:
+  - https://github.com/HanseltimeIndustries/pkgtest-setup-action/commit/3789ef26d183435efa7db6a0e2f2463c998644a3
+  - https://github.com/revenuebee/revenuebee.github.io/commit/e44c048aef1ab3201eff05450614a32e6ce4b6bb
+  - https://github.com/jimcullenaus/lemmy-daily-games-bot/commit/445b578f0d38b660aa077b0e78c4ba69a6d56672