PolicyEngine-UK 2.111.2__tar.gz → 2.112.0__tar.gz

{policyengine_uk-2.111.2 → policyengine_uk-2.112.0}/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -1,3 +1,30 @@
+## [2.112.0] - 2026-10-03
+
+### Added
+
+- Add `months_since_last_birthday`, which places a person's date of birth within their year of age, and `months_since_state_pension_age`.
+
+### Changed
+
+- - Read Attendance Allowance from its dataset award category when supplied, retained an explicitly approximate amount fallback otherwise, and applied Northern Ireland's separate AFIP and PIP commencement dates to the legacy severe disability premium.
+
+### Fixed
+
+- - Apply the pensioner Council Tax Reduction earnings disregards in England (SI 2012/2885 Sch 4), Wales (WSI 2013/3029 Sch 3) and Scotland (SSI 2012/319 Sch 2). A pension-age family's net earnings are now reduced by £25 a week for a lone parent, £10 for a couple and £5 otherwise, capped at net earnings, plus the £17.10 additional earnings disregard where a work condition is met and net earnings cover it (£37.10 in Scotland from 6 April 2020 to 4 April 2021). These sums are fixed in law and are not uprated. Before, pensioner CTR disregarded no earnings.
+- - Uprate Northern Ireland domestic rates when projecting datasets, by the growth in the combined regional and district rate poundage (Department of Finance poundages to 2026-27, weighted by council domestic rates paid; 4.33% a year from 2027-28). Previously every projected year kept the data year's bills.
+- Gave the generated adults in the Universal Credit capital-income and State Pension property tests explicit claimant-or-partner roles, so an adult under 20 is no longer presumed to be the other adult's child.
+- The legacy benefit severe disability premium now qualifies on the benefits the Regulations list (Attendance Allowance, the DLA care component at the middle or highest rate, the PIP daily living component at either rate, and Armed Forces Independence Payment), pays a couple only when both partners qualify or the other partner is blind, pays the single rate when a carer benefit is paid for one partner, and is barred by a non-dependant aged 18 or over or by a carer benefit paid for the claimant. The tax credit severe disability flag now counts higher-rate Attendance Allowance and Armed Forces Independence Payment instead of all Armed Forces Compensation Scheme payments.
+- Set State Pension age from each person's date of birth under Pensions Act 1995 Schedule 4 paragraph 1, including the rise from 66 to 67 for people born on or after 6 April 1960 (Pensions Act 2014 s.26): 66-year-olds move below State Pension age through 2026-27 and 2027-28, and are all below it from 2028-29. The Savings Credit age test, the split between basic and new State Pension, and additional State Pension now follow each person's own State Pension age.
+- - Removed NumPy's generic-timedelta deprecation warning from State Pension date arithmetic without changing calculated dates.
+- - Household calculations default an unspecified birthday position to six months before 6 October, implying a 6 April birth date and making an entered age of 66 above State Pension age at that check in 2026-27 and below it in 2027-28, while fractional ages or `months_since_last_birthday` can specify a different inferred birth date even when other people supply birthday months.
+- - Added replacement guidance for reforms, structural reforms, nested scenarios and saved API policies using the removed male and female State Pension age parameters, rejecting obsolete simulation changes before resetting existing policy.
+- - A member at least 16 years younger than a claimant flagged as a parent is now presumed to be their child at any age, unless a member under 20 and at least 16 years younger already explains the flag. So a flagged lone parent living only with an adult son or daughter is no longer inferred as a couple. Without any parent flag the under-20 limit stays, because survey childless couples carry no flags.
+
+### Removed
+
+- Remove `gov.dwp.state_pension.age.male` and `gov.dwp.state_pension.age.female`, a single State Pension age for each year. The statutory timetable by date of birth replaces them: `gov.dwp.state_pension.age.age_by_birth_date` (the age, in months) and `day_by_birth_date` (the day), with `male.age` and `male.born_before` for men born before 6 December 1953. A reform to State Pension age now changes those rows, for example the ages for births from a given date; code that read a State Pension age should read `state_pension_age` or `is_SP_age`.
+
+
 ## [2.111.2] - 2026-10-03
 
 ### Fixed

{policyengine_uk-2.111.2 → policyengine_uk-2.112.0}/PKG-INFO

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.5
 Name: policyengine-uk
-Version: 2.111.2
+Version: 2.112.0
 Summary: PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK.
 Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
 Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

{policyengine_uk-2.111.2 → policyengine_uk-2.112.0}/policyengine_uk/data/uprating_indices.yaml

@@ -21,6 +21,12 @@
 # re-apply 2024-2026 price changes the build has already priced in (#1867).
 # Other consumption variables come from the LCFS at data-year prices and do
 # need uprating, which is why only these three are excluded.
+#
+# Northern Ireland domestic rates grow with the combined regional and district
+# poundage (#1990). Households outside Northern Ireland have none, so the index
+# changes nothing for them.
+gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.finance_ni.domestic_rates:
+- domestic_rates
 gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.average_earnings:
 - employee_pension_contributions
 - employer_pension_contributions

{policyengine_uk-2.111.2 → policyengine_uk-2.112.0}/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/README.md

@@ -19,10 +19,12 @@ generated from it by
 | `road_fuel_volume`      | Petrol + diesel road-fuel clearances                     | HMRC Hydrocarbon Oils + OBR fuel-duty forecast |
 | `petrol_spending_litre_proxy` | Spending growth that preserves road-fuel litres    | HMRC + OBR              |
 | `diesel_spending_litre_proxy` | Same, for diesel                                   | HMRC + OBR              |
+| `finance_ni.domestic_rates` | Average Northern Ireland domestic rates bill (regional plus district poundage) | DoF rate poundages, LPS rates paid, NI draft Budget 2026-29 |
 
 ## Time horizons
 
-Three horizons are stitched together for each series:
+Three horizons are stitched together for each OBR and ONS series (not
+`finance_ni.domestic_rates`, which has its own method, below):
 
 1. **Outturn** (history through 2024): ONS published data, copied from OBR
    detailed forecast tables.
@@ -87,9 +89,9 @@ which the review uses: the April 2025 and April 2026 rises used October's
    detailed forecast tables (note the EFO release month in the header comment).
 2. Recompute the 2031-2073 convergence path so the first long-run year
    continues smoothly from the new last forecast year (no jump).
-3. Run `python policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/create_economic_assumption_indices.py`
-   to regenerate the cumulative `indices/` parameters that uprating depends
-   on.
+3. Nothing needs regenerating: `create_economic_assumption_indices` rebuilds
+   the cumulative `indices` parameters from these series whenever the
+   tax-benefit system processes its parameters (`tax_benefit_system.py`).
 4. Update the EFO reference in each series' `metadata.reference`.
 5. Regenerate `statutory_uprating_inputs/forecast_gap/` from the same EFO.
    `policyengine_uk/utils/import_obr_forecasts.py` does this when it updates
@@ -97,4 +99,32 @@ which the review uses: the April 2025 and April 2026 rises used October's
    `--receipts-url` so September CPI uses the OBR's September forecast. If
    you edit `yoy_growth.yaml` by hand instead, rerun it with `--gaps-only`.
 
+The EFO refresh does not touch `finance_ni.domestic_rates`; OBR does not
+publish a Northern Ireland domestic rates bill series (see below).
+
+## Northern Ireland domestic rates
+
+`finance_ni.domestic_rates` is the growth in the average Northern Ireland
+domestic rates bill: the combined regional and district domestic poundage
+across the 11 councils, each council weighted by its domestic rates paid in
+the previous year. It is a national average, so it does not reproduce any one
+council's bill or changes in reliefs. The comments in
+[`yoy_growth.yaml`](./yoy_growth.yaml) give the derivation and
+`policyengine_uk/tests/test_domestic_rates_uprating.py` recomputes it from the
+published figures. To refresh it each spring:
+
+1. Add the new year's domestic district and regional poundages for every
+   council from the Department of Finance
+   [rate poundages](https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/articles/rate-poundages)
+   tables, and the latest year of Land & Property Services' domestic rates
+   collected by district council, to the tables in that test. The years it
+   checks follow from those tables: published years must match the
+   recomputed growth, and later years must equal the last published year's.
+2. Set the new year's value to the recomputed growth, rounded to 4 decimals,
+   and the projected years after it to the same value (or change the
+   projection rule and its test together).
+3. Revisit that projection against the regional rate Order and any agreed
+   Northern Ireland Budget, and keep it labelled as an assumption. Run the
+   test file.
+
 [rpi-cpi]: https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/

{policyengine_uk-2.111.2 → policyengine_uk-2.112.0}/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml

@@ -1210,21 +1210,79 @@ ofwat:
           href: https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/average-bills-2025-26-press-statement/
 finance_ni:
   domestic_rates:
-    description: Domestic rates year-on-year growth.
+    description: Growth in the average Northern Ireland domestic rates bill (regional rate plus district rate), used to project the domestic_rates dataset input.
+    # A Northern Ireland household's rates bill is its capital value times
+    # the regional rate plus its council's district rate, levied "as if they
+    # were items of a single rate" (Rates (Northern Ireland) Order 1977,
+    # arts 6, 7 and 9). Domestic capital values are still those of the
+    # 1 January 2005 valuation list, so the bill grows with the two
+    # poundages. Each year below is the growth in the combined domestic
+    # poundage across the 11 councils, weighted by each council's domestic
+    # rates paid in the previous year (LPS; the 2020-21 figures stand in for
+    # 2019-20, the first year not published). It is a national average: it
+    # does not reproduce any one council's bill or changes in reliefs.
+    #
+    # Neither OBR March 2026 line covers the whole bill, and OBR labels
+    # neither as regional or district; the attribution here is inferred.
+    # Expenditure Table 4.1 holds "NI domestic rates" at £0.494bn in every
+    # year to 2030-31 inside its council tax total, and ONS classes district
+    # domestic rates with council tax, so it appears to be the district
+    # rates. Receipts Table 3.2 "Northern Ireland domestic rates" (in "Other
+    # taxes") appears to be the regional rate: ONS classes the regional
+    # domestic rate as a central government tax, and with Table 3.2's NI
+    # business rates line it sums to £0.914bn in 2026-27, against DoF's
+    # "just over £900million" from the regional rate that year. Receipts
+    # growth is not bill growth either: Table 3.2 grows 2.0% in 2026-27, a
+    # year whose domestic regional rate rose 5.0%.
     values:
-      2024-01-01: 0.05
-      2025-01-01: 0.047
-      2026-01-01: 0
-      2027-01-01: 0
-      2028-01-01: 0
-      2029-01-01: 0
-      2020-01-01: 0
+      # Outturn: published poundages. Regional rate 0.4574p in 2019-20 to
+      # 2022-23, then 0.4848p, 0.5042p, 0.5294p and 0.5559p (2026-27). The
+      # district figures are each council's district growth, bill-weighted.
+      2020-01-01: 0.0148 # regional 0%, district +3.36%
+      2021-01-01: 0.0066 # regional 0%, district +1.43%
+      2022-01-01: 0.0132 # regional 0%, district +2.90%
+      2023-01-01: 0.0630 # regional +6.0%, district +6.68%
+      2024-01-01: 0.0491 # regional +4.0%, district +5.91%
+      2025-01-01: 0.0474 # regional +5.0%, district +4.46%
+      2026-01-01: 0.0433 # regional +5.0%, district +3.58%
+      # Projection (an assumption, not enacted policy): 2026-27 growth held.
+      # The Finance Minister's 2026-29/30 draft Budget proposals (6 January
+      # 2026, published before Executive agreement; no final Budget found by
+      # October 2026) assume the domestic regional rate rises 5% a year to
+      # 2028-29. No published Northern Ireland-wide district rate forecast
+      # was found, so district growth is assumed to stay at its 2026-27
+      # rate. Regional 5% plus district 3.58% gives 4.34% to 4.36% a year as
+      # the regional share drifts up, within 0.03pp of the value held.
+      # 2029-30 onward extrapolates beyond the draft Budget's resource
+      # period (to 2028-29).
+      2027-01-01: 0.0433
+      2028-01-01: 0.0433
+      2029-01-01: 0.0433
+      2030-01-01: 0.0433
     metadata:
       unit: /1
-      label: Domestic rates growth
+      label: Northern Ireland domestic rates bill growth
       reference:
-        - title: Finance NI (based on outturn)
-          href: https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/
+        - title: Department of Finance, Rate poundages 2024-25 to 2026-27 (domestic regional and district rates by council)
+          href: https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/articles/rate-poundages
+        - title: Department of Finance, Rate poundages 2019-20 to 2023-24 (archived 6 July 2023)
+          href: https://web.archive.org/web/20230706151829/https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/articles/rate-poundages
+        - title: Land & Property Services, Domestic rates collected by district council 2020-21 to 2025-26
+          href: https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/30535a44-0a05-4bff-98cf-001301a6b4d6/rates-paid-by-district-council-and-sector
+        - title: Rates (Regional Rates) Order (Northern Ireland) 2026, art 3(2) (domestic regional rate 0.5559p, 2026-27)
+          href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2026/19/made
+        - title: Rates (Regional Rates) Order (Northern Ireland) 2025, art 3(2) (0.5294p, 2025-26)
+          href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2025/27/made
+        - title: Rates (Regional Rates) Order (Northern Ireland) 2024, art 3(2) (0.5042p, 2024-25)
+          href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisr/2024/28/made
+        - title: Regional Rates (Northern Ireland) Regulations 2023, reg 2(3) (0.4848p, 2023-24)
+          href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2023/198/made
+        - title: Department of Finance, Proposed draft Budget 2026-29/30, written ministerial statement (domestic regional rate +5% a year)
+          href: https://www.niassembly.gov.uk/assembly-business/official-report/written-ministerial-statements/department-of-finance-proposed-draft-budget-2026-2930/
+        - title: Rates (Northern Ireland) Order 1977, arts 6, 7 and 9
+          href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/nisi/1977/2157/article/9
+        - title: ONS, Country and regional public sector finances methodology guide, sections 29 and 30
+          href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/methodologies/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinancesmethodologyguide
 
 carbon_intensity:
   description: Carbon intensity year-over-year growth (decline).

policyengine_uk-2.112.0/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/local_authorities/england/council_tax_reduction/pensioners/earnings_disregard.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+description: Weekly sums the English Council Tax Reduction prescribed requirements disregard from the net earnings of a pensioner applicant and partner.
+single:
+  description: Weekly earnings disregard for a pensioner applicant who has no partner and is not a lone parent, where no £20 disregard applies.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 5
+  metadata:
+    label: England pensioner CTR earnings disregard, single
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes (Prescribed Requirements) (England) Regulations 2012 Sch. 4 para. 8(a)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2012/2885/schedule/4/paragraph/8
+couple:
+  description: Weekly earnings disregard for a pensioner applicant who has a partner, where no £20 disregard applies.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 10
+  metadata:
+    label: England pensioner CTR earnings disregard, couple
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes (Prescribed Requirements) (England) Regulations 2012 Sch. 4 para. 8(b)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2012/2885/schedule/4/paragraph/8
+lone_parent:
+  description: Weekly earnings disregard for a pensioner applicant who is a lone parent.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 25
+  metadata:
+    label: England pensioner CTR earnings disregard, lone parent
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes (Prescribed Requirements) (England) Regulations 2012 Sch. 4 paras. 1(a) and 2
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2012/2885/schedule/4
+additional:
+  description: Weekly increase in the earnings disregard (the additional earnings disregard) where the pensioner applicant meets one of its work conditions and their net earnings at least equal the other disregards, the deductible childcare charges and this amount.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 17.1
+  metadata:
+    label: England pensioner CTR additional earnings disregard
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes (Prescribed Requirements) (England) Regulations 2012 Sch. 4 para. 10(1) and (3)(c)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2012/2885/schedule/4/paragraph/10
+metadata:
+  label: England pensioner CTR earnings disregards

policyengine_uk-2.112.0/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/local_authorities/scotland/council_tax_reduction/pensioners/earnings_disregard.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+description: Weekly sums the Scottish Council Tax Reduction (State Pension Credit) Regulations disregard from the net earnings of an applicant who has attained the qualifying age for state pension credit, and their partner.
+single:
+  description: Weekly earnings disregard for a pension-age applicant who has no partner and is not a lone parent, where no £20 disregard applies.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 5
+  metadata:
+    label: Scotland pension-age CTR earnings disregard, single
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction (State Pension Credit) (Scotland) Regulations 2012 Sch. 2 para. 8(a)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2012/319/schedule/2/paragraph/8
+couple:
+  description: Weekly earnings disregard for a pension-age applicant who has a partner, where no £20 disregard applies.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 10
+  metadata:
+    label: Scotland pension-age CTR earnings disregard, couple
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction (State Pension Credit) (Scotland) Regulations 2012 Sch. 2 para. 8(b)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2012/319/schedule/2/paragraph/8
+lone_parent:
+  description: Weekly earnings disregard for a pension-age applicant who is a lone parent.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 25
+  metadata:
+    label: Scotland pension-age CTR earnings disregard, lone parent
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction (State Pension Credit) (Scotland) Regulations 2012 Sch. 2 paras. 1(a) and 2
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2012/319/schedule/2
+additional:
+  description: Weekly increase in the earnings disregard (the additional earnings disregard) where the pension-age applicant meets one of its work conditions and their net earnings at least equal the other disregards, the deductible childcare charges and this amount.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 17.1
+    # The Council Tax Reduction (Scotland) Amendment (No. 3) (Coronavirus)
+    # Regulations 2020 (SSI 2020/108) reg. 3(a), in force 6 April 2020,
+    # substituted "£37.10 until and including 4 April 2021, and after that
+    # by £17.10" in para. 10(1), and the same words without "by" in para.
+    # 10(3)(c).
+    2020-04-06: 37.1
+    2021-04-05: 17.1
+  metadata:
+    label: Scotland pension-age CTR additional earnings disregard
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction (State Pension Credit) (Scotland) Regulations 2012 Sch. 2 para. 10(1) and (3)(c)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2012/319/schedule/2/paragraph/10
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction (Scotland) Amendment (No. 3) (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020 reg. 3(a)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2020/108/regulation/3
+metadata:
+  label: Scotland pension-age CTR earnings disregards

policyengine_uk-2.112.0/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/local_authorities/wales/council_tax_reduction/pensioners/earnings_disregard.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+description: Weekly sums the Welsh Council Tax Reduction prescribed requirements disregard from the net earnings of a pensioner applicant and partner.
+single:
+  description: Weekly earnings disregard for a pensioner applicant who has no partner and is not a lone parent, where no £20 disregard applies.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 5
+  metadata:
+    label: Wales pensioner CTR earnings disregard, single
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes and Prescribed Requirements (Wales) Regulations 2013 Sch. 3 para. 8(a)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2013/3029/schedule/3/paragraph/8
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes and Prescribed Requirements (Wales) Regulations 2012 Sch. 3 para. 8(a) (financial year 2013-14)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2012/3144/schedule/3/made
+couple:
+  description: Weekly earnings disregard for a pensioner applicant who has a partner, where no £20 disregard applies.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 10
+  metadata:
+    label: Wales pensioner CTR earnings disregard, couple
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes and Prescribed Requirements (Wales) Regulations 2013 Sch. 3 para. 8(b)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2013/3029/schedule/3/paragraph/8
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes and Prescribed Requirements (Wales) Regulations 2012 Sch. 3 para. 8(b) (financial year 2013-14)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2012/3144/schedule/3/made
+lone_parent:
+  description: Weekly earnings disregard for a pensioner applicant who is a lone parent.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 25
+  metadata:
+    label: Wales pensioner CTR earnings disregard, lone parent
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes and Prescribed Requirements (Wales) Regulations 2013 Sch. 3 paras. 1(a) and 2
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2013/3029/schedule/3
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes and Prescribed Requirements (Wales) Regulations 2012 Sch. 3 paras. 1(a) and 2 (financial year 2013-14)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2012/3144/schedule/3/made
+additional:
+  description: Weekly increase in the earnings disregard (the additional earnings disregard) where the pensioner applicant meets one of its work conditions and their net earnings at least equal the other disregards, the deductible childcare charges and this amount.
+  values:
+    2013-04-01: 17.1
+  metadata:
+    label: Wales pensioner CTR additional earnings disregard
+    unit: currency-GBP
+    period: week
+    reference:
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes and Prescribed Requirements (Wales) Regulations 2013 Sch. 3 para. 10(1) and (3)(c)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2013/3029/schedule/3/paragraph/10
+      - title: The Council Tax Reduction Schemes and Prescribed Requirements (Wales) Regulations 2012 Sch. 3 para. 10(1) and (3)(c) (financial year 2013-14)
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2012/3144/schedule/3/made
+metadata:
+  label: Wales pensioner CTR earnings disregards