athletevalue 0.1.0__tar.gz

athletevalue-0.1.0/.gitignore

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+*.py[cod]
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+.pytest_cache/
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+.coverage
+coverage.xml
+htmlcov/
+site/
+.hypothesis/
+.DS_Store
+# Local-only research notes and private data (KenPom exports etc.)
+*.local.md
+*.local.csv
+private/

athletevalue-0.1.0/.import_linter_cache/.gitignore

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+# Automatically created by Grimp.
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athletevalue-0.1.0/.import_linter_cache/489b52dc1b9aa1f85b757db7f7756cdd659e55c1.data.json

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SeasonModel"],["athletevalue.assumptions.registry",false,10,"from athletevalue.assumptions.registry import AssumptionRegistry"],["athletevalue.market.surplus",false,13,"from athletevalue.market.surplus import assign_quadrants, surplus_draws"],["athletevalue.valuation.result",false,21,"from athletevalue.valuation.result import Driver, PlayerValuation"],["numpy",false,7,"import numpy as np"],["athletevalue.schemas.identity",false,16,"from athletevalue.schemas.identity import PlayerRef"],["athletevalue.schemas.registry",false,17,"from athletevalue.schemas.registry import DealRecord"],["athletevalue.wins.war",false,33,"from athletevalue.wins.war import war_analytic"],["athletevalue.versions",false,32,"from athletevalue.versions import MODEL_VERSION"],["athletevalue.schemas.estimate",false,14,"from athletevalue.schemas.estimate import Estimate"],["polars",false,8,"import polars as pl"],["athletevalue.valuation.report",false,20,"from athletevalue.valuation.report import money"],["athletevalue.schemas.evidence",false,15,"from athletevalue.schemas.evidence import EvidenceStatus"],["athletevalue.valuation.economy",false,19,"from athletevalue.valuation.economy import EconomicsModel"],["athletevalue.market.registry",false,12,"from athletevalue.market.registry import observed_annual_pay"],["datetime",false,5,"from datetime import date"]],"athletevalue.valuation.report":[["athletevalue.schemas.evidence",false,6,"from athletevalue.schemas.evidence import EvidenceStatus"],["athletevalue.valuation.result",false,7,"from athletevalue.valuation.result import PlayerValuation"],["__future__",false,3,"from __future__ import annotations"],["athletevalue.schemas.estimate",false,5,"from athletevalue.schemas.estimate import Estimate"]],"athletevalue.valuation.result":[["athletevalue.schemas.identity",false,10,"from athletevalue.schemas.identity import PlayerRef"],["athletevalue.schemas.estimate",false,9,"from athletevalue.schemas.estimate import 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athletevalue-0.1.0/.import_linter_cache/CACHEDIR.TAG

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+Signature: 8a477f597d28d172789f06886806bc55
+# This file is a cache directory tag automatically created by Grimp.
+# For information about cache directory tags see https://bford.info/cachedir/

athletevalue-0.1.0/.import_linter_cache/athletevalue.meta.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"athletevalue.schemas.source": 1789594410.9776866, "athletevalue.identity": 1789594410.9708703, "athletevalue.economics.revenue": 1789596658.1926856, "athletevalue.assumptions.audit": 1789594465.684653, "athletevalue.assumptions.data": 1789594410.9707494, "athletevalue.sources": 1789594410.9707882, "athletevalue.economics.program_value": 1789596271.0706863, "athletevalue.market.registry": 1789596358.896882, "athletevalue.data.identity": 1789596302.3783886, "athletevalue.valuation.economy": 1789596302.380616, "athletevalue.schemas.registry": 1789594410.9841375, "athletevalue.sports.mbb.loaders": 1789594957.7058473, "athletevalue.assumptions.models": 1789595281.2135575, "athletevalue.uncertainty.draws": 1789594705.992007, "athletevalue.cli.main": 1789596658.1926923, "athletevalue.sources.user_csv": 1789594591.0002942, "athletevalue.identity.resolve": 1789596450.6353033, "athletevalue.valuation.validate": 1789595241.847176, "athletevalue.valuation.player": 1789596671.1591754, "athletevalue.uncertainty": 1789594410.9708285, "athletevalue.wins": 1789594410.970998, "athletevalue.sources.eada": 1789597023.679714, "athletevalue.impact.rapm": 1789595241.8462043, "athletevalue.frames.columns": 1789596155.473347, "athletevalue.sports": 1789594410.9711888, "athletevalue.sports.mbb": 1789594410.9712417, "athletevalue.market": 1789594410.9710865, "athletevalue.cli": 1789594410.9712825, "athletevalue.economics.panel": 1789596658.1921709, "athletevalue.schemas.evidence": 1789594410.9756007, "athletevalue.assumptions.registry": 1789594465.6819286, "athletevalue.frames.games": 1789596658.1924038, "athletevalue.frames.team_possessions": 1789594885.5227299, "athletevalue.market.budget": 1789596658.1918895, "athletevalue.impact.ridge": 1789595207.695548, "athletevalue.valuation.season": 1789596182.500107, "athletevalue.impact.reconstruct": 1789595241.8467422, "athletevalue.schemas.identity": 1789594410.982082, "athletevalue.assumptions": 1789594410.9707007, "athletevalue.wins.pythag": 1789595281.2138126, "athletevalue.valuation.report": 1789596671.159418, "athletevalue.data.deal_registry": 1789596302.3784425, "athletevalue.schemas": 1789594410.9706526, "athletevalue.impact": 1789594410.9709537, "athletevalue.valuation": 1789594410.9711432, "athletevalue": 1789594410.9607627, "athletevalue.identity.crosswalk": 1789596302.3757513, "athletevalue.schemas.estimate": 1789594410.979867, "athletevalue.data": 1789596302.3783298, "athletevalue.sources.sportsdataverse": 1789595281.213981, "athletevalue.sources.cache": 1789595266.6664531, "athletevalue.schemas.hashing": 1789594410.9733174, "athletevalue.api": 1789596532.3138816, "athletevalue.frames.possessions": 1789596155.4727912, "athletevalue.sports.mbb.economics_loaders": 1789596658.1918957, "athletevalue.valuation.team": 1789596658.1930695, "athletevalue.valuation.result": 1789596450.5988288, "athletevalue.economics": 1789594410.9710429, "athletevalue.economics.tournament": 1789596658.1919556, "athletevalue.market.allocation": 1789596658.192, "athletevalue.sources.torvik": 1789595266.667139, "athletevalue.versions": 1789594410.9653552, "athletevalue.market.surplus": 1789596358.9038951, "athletevalue.impact.design": 1789595241.8466735, "athletevalue.impact.cv": 1789595241.8442981, "athletevalue.wins.war": 1789595241.847645, "athletevalue.identity.names": 1789594957.697989, "athletevalue.frames": 1789594410.970909, "athletevalue.constants": 1789594410.9673774}

athletevalue-0.1.0/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+# Changelog
+
+## 0.1.0 (2026-09-16)
+
+First release, men's basketball.
+
+- RAPM from SportsDataverse possession data with exact posterior standard errors,
+  pooled low-minute players, non-D1 opponents, neutral sites and grouped
+  cross-validation.
+- Validation gates against the SportsDataverse league-wide RAPM and Bart Torvik
+  team ratings.
+- Wins above replacement from a per-game win model over each team's schedule.
+- Program value from a school fixed-effects model of EADA revenue, a tournament-bid
+  model and conference tournament units.
+- Roster market value for 2025-26 from reported roster budgets allocated by role
+  and impact.
+- Assumption registry with citations and evidence status on every estimate.
+- CLI: `fetch`, `fit`, `validate`, `value`, `team`, `assumptions`, `cache-path`.

athletevalue-0.1.0/CITATION.cff

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+cff-version: 1.2.0
+message: "If you use athletevalue, please cite it as below."
+title: "athletevalue: open models of college athlete impact, program value and market price"
+type: software
+authors:
+  - family-names: Hodge
+    given-names: John
+license: MIT
+repository-code: "https://github.com/jman4162/athletevalue"
+version: 0.1.0
+date-released: 2026-09-16
+keywords:
+  - college basketball
+  - adjusted plus-minus
+  - sports economics
+  - name image likeness

athletevalue-0.1.0/CLAUDE.md

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+# athletevalue: notes for coding agents
+
+- Layout: `src/athletevalue/{schemas,assumptions,sources,uncertainty,identity,frames,impact,wins,economics,market,valuation,sports,api.py,cli}`.
+  Layer order and forbidden imports are in `pyproject.toml` under `[tool.importlinter]`.
+- Checks: `uv run ruff check . && uv run ruff format --check . && uv run mypy src/ && uv run lint-imports && uv run pytest`.
+  Live-data tests: `uv run pytest -m network`.
+- If `import athletevalue` fails under `uv run`, the editable `.pth` file has the macOS
+  `hidden` flag: `chflags nohidden .venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/*.pth`, or prefix
+  commands with `PYTHONPATH=src` and use `uv run --no-sync`.
+- Modelling constants go in `assumptions/data/*.toml`, never inline; governance tests fail on
+  bare numbers in `impact`, `wins`, `economics`, `market`, `valuation` (except `valuation/report.py`).
+- Season key is the ending year. Market budgets exist only for 2026.
+- Do not fit shipped values on KenPom, Knight-Newhouse or raw CollegeBasketballData; Torvik is validation only.
+- Private research notes live in `*.local.md` files, which git ignores.

athletevalue-0.1.0/CONTRIBUTING.md

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+# Contributing
+
+## Setup
+
+```bash
+git clone https://github.com/jman4162/athletevalue
+cd athletevalue
+uv sync --group dev
+```
+
+Checks CI runs on every push:
+
+```bash
+uv run ruff check . && uv run ruff format --check .
+uv run mypy src/
+uv run lint-imports
+uv run pytest --cov
+```
+
+`uv run pytest -m network` fits full seasons from live data. It takes a few minutes
+after the first download.
+
+macOS note: if `import athletevalue` fails inside the virtual environment, check
+whether the `.pth` files in `.venv/lib/python3.*/site-packages` carry the `hidden`
+flag (`ls -lO`). Some sync tools set it, and Python 3.12.13 and later skip hidden
+`.pth` files. `chflags nohidden .venv/lib/python3.*/site-packages/*.pth` fixes it.
+The test configuration adds `src` to the path, so pytest is unaffected.
+
+## Rules the build enforces
+
+1. **No bare constants in modelling code.** A number in `impact`, `wins`,
+   `economics`, `market` or `valuation` must come from the assumption registry
+   (`src/athletevalue/assumptions/data/*.toml`) with a citation, a rationale or a
+   `user_input` basis. `tests/governance` fails otherwise.
+2. **Every registry entry is used.** An entry no code reads is removed.
+3. **Layers.** Modelling packages do no I/O, and no fitting code imports the
+   reader for user-supplied restricted data. `lint-imports` checks both.
+4. **Evidence status propagates.** A new estimate takes the weakest status of its
+   inputs.
+
+## Adding a deal to the registry
+
+See `src/athletevalue/data/deal_registry/README.md`. In short: a public URL that
+states the figure for that athlete, no rating-site valuations, no data from sources
+that forbid redistribution, and a signed-off commit (`git commit -s`) licensing the
+row under CC BY 4.0.
+
+## Writing
+
+Docs and docstrings state what a thing does and what was measured. Avoid adjectives
+that are not measurements.

athletevalue-0.1.0/DISCLAIMER.md

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+# Disclaimer
+
+`athletevalue` produces statistical estimates for research and education.
+
+- Estimates are not reports of what any athlete is paid. Market values in v0.1
+  allocate average roster budgets published by a third party; they are scenarios.
+- Program values count only the revenue schools attribute to men's basketball in
+  federal EADA filings and understate value to a university.
+- Intervals reflect the uncertainty the models can measure, not every way they can
+  be wrong.
+- Player names come from public NCAA box scores. The project is not affiliated with
+  or endorsed by the NCAA, any conference, school, collective or data provider.
+- Nothing here is financial, legal or employment advice.

athletevalue-0.1.0/LICENSE

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2026 John Hodge
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.

athletevalue-0.1.0/LICENSE-DATA

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+Data license
+============
+
+The curated data files under src/athletevalue/data/ (the deal registry, team
+crosswalks and training-source manifests) are licensed under the Creative
+Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0):
+https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
+
+Attribute as: "athletevalue contributors, https://github.com/jman4162/athletevalue".
+
+What this license does not cover
+--------------------------------
+
+athletevalue downloads third-party data at runtime into a local cache. That
+data is not part of this repository and keeps its own terms:
+
+- SportsDataverse release assets (github.com/sportsdataverse/sportsdataverse-data):
+  published from an MIT-licensed repository.
+- EADA (ope.ed.gov/athletics): U.S. federal government work.
+- Bart Torvik team results (barttorvik.com): used only to validate outputs;
+  never bundled and never used to fit shipped coefficients.
+
+Optional adapters read files that a user supplies from their own authorized
+accounts (for example KenPom or the Knight-Newhouse College Athletics
+Database). Those files, and anything fitted from them, are not distributed by
+this project. A governance test fails the build if fitting code imports those
+adapters.

athletevalue-0.1.0/METHODOLOGY.md

@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
+# Methodology
+
+This document describes model `mbb-v0.1.0`. Every constant named here is an entry
+in the assumption registry (`athletevalue assumptions` lists them with their basis,
+citation or rationale). Figures quoted are from the 2025 and 2026 season fits.
+
+## 1. Data
+
+**Possessions.** SportsDataverse publishes one row per possession for every D1
+men's game from 2011, parsed from stats.ncaa.org play-by-play. Each row names the
+offense team, the points scored, a garbage-time flag and the stats.ncaa.org ids of
+all ten players on the floor. For 2026 the file has 878,168 possessions; 840,040
+remain after dropping garbage time and rows where a D1 team's lineup is incomplete.
+
+**Non-D1 opponents.** Their lineups carry no player ids. Each non-D1 lineup enters
+the model as one shared column, so those games still inform D1 players' ratings.
+
+**Venues.** ESPN schedules mark neutral sites and NCAA tournament games
+(`tournament_id` 22). From 2023 the possession file carries ESPN game ids. For
+earlier seasons neutral-site and postseason ESPN games are matched to NCAA games
+within one day using token similarity of both team names. Matching recovers 93-99%
+of neutral-site games and 62-67 of 67 tournament games per season.
+
+**Program finances.** EADA sport-level files give each institution's reported men's
+basketball revenue (`REV_MEN`) and expense (`EXP_MEN`) by academic year. A curated
+crosswalk maps 369 of 373 stats.ncaa.org team names to IPEDS unit ids. The service
+academies are not in EADA, and New Haven joined D1 after the latest file.
+
+## 2. Player impact (RAPM)
+
+Possessions are grouped into rows that share a game, an offense team, both
+lineups and a venue. For row *r* with offense lineup *O* and defense lineup *D*:
+
+    y_r = 100 · pts_r / poss_r
+        = μ + h·v_r + Σ_{i∈O} off_i − Σ_{j∈D} def_j + ε_r,   Var(ε_r) = σ² / poss_r
+
+where *v_r* is +1 when the offense is at home, −1 away and 0 neutral. A positive
+`def_j` means player *j* lowers opponent scoring, so a player's net rating is
+`off + def`. Players with fewer than 100 average possessions share one pooled
+offense and one pooled defense column.
+
+Coefficients minimize
+
+    Σ_r poss_r (y_r − x_r β)² + λ Σ_k p_k (β_k − b0_k)²
+
+with *p_k* = 1 for player columns and 0 for the intercept, home court, pooled and
+non-D1 columns. `b0` is a prior mean; v0.1 uses zero. Weighting rows by possession
+count makes `X'WX` identical to the possession-level Gram matrix, so λ means the
+same thing as in a possession-level fit.
+
+**Penalty.** λ = 1000, the value in the SportsDataverse model card. Cross-validation
+that holds out whole games picks the same value for 2026:
+
+| λ | 100 | 300 | 1000 | 3000 | 10000 |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| held-out weighted MSE | 5,246 | 5,207 | 5,187 | 5,192 | 5,210 |
+
+**Uncertainty.** Posterior variances are exact: `σ̂² · diag(A⁻¹)` with
+`A = X'WX + λP`, from the Cholesky factor. The residual variance is
+`σ̂² = Σ poss_r r_r² / (n_rows − df)` with `df = n_cols − λ Σ_penalized (A⁻¹)_kk`.
+Net-rating SEs include the offense-defense covariance. The fit refuses to report a
+result if `df` is not below the column count, which catches a penalty that was
+silently dropped. A starter's net-rating SE is about 4 points per 100: with
+λ = 1000 the prior SD is `sqrt(13,300 / 1000) ≈ 3.6` per component, and one
+season of college possessions does not move far from it.
+
+**Team ratings.** A team's adjusted offense is the possession-weighted average of
+the offensive coefficients it put on the floor; defense likewise. Their sum is the
+team's adjusted net rating relative to an average D1 lineup.
+
+**Checks.** See the validation table in the README. Two findings from them:
+
+- The pooled low-minute players rate −12.1 (2026) and −9.6 (2025) per 100, far
+  below the −2.0 replacement convention borrowed from NBA Box Plus/Minus.
+- The home-court coefficient is 2.9-3.2 per side, a net home edge of about 6 points
+  per 100 possessions, or 4 points in a 70-possession game.
+
+## 3. Wins above replacement
+
+A player's share of team possessions is `s = (off_poss + def_poss) / team lineup
+possessions`. Replacing him with a replacement-level player lowers the team's net
+rating by `Δ = (net − R) · s` with `R = −2.0`.
+
+Win probability in each game is
+
+    P(win) = Φ( (net_team − net_opp + 2h·v) · poss_game / 100 / σ_margin )
+
+`σ_margin` is fitted each season as the root-mean-square gap between actual and
+expected margins: 11.7 points in 2026 and 12.2 in 2025. WAR is the sum over the
+team's games of `P(win | net_team) − P(win | net_team − Δ)`, computed for 4,000
+draws of the player's net rating from its posterior. The headline figure is the
+median of those draws.
+
+`war_linear` is the derivative of the same sum times Δ. It agrees with the
+simulation for small impacts and understates it for a star on a dominant team,
+where removing the player moves close games into toss-up territory.
+
+A Pythagorean exponent fitted on raw season efficiencies is 7.6 (2026) and 7.8
+(2025). Published exponents of 10.25-11.5 use schedule-adjusted efficiencies. The
+package reports the fitted exponent as a check and does not use it for WAR.
+
+## 4. Program value
+
+**Revenue response.** On school-seasons 2012-2025, excluding 2020 (tournament
+cancelled) and 2021 (attendance limits):
+
+    log R_st = a_s + g_t + b0·W_st + b1·W_s,t−1 + d0·Bid_st + d1·Bid_s,t−1 + e_st
+
+School effects absorb brand, market and conference; season effects absorb league
+growth. Only rows where reported revenue differs from expense enter the fit: 61% of
+D1 rows report the two as equal, which means the school allocates revenue to the
+sport rather than measuring it. The fit uses 1,370 school-seasons from 167 schools
+with at least four usable seasons. A bootstrap over schools gives 400 replicates.
+
+| Effect (current + next season) | Median | 80% interval |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| One win, log revenue | 0.0063 | 0.0037 to 0.0089 |
+| NCAA bid, log revenue | 0.053 | 0.015 to 0.091 |
+
+A win is worth `(b0 + b1) · R̄` where `R̄` is the school's mean reported revenue over
+its latest three seasons. For Michigan (`R̄` = $21.0M) that is about $130k a win.
+
+**Tournament bids.** A logistic model of bid on win percentage, power-conference
+membership and their interaction, fitted on 2011-2026 except 2020 and 2021. A player's WAR changes his
+team's win percentage by `WAR / games`, which changes the bid probability.
+
+**Tournament units.** A conference earns one unit per game a member plays, except
+the championship game; the data give 1.94 units per bid. A unit is worth about
+$2M paid over six years (undiscounted). The school's share defaults to an equal
+split among conference members, a user assumption, which makes this component and
+total program value a scenario.
+
+**What is missing.** Conference media distributions, donations and licensing that
+EADA does not attribute to men's basketball, and effects beyond one season. Program
+value is a lower bound on value to the university.
+
+## 5. Roster market value
+
+No public dataset records what individual college basketball players are paid, so
+v0.1 allocates a reported budget rather than predicting pay.
+
+**Budget.** Opendorse's 2025-26 study, as reported in March 2026, gives average
+men's basketball roster spending of $7-10M in the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten
+and SEC; $2-5M for a "B tier"; and $1-2M for a "C tier". The study does not list
+B-tier members; the package assigns the AAC, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, WCC and
+MVC as a user assumption. Budgets are lognormal with the cited range as the central
+80%. For context, the House settlement caps school revenue sharing at about $20.5M
+across all sports in 2025-26; the budgets above also include collective money.
+
+**Roles.** Players are ranked by possessions. The top five are starters, the next
+three are rotation, the rest are bench, and anyone on the floor for under 5% of
+possessions is unpaid. The same study reports rotation players earn 15-25% less than
+starters and bench players 30-55% less; each draw samples a ratio from those ranges.
+
+**Impact within a role.** Pay within a role is proportional to
+`max(net − R, 0.5)^κ` with κ = 1, normalized to the role mean so the role ratios
+still hold. Every draw samples the budget, ratios and player ratings.
+
+The allocation sums to the budget in every draw. It says what a team spending an
+average budget in its tier would pay if it paid by role and on-court impact. It
+does not see recruiting rank, draft stock, transfer leverage or social following,
+which the study and other research say drive real contracts. That is why it is
+labelled a scenario and why the deal registry exists.
+
+## 6. Surplus and quadrant
+
+Surplus is program value minus price, draw by draw. When the deal registry holds a
+disclosed figure for the player-season it replaces the allocation as the price.
+
+The value-vs-price quadrant compares a player's median program value and price with
+the medians of his paid teammates. It is a within-team comparison, not a league
+ranking.
+
+## 7. Reproducing
+
+```bash
+uv sync --group dev
+uv run pytest                 # offline suite, synthetic seasons
+uv run pytest -m network      # full 2025 and 2026 fits against live data
+athletevalue validate --season 2026
+athletevalue fit --season 2026 --cv
+```
+
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