PolicyEngine-UK 2.65.0__tar.gz → 2.65.2__tar.gz

{policyengine_uk-2.65.0 → policyengine_uk-2.65.2}/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -5,6 +5,18 @@ All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/), 
 and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).
 
+## [2.65.2] - 2025-12-05 16:29:26
+
+### Fixed
+
+- Fix fuel duty rates to use OBR November 2025 RPI forecasts.
+
+## [2.65.1] - 2025-12-04 14:45:58
+
+### Changed
+
+- Bump policyengine-core to 3.23.0 (adds strict enum validation).
+
 ## [2.65.0] - 2025-12-03 16:17:09
 
 ### Fixed
@@ -2424,6 +2436,8 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 
 
 
+[2.65.2]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.65.1...2.65.2
+[2.65.1]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.65.0...2.65.1
 [2.65.0]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.64.1...2.65.0
 [2.64.1]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.64.0...2.64.1
 [2.64.0]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/openfisca-uk/compare/2.63.0...2.64.0

{policyengine_uk-2.65.0 → policyengine_uk-2.65.2}/PKG-INFO

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.4
 Name: policyengine-uk
-Version: 2.65.0
+Version: 2.65.2
 Summary: PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK.
 Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
 Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.13
 Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Information Analysis
 Requires-Python: <3.14,>=3.13
 Requires-Dist: microdf-python>=1.0.2
-Requires-Dist: policyengine-core>=3.19.3
+Requires-Dist: policyengine-core>=3.23.0
 Requires-Dist: pydantic>=2.11.7
 Requires-Dist: tables>=3.10.2
 Provides-Extra: dev

{policyengine_uk-2.65.0 → policyengine_uk-2.65.2}/policyengine_uk/__init__.py

@@ -1,6 +1,10 @@
 # -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
 
 import os
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from policyengine_core.taxbenefitsystems import TaxBenefitSystem
+
 from policyengine_uk import entities
 from policyengine_uk.system import (
     CountryTaxBenefitSystem,
@@ -10,9 +14,6 @@ from policyengine_uk.system import (
     parameters,
     variables,
 )
-from pathlib import Path
-import os
 from .model_api import *
-from policyengine_core.taxbenefitsystems import TaxBenefitSystem
 
 REPO = Path(__file__).parent

policyengine_uk-2.65.2/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py

@@ -0,0 +1,464 @@
+"""
+Calculates calendar year average fuel duty rates and updates petrol_and_diesel.yaml.
+
+Reads base rates from petrol_and_diesel.yaml and RPI forecasts from yoy_growth.yaml,
+then computes weighted averages accounting for the staggered 5p cut reversal and
+RPI uprating from April 2027.
+
+Usage:
+    python calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py          # Print calculations only
+    python calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py --update # Update the YAML file
+"""
+
+import argparse
+import re
+from datetime import date
+from calendar import isleap
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import yaml
+
+
+# Years to calculate rates for
+CALCULATION_YEARS = range(2026, 2031)
+
+
+def get_repo_root() -> Path:
+    """Find the repository root by looking for policyengine_uk directory."""
+    current = Path(__file__).resolve()
+    while current != current.parent:
+        if (current / "policyengine_uk").is_dir():
+            return current
+        current = current.parent
+    raise RuntimeError("Could not find repository root")
+
+
+def get_fuel_duty_yaml_path() -> Path:
+    """Get the path to the fuel duty YAML file."""
+    repo_root = get_repo_root()
+    return (
+        repo_root
+        / "policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml"
+    )
+
+
+def load_fuel_duty_rates() -> dict:
+    """Load fuel duty rates from the YAML parameter file."""
+    yaml_path = get_fuel_duty_yaml_path()
+    with open(yaml_path) as f:
+        return yaml.safe_load(f)
+
+
+def load_rpi_forecasts() -> dict:
+    """Load RPI year-on-year growth forecasts from economic assumptions."""
+    repo_root = get_repo_root()
+    yaml_path = (
+        repo_root
+        / "policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml"
+    )
+    with open(yaml_path) as f:
+        data = yaml.safe_load(f)
+
+    # Extract RPI values and convert to percentage format
+    rpi_values = data["obr"]["rpi"]["values"]
+    rpi_forecasts = {}
+    for date_key, value in rpi_values.items():
+        # Handle both string and datetime.date keys from YAML
+        if hasattr(date_key, "year"):
+            year = date_key.year
+        else:
+            year = int(str(date_key).split("-")[0])
+        # Convert from decimal (0.0371) to percentage (3.71)
+        rpi_forecasts[year] = value * 100
+    return rpi_forecasts
+
+
+def get_value_for_date(values: dict, target_date: str) -> float:
+    """
+    Get the value for a specific date from a YAML values dict.
+    Handles both string and datetime.date keys.
+    """
+    for date_key, value in values.items():
+        # Normalize date key to string for comparison
+        if hasattr(date_key, "strftime"):
+            key_str = date_key.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+        else:
+            key_str = str(date_key)
+
+        if key_str == target_date:
+            # Value might be a dict with 'value' key or a direct number
+            if isinstance(value, dict):
+                return value["value"]
+            return value
+    return None
+
+
+def get_base_rate_with_cut(fuel_duty_data: dict) -> float:
+    """
+    Get the base fuel duty rate with the 5p cut still in place.
+    This is the rate at 2022-03-23 (when the 5p cut was introduced).
+    Returns rate in pence.
+    """
+    values = fuel_duty_data["values"]
+    # The 5p cut rate is at 2022-03-23
+    rate = get_value_for_date(values, "2022-03-23")
+    if rate is None:
+        raise ValueError("Could not find 2022-03-23 fuel duty rate")
+    # Convert from GBP to pence
+    return rate * 100
+
+
+def get_pre_cut_rate(fuel_duty_data: dict) -> float:
+    """
+    Get the fuel duty rate before the 5p cut (the rate to restore to).
+    This is the rate at 2021-01-01 (57.95p).
+    Returns rate in pence.
+    """
+    values = fuel_duty_data["values"]
+    rate = get_value_for_date(values, "2021-01-01")
+    if rate is None:
+        raise ValueError("Could not find 2021-01-01 fuel duty rate")
+    return rate * 100
+
+
+# Staggered reversal schedule (date, cumulative increase in pence)
+REVERSAL_SCHEDULE = [
+    (date(2026, 9, 1), 1.0),  # +1p
+    (date(2026, 12, 1), 3.0),  # +2p more (total +3p)
+    (date(2027, 3, 1), 5.0),  # +2p more (total +5p, full reversal)
+]
+
+
+def get_rate_on_date(
+    d: date,
+    base_rate_with_cut: float,
+    pre_cut_rate: float,
+    rpi_forecasts: dict,
+) -> float:
+    """Get the fuel duty rate (in pence) on a specific date."""
+    # Start with the base rate (with 5p cut still in place)
+    rate = base_rate_with_cut
+
+    # Apply staggered reversal
+    for reversal_date, increase in REVERSAL_SCHEDULE:
+        if d >= reversal_date:
+            rate = base_rate_with_cut + increase
+
+    # Apply RPI uprating from April 2027
+    if d >= date(2027, 4, 1):
+        # Rate after full reversal (pre-cut rate)
+        rate = pre_cut_rate
+
+        # Apply cumulative RPI uprating
+        for year in sorted(rpi_forecasts.keys()):
+            if year < 2026:
+                continue  # Only apply forecasts from 2026 onwards
+            uprating_date = date(year + 1, 4, 1)
+            if d >= uprating_date:
+                rpi = rpi_forecasts[year]
+                rate = rate * (1 + rpi / 100)
+
+    return round(rate, 2)
+
+
+def days_in_year(year: int) -> int:
+    """Return number of days in a year."""
+    return 366 if isleap(year) else 365
+
+
+def calculate_annual_average(
+    year: int,
+    base_rate_with_cut: float,
+    pre_cut_rate: float,
+    rpi_forecasts: dict,
+) -> float:
+    """Calculate the weighted average fuel duty rate for a calendar year."""
+    total_days = days_in_year(year)
+
+    # Calculate daily rates and sum them
+    total_rate = 0.0
+    for month in range(1, 13):
+        for day in range(1, 32):
+            try:
+                d = date(year, month, day)
+                total_rate += get_rate_on_date(
+                    d, base_rate_with_cut, pre_cut_rate, rpi_forecasts
+                )
+            except ValueError:
+                # Invalid date (e.g., Feb 30)
+                continue
+
+    average = total_rate / total_days
+    return round(average, 2)
+
+
+def format_as_pounds(pence: float) -> str:
+    """Convert pence to pounds string format for YAML."""
+    return f"{pence / 100:.4f}"
+
+
+def generate_year_breakdown(
+    year: int,
+    base_rate_with_cut: float,
+    pre_cut_rate: float,
+    rpi_forecasts: dict,
+) -> list:
+    """Generate period breakdown for a year, returns list of (start, end, rate, days)."""
+    current_rate = None
+    period_start = None
+    periods = []
+
+    for month in range(1, 13):
+        for day in range(1, 32):
+            try:
+                d = date(year, month, day)
+                rate = get_rate_on_date(
+                    d, base_rate_with_cut, pre_cut_rate, rpi_forecasts
+                )
+
+                if rate != current_rate:
+                    if current_rate is not None:
+                        days = (prev_date - period_start).days + 1
+                        periods.append(
+                            (period_start, prev_date, current_rate, days)
+                        )
+                    current_rate = rate
+                    period_start = d
+                prev_date = d
+            except ValueError:
+                continue
+
+    # Add final period
+    if current_rate is not None:
+        days = (prev_date - period_start).days + 1
+        periods.append((period_start, prev_date, current_rate, days))
+
+    return periods
+
+
+def generate_note_for_year(
+    year: int,
+    avg_pence: float,
+    base_rate_with_cut: float,
+    pre_cut_rate: float,
+    rpi_forecasts: dict,
+) -> str:
+    """Generate the note text for a year's YAML entry."""
+    periods = generate_year_breakdown(
+        year, base_rate_with_cut, pre_cut_rate, rpi_forecasts
+    )
+    total_days = days_in_year(year)
+    year_type = "leap year" if isleap(year) else ""
+
+    lines = []
+    if year_type:
+        lines.append(f"Calendar year {year} average ({year_type}):")
+    else:
+        lines.append(f"Calendar year {year} average:")
+
+    for start, end, rate, days in periods:
+        lines.append(
+            f"- {start.strftime('%b %d')} - {end.strftime('%b %d')} "
+            f"({days} days): {rate:.2f}p"
+        )
+
+    # Add formula
+    formula_parts = [f"{rate:.2f}p * {days}" for _, _, rate, days in periods]
+    lines.append(
+        f"({' + '.join(formula_parts)}) / {total_days} = {avg_pence:.2f}p"
+    )
+    lines.append("Generated by calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py")
+
+    return "\n".join(lines)
+
+
+def update_yaml_file(
+    calculated_rates: dict,
+    rpi_forecasts: dict,
+    base_rate_with_cut: float,
+    pre_cut_rate: float,
+) -> None:
+    """Update the petrol_and_diesel.yaml file with calculated rates."""
+    yaml_path = get_fuel_duty_yaml_path()
+
+    # Read the current file content
+    with open(yaml_path, "r") as f:
+        content = f.read()
+
+    # For each year, update or add the entry
+    for year, avg_pence in calculated_rates.items():
+        date_str = f"{year}-01-01"
+        value_pounds = avg_pence / 100
+
+        # Generate the note
+        note = generate_note_for_year(
+            year, avg_pence, base_rate_with_cut, pre_cut_rate, rpi_forecasts
+        )
+        # Indent note lines for YAML
+        note_yaml = note.replace("\n", "\n        ")
+
+        # Pattern to match existing entry for this year
+        # Matches from the date line until the next date or metadata section
+        pattern = (
+            rf"(  {date_str}:.*?)(?=\n  \d{{4}}-\d{{2}}-\d{{2}}:|\nmetadata:)"
+        )
+
+        # New entry text
+        new_entry = f"""  {date_str}:
+    value: {value_pounds:.4f}
+    metadata:
+      reference:
+        - title: OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook November 2025
+          href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
+      note: |
+        {note_yaml}"""
+
+        # Try to replace existing entry
+        if re.search(pattern, content, re.DOTALL):
+            content = re.sub(pattern, new_entry, content, flags=re.DOTALL)
+        else:
+            # Entry doesn't exist, need to add it before metadata section
+            # Find the metadata section and insert before it
+            metadata_match = re.search(r"\nmetadata:", content)
+            if metadata_match:
+                insert_pos = metadata_match.start()
+                content = (
+                    content[:insert_pos]
+                    + "\n"
+                    + new_entry
+                    + content[insert_pos:]
+                )
+
+    # Write the updated content back
+    with open(yaml_path, "w") as f:
+        f.write(content)
+
+    print(f"Updated {yaml_path}")
+
+
+def print_calculations(
+    base_rate_with_cut: float,
+    pre_cut_rate: float,
+    rpi_forecasts: dict,
+    calculated_rates: dict,
+) -> None:
+    """Print calculation details to stdout."""
+    print("Loading data from repository files...")
+    print(f"  Base rate with 5p cut (2022-03-23): {base_rate_with_cut:.2f}p")
+    print(f"  Pre-cut rate (2021-01-01): {pre_cut_rate:.2f}p")
+    print()
+
+    print(
+        "RPI forecasts from yoy_growth.yaml (applied in April of next year):"
+    )
+    for year in CALCULATION_YEARS:
+        rpi = rpi_forecasts.get(year, 0)
+        print(f"  {year}: {rpi:.2f}%")
+    print()
+
+    print("=" * 60)
+    print("Fuel Duty Rate Calculations")
+    print("=" * 60)
+    print()
+
+    # Show the rate schedule
+    print("Rate Schedule (actual policy dates):")
+    print("-" * 40)
+    key_dates = [
+        date(2026, 1, 1),
+        date(2026, 9, 1),
+        date(2026, 12, 1),
+        date(2027, 3, 1),
+        date(2027, 4, 1),
+        date(2028, 4, 1),
+        date(2029, 4, 1),
+        date(2030, 4, 1),
+    ]
+    for d in key_dates:
+        rate = get_rate_on_date(
+            d, base_rate_with_cut, pre_cut_rate, rpi_forecasts
+        )
+        print(f"  {d}: {rate:.2f}p ({format_as_pounds(rate)} GBP)")
+
+    print()
+    print("Calendar Year Averages (for YAML parameter file):")
+    print("-" * 40)
+
+    for year in CALCULATION_YEARS:
+        avg = calculated_rates[year]
+        print(f"  {year}-01-01:")
+        print(f"    value: {format_as_pounds(avg)}")
+        print(f"    # Average rate: {avg:.2f}p")
+        print()
+
+    # Show detailed breakdown for each year
+    print()
+    print("Detailed Breakdown:")
+    print("=" * 60)
+
+    for year in CALCULATION_YEARS:
+        year_type = "leap year" if isleap(year) else "regular year"
+        print(f"\n{year} ({year_type}):")
+        print("-" * 40)
+
+        periods = generate_year_breakdown(
+            year, base_rate_with_cut, pre_cut_rate, rpi_forecasts
+        )
+        total_days = days_in_year(year)
+        weighted_sum = 0.0
+
+        for start, end, rate, days in periods:
+            weighted_sum += rate * days
+            print(
+                f"  {start.strftime('%b %d')} - {end.strftime('%b %d')}: "
+                f"{days:3d} days @ {rate:.2f}p"
+            )
+
+        avg = weighted_sum / total_days
+        print(f"  Average: {avg:.2f}p ({format_as_pounds(avg)} GBP)")
+
+
+def main():
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
+        description="Calculate fuel duty rates based on Autumn Budget 2025 policy."
+    )
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--update",
+        action="store_true",
+        help="Update the petrol_and_diesel.yaml file with calculated rates",
+    )
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    # Load data from repository files
+    fuel_duty_data = load_fuel_duty_rates()
+    rpi_forecasts = load_rpi_forecasts()
+
+    base_rate_with_cut = get_base_rate_with_cut(fuel_duty_data)
+    pre_cut_rate = get_pre_cut_rate(fuel_duty_data)
+
+    # Calculate rates for each year
+    calculated_rates = {}
+    for year in CALCULATION_YEARS:
+        avg = calculate_annual_average(
+            year, base_rate_with_cut, pre_cut_rate, rpi_forecasts
+        )
+        calculated_rates[year] = avg
+
+    # Print calculations
+    print_calculations(
+        base_rate_with_cut, pre_cut_rate, rpi_forecasts, calculated_rates
+    )
+
+    # Update YAML file if requested
+    if args.update:
+        print()
+        print("=" * 60)
+        print("Updating YAML file...")
+        print("=" * 60)
+        update_yaml_file(
+            calculated_rates, rpi_forecasts, base_rate_with_cut, pre_cut_rate
+        )
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

{policyengine_uk-2.65.0 → policyengine_uk-2.65.2}/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml

@@ -21,16 +21,22 @@ values:
         - title: Costing Document - Spring Budget 2023 (page 25)
           href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1142824/Costing_Document_-_Spring_Budget_2023.pdf#page=25
   # November 2025 Autumn Budget: staggered 5p cut reversal (+1p Sep, +2p Dec, +2p Mar 2027)
-  # then RPI uprating from Apr 2027: 59.80p (4.1%), 61.54p (3.2%), 63.34p (2.9%)
+  # then RPI uprating from Apr 2027 using OBR November 2025 RPI forecasts.
   #
   # Source values (actual policy implementation dates):
   # - Mar 22, 2026: 52.95p (continuation of 5p cut)
   # - Sep 1, 2026: 53.95p (+1p increase)
   # - Dec 1, 2026: 55.95p (+2p increase)
-  # - Mar 1, 2027: 57.95p (+2p increase)
-  # - Apr 1, 2027: 59.80p (RPI uprating: 4.1%)
-  # - Apr 1, 2028: 61.54p (RPI uprating: 3.2%)
-  # - Apr 1, 2029: 63.34p (RPI uprating: 2.9%)
+  # - Mar 1, 2027: 57.95p (+2p increase, full rate restored)
+  # - Apr 1, 2027: 60.10p (RPI uprating: 3.71% from OBR Nov 2025 Table 1.7)
+  # - Apr 1, 2028: 61.98p (RPI uprating: 3.13% from OBR Nov 2025 Table 1.7)
+  # - Apr 1, 2029: 63.76p (RPI uprating: 2.87% from OBR Nov 2025 Table 1.7)
+  #
+  # RPI forecasts from OBR EFO November 2025 detailed forecast tables (Table 1.7):
+  # https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
+  # - 2026 RPI: 3.71% (applied Apr 2027)
+  # - 2027 RPI: 3.13% (applied Apr 2028)
+  # - 2028 RPI: 2.87% (applied Apr 2029)
   #
   # For annual calculations, we use the average rate over each calendar year
   # to avoid issues with monthly rate selection in reform calculations.
@@ -42,38 +48,60 @@ values:
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
       note: |
         Calendar year 2026 average:
-        (0.5295 * 243 days + 0.5395 * 91 days + 0.5595 * 31 days) / 365 days = 0.5345
-        where 243 days = Jan 1 - Aug 31, 91 days = Sep 1 - Nov 30, 31 days = Dec 1 - Dec 31
+        - Jan 01 - Aug 31 (243 days): 52.95p
+        - Sep 01 - Nov 30 (91 days): 53.95p
+        - Dec 01 - Dec 31 (31 days): 55.95p
+        (52.95p * 243 + 53.95p * 91 + 55.95p * 31) / 365 = 53.45p
+        Generated by calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py
   2027-01-01:
-    value: 0.5902
+    value: 0.5925
     metadata:
       reference:
         - title: OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook November 2025
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
       note: |
         Calendar year 2027 average:
-        (0.5595 * 59 days + 0.5795 * 31 days + 0.598 * 275 days) / 365 days = 0.5902
-        where 59 days = Jan 1 - Feb 28, 31 days = Mar 1 - Mar 31, 275 days = Apr 1 - Dec 31
+        - Jan 01 - Feb 28 (59 days): 55.95p
+        - Mar 01 - Mar 31 (31 days): 57.95p
+        - Apr 01 - Dec 31 (275 days): 60.10p
+        (55.95p * 59 + 57.95p * 31 + 60.10p * 275) / 365 = 59.25p
+        Generated by calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py
   2028-01-01:
-    value: 0.6111
+    value: 0.6151
     metadata:
       reference:
         - title: OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook November 2025
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
       note: |
         Calendar year 2028 average (leap year):
-        (0.598 * 91 days + 0.6154 * 275 days) / 366 days = 0.6111
-        where 91 days = Jan 1 - Mar 31, 275 days = Apr 1 - Dec 31
+        - Jan 01 - Mar 31 (91 days): 60.10p
+        - Apr 01 - Dec 31 (275 days): 61.98p
+        (60.10p * 91 + 61.98p * 275) / 366 = 61.51p
+        Generated by calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py
   2029-01-01:
-    value: 0.6290
+    value: 0.6332
     metadata:
       reference:
         - title: OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook November 2025
           href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
       note: |
         Calendar year 2029 average:
-        (0.6154 * 90 days + 0.6334 * 275 days) / 365 days = 0.6290
-        where 90 days = Jan 1 - Mar 31, 275 days = Apr 1 - Dec 31
+        - Jan 01 - Mar 31 (90 days): 61.98p
+        - Apr 01 - Dec 31 (275 days): 63.76p
+        (61.98p * 90 + 63.76p * 275) / 365 = 63.32p
+        Generated by calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py
+  2030-01-01:
+    value: 0.6516
+    metadata:
+      reference:
+        - title: OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook November 2025
+          href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/
+      note: |
+        Calendar year 2030 average:
+        - Jan 01 - Mar 31 (90 days): 63.76p
+        - Apr 01 - Dec 31 (275 days): 65.62p
+        (63.76p * 90 + 65.62p * 275) / 365 = 65.16p
+        Generated by calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py
 metadata:
   unit: currency-GBP
   name: fuel_duty_rate

{policyengine_uk-2.65.0 → policyengine_uk-2.65.2}/policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation/reforms_config.yaml

@@ -4,19 +4,19 @@ reforms:
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[0].rate: 0.21
 - name: Raise higher rate by 1pp
-  expected_impact: 4.9
+  expected_impact: 5.1
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate: 0.42
 - name: Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year
-  expected_impact: -4.2
+  expected_impact: -4.1
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount: 13000
 - name: Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child
-  expected_impact: -1.3
+  expected_impact: -1.2
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.additional: 25
 - name: Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%
-  expected_impact: -27.5  # Updated: was stale -29.2, actual model on master is -27.5
+  expected_impact: -29.3
   parameters:
     gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.reduction_rate: 0.2
 - name: Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ reforms:
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.1
 - name: Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp
-  expected_impact: 18.7
+  expected_impact: 20.7
   parameters:
     gov.hmrc.vat.standard_rate: 0.22
 - name: Raise additional rate by 3pp

{policyengine_uk-2.65.0 → policyengine_uk-2.65.2}/pyproject.toml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 [project] 
 name = "policyengine-uk"
-version = "2.65.0"
+version = "2.65.2"
 description = "PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK."
 readme = "README.md"
 authors = [
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ classifiers = [
 ]
 requires-python = ">=3.13,<3.14"
 dependencies = [
-    "policyengine-core>=3.19.3",
+    "policyengine-core>=3.23.0",
     "microdf-python>=1.0.2",
     "pydantic>=2.11.7",
     "tables>=3.10.2",