PolicyEngine-UK 2.102.2__tar.gz → 2.102.4__tar.gz

{policyengine_uk-2.102.2 → policyengine_uk-2.102.4}/CHANGELOG.md

@@ -1,3 +1,17 @@
+## [2.102.4] - 2026-09-30
+
+### Changed
+
+- - Require policyengine-core 3.32.9 or later, which sends `HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN` to public but gated Hugging Face repos such as policyengine-uk-data-private, and stop exporting `HF_TOKEN` in CI, the workaround that release makes unnecessary.
+
+
+## [2.102.3] - 2026-09-28
+
+### Changed
+
+- - Rebase the absolute poverty line to HBAI's FYE 2025 reference year from FYE 2022 onward, as DWP has reported it since March 2026: 431.69 BHC / 373.89 AHC a week at FYE 2025. On the enhanced FRS in 2026-27, absolute poverty rises by about 4 points overall and about 7 points for children after housing costs.
+
+
 ## [2.102.2] - 2026-09-27
 
 ### Fixed

{policyengine_uk-2.102.2 → policyengine_uk-2.102.4}/PKG-INFO

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Metadata-Version: 2.5
 Name: policyengine-uk
-Version: 2.102.2
+Version: 2.102.4
 Summary: PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK.
 Project-URL: Homepage, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
 Project-URL: Repository, https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ Classifier: Programming Language :: Python :: 3.14
 Classifier: Topic :: Scientific/Engineering :: Information Analysis
 Requires-Python: >=3.11
 Requires-Dist: microdf-python>=1.2.1
-Requires-Dist: policyengine-core>=3.30.1
+Requires-Dist: policyengine-core>=3.32.9
 Requires-Dist: pydantic>=2.11.7
 Requires-Dist: tables>=3.10.2
 Provides-Extra: dev

policyengine_uk-2.102.4/policyengine_uk/parameters/household/poverty/absolute_poverty_threshold_ahc.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+description: Absolute poverty threshold for equivalised household net income, after housing costs.
+values:
+  # FYE 2011 reference year: 60% of the FYE 2011 AHC median (359 a week).
+  # HBAI keeps this reference for years before FYE 2022.
+  2010-01-01: 215.4
+  2020-01-01: 261.92
+  # FYE 2025 reference year: 60% of the FYE 2025 AHC median, 373.8864 a
+  # week in HBAI table 2.4ts (the median is 623.14; the report rounds it to
+  # 623). HBAI applies it from FYE 2022, the first year with administrative
+  # data linking. FYE 2022 to FYE 2024 carry the FYE 2025 line back by HBAI's
+  # annual AHC deflator AHCYRDEF: the financial-year average of the ONS CPI
+  # excluding rents, maintenance repairs and water charges (ad hoc 2863),
+  # rounded to 1 decimal place (HBAI variables guide, Deflators sheet): 113.9
+  # (FYE 2022), 126.1 (FYE 2023), 133.2 (FYE 2024) and 135.7 (FYE 2025), so
+  # 373.8864 x AHCYRDEF / 135.7. Later years uprate by headline OBR CPI, an
+  # approximation: HBAI would use its own CPI variants, which the OBR does
+  # not forecast.
+  2021-01-01: 313.82
+  2022-01-01: 347.44
+  2023-01-01: 367.00
+  2024-01-01: 373.89
+metadata:
+  period: week
+  unit: currency-GBP
+  label: Absolute poverty threshold, after housing costs
+  reference:
+    - title: Households Below Average Income FYE 2025 data tables, table 2.4ts (60% of median, couple with no children, 373.8864 a week AHC in 2024/25)
+      href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69c2902a7e02b81c0d1c7762/hbai-data_tables-2025.zip
+    - title: Households Below Average Income FYE 1995 to FYE 2025, median household income (AHC median 623 a week, rounded, in FYE 2025)
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2025/households-below-average-income-an-analysis-of-the-uk-income-distribution-fye-1995-to-fye-2025#median-household-income--increase-to-719-bhc-and-623-ahc-in-fye-2025
+    - title: Households Below Average Income FYE 2025, background information and methodology, section 2.3 (absolute reference year updated to FYE 2025 from FYE 2022)
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2025/households-below-average-income-background-information-and-methodology-report-fye-2025#update-to-the-absolute-low-income-reference-year
+    - title: HBAI statistics collection, administrative-linked back series for FYE 2019 to FYE 2021 (and with it the FYE 2025 reference) moved from summer 2026 to the March 2027 release
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/households-below-average-income-hbai--2#planned-summer-2026-update-for-201819-to-202021
+    - title: DWP statistical notice on adjusting for inflation (CPI variant excluding rents, maintenance repairs and water charges for AHC)
+      href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a8027f7ed915d74e622ccc2/dwp-family-household-income-stats-adjusting-for-inflation-statistical-notice.pdf#page=3
+    - title: HBAI harmonised dataset variables guide FYE 2025, Deflators sheet (annual deflators BHCYRDEF and AHCYRDEF, financial-year averages rounded to 1 decimal place)
+      href: https://doc.ukdataservice.ac.uk/doc/5828/mrdoc/excel/5828_hbai_2425_harmonised_dataset_variables_guide.xlsx
+    - title: ONS ad hoc 2863, consumer price indices series for DWP (sheet 1a, AHC deflator)
+      href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/adhocs/2863consumerpriceindicesseriesexcludingrentsmaintenancerepairsandwaterchargesfortheperiodjanuary1996toapril2025
+    - title: Households Below Average Income, 2010/11 (FYE 2011 reference year)
+      href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/200720/full_hbai12.pdf#page=35
+  uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.consumer_price_index

policyengine_uk-2.102.4/policyengine_uk/parameters/household/poverty/absolute_poverty_threshold_bhc.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+description: Absolute poverty threshold for equivalised household net income, before housing costs.
+values:
+  # FYE 2011 reference year: 60% of the FYE 2011 BHC median (419 a week).
+  # HBAI keeps this reference for years before FYE 2022.
+  2010-01-01: 251.4
+  2020-01-01: 305.7
+  # FYE 2025 reference year: 60% of the FYE 2025 BHC median, 431.6886 a
+  # week in HBAI table 2.4ts (the median is 719.48; the report rounds it to
+  # 719). HBAI applies it from FYE 2022, the first year with administrative
+  # data linking. FYE 2022 to FYE 2024 carry the FYE 2025 line back by HBAI's
+  # annual BHC deflator BHCYRDEF: the financial-year average of the ONS
+  # experimental CPI including mortgage interest payments, ground rent and
+  # dwelling insurance (ad hoc 2863), rounded to 1 decimal place (HBAI
+  # variables guide, Deflators sheet): 113.1 (FYE 2022), 124.9 (FYE 2023),
+  # 133.2 (FYE 2024) and 137.1 (FYE 2025), so 431.6886 x BHCYRDEF / 137.1.
+  # These ratios reproduce the deflator implied by HBAI table 1.2a. Later
+  # years uprate by headline OBR CPI, an approximation: HBAI would use its
+  # own CPI variants, which the OBR does not forecast.
+  2021-01-01: 356.12
+  2022-01-01: 393.27
+  2023-01-01: 419.41
+  2024-01-01: 431.69
+metadata:
+  period: week
+  unit: currency-GBP
+  label: Absolute poverty threshold, before housing costs
+  reference:
+    - title: Households Below Average Income FYE 2025 data tables, table 2.4ts (60% of median, couple with no children, 431.6886 a week BHC in 2024/25)
+      href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69c2902a7e02b81c0d1c7762/hbai-data_tables-2025.zip
+    - title: Households Below Average Income FYE 1995 to FYE 2025, median household income (BHC median 719 a week, rounded, in FYE 2025)
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2025/households-below-average-income-an-analysis-of-the-uk-income-distribution-fye-1995-to-fye-2025#median-household-income--increase-to-719-bhc-and-623-ahc-in-fye-2025
+    - title: Households Below Average Income FYE 2025, background information and methodology, section 2.3 (absolute reference year updated to FYE 2025 from FYE 2022)
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2025/households-below-average-income-background-information-and-methodology-report-fye-2025#update-to-the-absolute-low-income-reference-year
+    - title: HBAI statistics collection, administrative-linked back series for FYE 2019 to FYE 2021 (and with it the FYE 2025 reference) moved from summer 2026 to the March 2027 release
+      href: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/households-below-average-income-hbai--2#planned-summer-2026-update-for-201819-to-202021
+    - title: DWP statistical notice on adjusting for inflation (CPI variant including mortgage interest payments, ground rent and dwelling insurance for BHC)
+      href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a8027f7ed915d74e622ccc2/dwp-family-household-income-stats-adjusting-for-inflation-statistical-notice.pdf#page=3
+    - title: HBAI harmonised dataset variables guide FYE 2025, Deflators sheet (annual deflators BHCYRDEF and AHCYRDEF, financial-year averages rounded to 1 decimal place)
+      href: https://doc.ukdataservice.ac.uk/doc/5828/mrdoc/excel/5828_hbai_2425_harmonised_dataset_variables_guide.xlsx
+    - title: ONS ad hoc 2863, consumer price indices series for DWP (sheet 1b, BHC deflator)
+      href: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/adhocs/2863consumerpriceindicesseriesexcludingrentsmaintenancerepairsandwaterchargesfortheperiodjanuary1996toapril2025
+    - title: Households Below Average Income, 2010/11 (FYE 2011 reference year)
+      href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/200720/full_hbai12.pdf#page=35
+  uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.consumer_price_index

policyengine_uk-2.102.4/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/household/poverty/hbai_family_type_lines.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+# HBAI FYE 2025 data table 2.4ts: 60% of median equivalised income translated
+# to cash for each family type, pounds a week in 2024/25 prices. At FYE 2025
+# (period 2024) the absolute line is 60% of the FYE 2025 median, so each
+# household's poverty_line_* should equal these values times 52 (margin: the
+# penny rounding of the weekly parameter). Children aged 5 and 14 exercise the
+# modified OECD scale's under-14 and 14-and-over weights.
+
+- name: Single person with no children, BHC 289.2314 and AHC 216.8541 a week
+  period: 2024
+  absolute_error_margin: 1
+  input:
+    people:
+      adult:
+        age: 40
+    benunits:
+      benunit:
+        members: [adult]
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [adult]
+  output:
+    poverty_line_bhc: 15_040.0
+    poverty_line_ahc: 11_276.4
+
+- name: Couple with two children aged 5 and 14, BHC 660.4836 and AHC 605.6960 a week
+  period: 2024
+  absolute_error_margin: 1
+  input:
+    people:
+      adult_1:
+        age: 40
+      adult_2:
+        age: 40
+      child_1:
+        age: 5
+      child_2:
+        age: 14
+    benunits:
+      benunit:
+        members: [adult_1, adult_2, child_1, child_2]
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [adult_1, adult_2, child_1, child_2]
+  output:
+    poverty_line_bhc: 34_345.1
+    poverty_line_ahc: 31_496.2
+
+- name: Single adult with two children aged 5 and 14, BHC 518.0264 and AHC 448.6637 a week
+  period: 2024
+  absolute_error_margin: 1
+  input:
+    people:
+      adult:
+        age: 40
+      child_1:
+        age: 5
+      child_2:
+        age: 14
+    benunits:
+      benunit:
+        members: [adult, child_1, child_2]
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [adult, child_1, child_2]
+  output:
+    poverty_line_bhc: 26_937.4
+    poverty_line_ahc: 23_330.5

{policyengine_uk-2.102.2 → policyengine_uk-2.102.4}/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/household/poverty/poverty_threshold_ahc.yaml

@@ -9,10 +9,10 @@
       household:
         members: [person]
   output:
-    # 60% of the 2010/11 AHC median uprated by CPI: 326.76 a week in 2024.
-    poverty_threshold_ahc: 16_991.6
+    # 60% of the FYE 2025 AHC median (HBAI table 2.4ts): 373.89 a week in 2024.
+    poverty_threshold_ahc: 19_442.3
     # A single adult's AHC equivalisation factor is 0.58.
-    poverty_line_ahc: 9_855.1
+    poverty_line_ahc: 11_276.5
 
 - name: A single adult on 5,000 of earnings is below the AHC absolute line
   period: 2024
@@ -43,3 +43,31 @@
         council_tax: 0
   output:
     in_poverty_ahc: false
+
+- name: FYE 2022 (2021) is the first year on the FYE 2025 AHC reference, carried back by HBAI's AHC deflator
+  period: 2021
+  absolute_error_margin: 1
+  input:
+    people:
+      person:
+        age: 40
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [person]
+  output:
+    # 373.8864 x AHCYRDEF 113.9 / 135.7 = 313.82 a week.
+    poverty_threshold_ahc: 16_318.6
+
+- name: FYE 2021 (2020) keeps the FYE 2011 AHC reference
+  period: 2020
+  absolute_error_margin: 1
+  input:
+    people:
+      person:
+        age: 40
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [person]
+  output:
+    # 261.92 a week.
+    poverty_threshold_ahc: 13_619.8

policyengine_uk-2.102.4/policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/household/poverty/poverty_threshold_bhc.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+- name: The BHC absolute threshold is the weekly parameter times 52, unequivalised; poverty_line_bhc is the same line scaled by the equivalisation factor
+  period: 2024
+  absolute_error_margin: 1
+  input:
+    people:
+      person:
+        age: 40
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [person]
+  output:
+    # 60% of the FYE 2025 BHC median (HBAI table 2.4ts): 431.69 a week in 2024.
+    poverty_threshold_bhc: 22_447.9
+    # A single adult's BHC equivalisation factor is 0.67. HBAI table 2.4ts
+    # gives 289.23 a week for a single person (15,040 a year).
+    poverty_line_bhc: 15_040.1
+    poverty_line: 15_040.1
+
+- name: FYE 2022 (2021) is the first year on the FYE 2025 BHC reference, carried back by HBAI's BHC deflator
+  period: 2021
+  absolute_error_margin: 1
+  input:
+    people:
+      person:
+        age: 40
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [person]
+  output:
+    # 431.6886 x BHCYRDEF 113.1 / 137.1 = 356.12 a week.
+    poverty_threshold_bhc: 18_518.2
+
+- name: FYE 2021 (2020) keeps the FYE 2011 BHC reference
+  period: 2020
+  absolute_error_margin: 1
+  input:
+    people:
+      person:
+        age: 40
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [person]
+  output:
+    # 305.70 a week.
+    poverty_threshold_bhc: 15_896.4
+
+- name: A single adult on 12,000 of earnings is below the BHC absolute line in 2024
+  period: 2024
+  input:
+    people:
+      person:
+        age: 40
+        employment_income: 12_000
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [person]
+        rent: 0
+        council_tax: 0
+  output:
+    in_poverty_bhc: true
+
+- name: A single adult on 30,000 of earnings is above the BHC absolute line in 2024
+  period: 2024
+  input:
+    people:
+      person:
+        age: 40
+        employment_income: 30_000
+    households:
+      household:
+        members: [person]
+        rent: 0
+        council_tax: 0
+  output:
+    in_poverty_bhc: false

policyengine_uk-2.102.4/policyengine_uk/tests/test_absolute_poverty_reference_year.py

@@ -0,0 +1,275 @@
+"""The HBAI absolute low-income line uses the FYE 2025 reference year from FYE 2022.
+
+HBAI FYE 2025 (DWP, 26 March 2026) moved the absolute low-income reference
+year from FYE 2011 to FYE 2025 for every year with administrative data
+linking, currently FYE 2022 onward. The summer 2026 extension back to FYE 2019
+was moved to the March 2027 release, so FYE 2021 and earlier keep the FYE 2011
+line. policyengine-uk labels FYE 2025 (2024-25) as period 2024.
+
+Invariants:
+
+1. Anchor: at FYE 2025 the lines are 60% of the FYE 2025 medians to the
+   penny: HBAI table 2.4ts gives 431.6886 (BHC) and 373.8864 (AHC) a week,
+   60% of the unrounded medians in table 2.1ts (the report rounds them to
+   719 and 623).
+2. Back-cast: for FYE 2022 to FYE 2024 each line equals the FYE 2025 line
+   times the ratio of HBAI's annual deflators (BHCYRDEF / AHCYRDEF), to the
+   penny. Each annual deflator is the financial-year average of the monthly
+   index (BHC: ONS experimental CPI including mortgage interest payments,
+   ground rent and dwelling insurance; AHC: CPI excluding rents, maintenance
+   repairs and water charges; ONS ad hoc 2863), rounded half up to 1 decimal
+   place, as in the HBAI variables guide's Deflators sheet. Rounding the
+   monthly transcription reproduces the guide's published annual values. As
+   an independent check, the BHC deflator ratios reproduce the deflator DWP
+   used, backed out of HBAI table 1.2a (mean income growth in cash and in
+   real terms), to 1e-9. Unrounded averages and headline CPI do not.
+3. Switch year: FYE 2022 (period 2021) is the first year on the FYE 2025
+   reference; FYE 2021 (period 2020) and earlier keep the FYE 2011 line.
+4. Forward uprating: for every year from FYE 2025, both lines move with OBR
+   CPI, so the AHC/BHC ratio stays at its FYE 2025 value.
+5. The AHC line is below the BHC line in every year, and both are positive.
+6. Variable layer: poverty_threshold_* is the weekly line times 52, and the
+   absolute poverty flags hold exactly when equivalised income is below it.
+"""
+
+from decimal import ROUND_HALF_UP, Decimal
+from statistics import fmean
+
+import pytest
+from hypothesis import HealthCheck, given, settings
+from hypothesis import strategies as st
+
+from policyengine_uk import Simulation
+from policyengine_uk.system import system
+
+POVERTY = system.parameters.household.poverty
+CPI = system.parameters.gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.consumer_price_index
+
+# HBAI FYE 2025 population medians, pounds a week in 2024/25 prices, from
+# data table 2.1ts; the main report rounds them to 719 (BHC) and 623 (AHC).
+MEDIAN_FYE_2025 = {"bhc": 719.4810615125072, "ahc": 623.1440591131203}
+# 60% of median for the reference couple, table 2.4ts.
+LINE_TABLE_2_4TS = {"bhc": 431.6886369075043, "ahc": 373.88643546787216}
+FYE_2025 = 2024
+FIRST_REBASED_YEAR = 2021  # FYE 2022
+
+# Monthly indices (2015 = 100), April to March of each financial year, from
+# ONS ad hoc 2863 (released 5 June 2025): sheet 1b is the BHC deflator and
+# sheet 1a the AHC deflator.
+DEFLATOR = {
+    "bhc": {
+        2021: (110.0, 110.6, 111.2, 111.2, 111.9, 112.2)
+        + (113.4, 114.2, 114.9, 114.8, 115.8, 117.0),
+        2022: (119.9, 120.7, 121.7, 122.6, 123.2, 123.9)
+        + (126.4, 127.0, 127.6, 127.1, 128.7, 129.7),
+        2023: (131.4, 132.3, 132.6, 132.2, 132.8, 133.5)
+        + (133.6, 133.4, 134.0, 133.4, 134.2, 135.1),
+        2024: (135.6, 136.1, 136.3, 136.1, 136.6, 136.6)
+        + (137.4, 137.5, 138.0, 137.9, 138.5, 139.0),
+    },
+    "ahc": {
+        2021: (110.5, 111.2, 111.8, 111.7, 112.6, 112.9)
+        + (114.3, 115.2, 115.8, 115.6, 116.6, 118.0),
+        2022: (121.2, 122.0, 123.1, 123.8, 124.5, 125.1)
+        + (127.8, 128.3, 128.8, 127.9, 129.5, 130.6),
+        2023: (132.1, 133.0, 133.2, 132.3, 132.8, 133.5)
+        + (133.4, 133.0, 133.6, 133.1, 133.9, 134.7),
+        2024: (134.7, 135.1, 135.2, 134.6, 134.9, 135.0)
+        + (135.9, 136.0, 136.4, 136.2, 136.8, 137.3),
+    },
+}
+
+# HBAI's published annual deflators (BHCYRDEF, AHCYRDEF), HBAI harmonised
+# dataset variables guide FYE 2025, Deflators sheet (UK Data Service study
+# 5828).
+HBAI_YRDEF = {
+    "bhc": {2021: 113.1, 2022: 124.9, 2023: 133.2, 2024: 137.1},
+    "ahc": {2021: 113.9, 2022: 126.1, 2023: 133.2, 2024: 135.7},
+}
+
+
+def yrdef(measure, year):
+    """Financial-year average of the monthly index, rounded half up to 1dp."""
+    months = [Decimal(str(m)) for m in DEFLATOR[measure][year]]
+    average = sum(months) / len(months)
+    return float(average.quantize(Decimal("0.1"), rounding=ROUND_HALF_UP))
+
+
+# The FYE 2011 line as policyengine-uk has carried it (60% of the FYE 2011
+# medians of 419 and 359 a week, and its FYE 2021 value).
+FYE_2011_LINE = {
+    "bhc": {2010: 251.4, 2020: 305.7},
+    "ahc": {2010: 215.4, 2020: 261.92},
+}
+
+PROPERTY_SETTINGS = settings(
+    max_examples=25,
+    deadline=None,
+    derandomize=True,
+    suppress_health_check=[HealthCheck.too_slow],
+)
+
+
+def line(measure, year):
+    return getattr(
+        system.parameters(str(year)).household.poverty,
+        f"absolute_poverty_threshold_{measure}",
+    )
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("measure", ["bhc", "ahc"])
+def test_fye_2025_line_is_60_percent_of_the_published_median(measure):
+    # Transcription check on the constants above: table 2.4ts is 60% of the
+    # table 2.1ts median.
+    assert LINE_TABLE_2_4TS[measure] == pytest.approx(
+        0.6 * MEDIAN_FYE_2025[measure], rel=1e-12
+    )
+    # The model's line is the table 2.4ts value to the penny.
+    assert line(measure, FYE_2025) == pytest.approx(
+        round(LINE_TABLE_2_4TS[measure], 2), abs=1e-9
+    )
+
+
+def test_ahc_and_bhc_lines_come_from_the_same_publication():
+    assert line("bhc", FYE_2025) == pytest.approx(431.69, abs=1e-9)
+    assert line("ahc", FYE_2025) == pytest.approx(373.89, abs=1e-9)
+    # Not the lines implied by the report's rounded medians (719, 623).
+    assert line("bhc", FYE_2025) != pytest.approx(0.6 * 719, abs=0.05)
+    assert line("ahc", FYE_2025) != pytest.approx(0.6 * 623, abs=0.05)
+    assert line("ahc", FYE_2025) / line("bhc", FYE_2025) == pytest.approx(
+        MEDIAN_FYE_2025["ahc"] / MEDIAN_FYE_2025["bhc"], rel=1e-4
+    )
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("measure", ["bhc", "ahc"])
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", [2021, 2022, 2023, 2024])
+def test_rounded_monthly_average_is_hbais_annual_deflator(measure, year):
+    assert len(DEFLATOR[measure][year]) == 12
+    assert yrdef(measure, year) == HBAI_YRDEF[measure][year]
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("measure", ["bhc", "ahc"])
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", [2021, 2022, 2023])
+def test_back_cast_matches_hbai_deflators(measure, year):
+    expected = (
+        LINE_TABLE_2_4TS[measure] * yrdef(measure, year) / yrdef(measure, FYE_2025)
+    )
+    rounded = float(
+        Decimal(str(expected)).quantize(Decimal("0.01"), rounding=ROUND_HALF_UP)
+    )
+    assert line(measure, year) == pytest.approx(rounded, abs=1e-9)
+
+
+# HBAI table 1.2a, mean net disposable unequivalised income growth (BHC),
+# percent, in cash terms and in real terms; the ratio is DWP's BHC deflator.
+# FYE 2022 is omitted: it straddles the series break, and FYE 2021 used an
+# earlier deflator vintage.
+HBAI_TABLE_1_2A = {
+    2022: {"cash": 9.26741118619525, "real": -1.0556909114590507},
+    2023: {"cash": 4.927077630138066, "real": -1.611171201169781},
+    2024: {"cash": 6.289097504035901, "real": 3.265556437181605},
+}
+HEADLINE_CPI_FYE_2025 = 2.360610087969106  # table 1.2a, CPI inflation
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("year", sorted(HBAI_TABLE_1_2A))
+def test_bhc_deflator_matches_the_one_dwp_used(year):
+    row = HBAI_TABLE_1_2A[year]
+    dwp_growth = 100 * ((1 + row["cash"] / 100) / (1 + row["real"] / 100) - 1)
+    ours = 100 * (yrdef("bhc", year) / yrdef("bhc", year - 1) - 1)
+    assert ours == pytest.approx(dwp_growth, rel=1e-9)
+    # Unrounded financial-year averages miss by about 0.02 points.
+    unrounded = 100 * (
+        fmean(DEFLATOR["bhc"][year]) / fmean(DEFLATOR["bhc"][year - 1]) - 1
+    )
+    assert abs(unrounded - dwp_growth) > 0.01
+    # The parameters carry the same growth, up to penny rounding.
+    assert 100 * (line("bhc", year) / line("bhc", year - 1) - 1) == pytest.approx(
+        dwp_growth, abs=0.005
+    )
+
+
+def test_headline_cpi_would_not_match_the_bhc_deflator():
+    row = HBAI_TABLE_1_2A[FYE_2025]
+    dwp_growth = 100 * ((1 + row["cash"] / 100) / (1 + row["real"] / 100) - 1)
+    assert abs(HEADLINE_CPI_FYE_2025 - dwp_growth) > 0.5
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("measure", ["bhc", "ahc"])
+def test_switch_year_is_fye_2022(measure):
+    old = FYE_2011_LINE[measure]
+    # FYE 2021 and earlier keep the FYE 2011 line.
+    assert line(measure, 2010) == pytest.approx(old[2010], abs=1e-9)
+    assert line(measure, 2020) == pytest.approx(old[2020], abs=1e-9)
+    # FYE 2022 is the first rebased year: well above the FYE 2011 line
+    # carried forward by a year of CPI.
+    carried = old[2020] * CPI(str(FIRST_REBASED_YEAR)) / CPI("2020")
+    assert line(measure, FIRST_REBASED_YEAR) > 1.1 * carried
+    # And it is the back-cast of the FYE 2025 line, not the FYE 2011 one.
+    back_cast = (
+        LINE_TABLE_2_4TS[measure]
+        * HBAI_YRDEF[measure][FIRST_REBASED_YEAR]
+        / HBAI_YRDEF[measure][FYE_2025]
+    )
+    assert line(measure, FIRST_REBASED_YEAR) == pytest.approx(back_cast, abs=0.005)
+
+
+@PROPERTY_SETTINGS
+@given(year=st.integers(min_value=FYE_2025, max_value=2040))
+def test_lines_uprate_with_cpi_from_fye_2025(year):
+    growth = CPI(str(year)) / CPI(str(FYE_2025))
+    for measure in ("bhc", "ahc"):
+        assert line(measure, year) == pytest.approx(
+            line(measure, FYE_2025) * growth, rel=1e-9
+        )
+    assert line("ahc", year) / line("bhc", year) == pytest.approx(
+        line("ahc", FYE_2025) / line("bhc", FYE_2025), rel=1e-9
+    )
+
+
+@PROPERTY_SETTINGS
+@given(year=st.integers(min_value=2010, max_value=2040))
+def test_ahc_line_is_positive_and_below_bhc_line(year):
+    assert 0 < line("ahc", year) < line("bhc", year)
+
+
+@PROPERTY_SETTINGS
+@given(
+    year=st.sampled_from([2020, 2021, 2024, 2026]),
+    earnings=st.lists(
+        st.floats(min_value=0, max_value=60_000, allow_nan=False),
+        min_size=1,
+        max_size=8,
+    ),
+)
+def test_absolute_poverty_flags_follow_the_line(year, earnings):
+    period = str(year)
+    people = {
+        f"p{i}": {"age": {period: 40}, "employment_income": {period: e}}
+        for i, e in enumerate(earnings)
+    }
+    households = {
+        f"h{i}": {
+            "members": [f"p{i}"],
+            "rent": {period: 0},
+            "council_tax": {period: 0},
+        }
+        for i in range(len(earnings))
+    }
+    benunits = {f"b{i}": {"members": [f"p{i}"]} for i in range(len(earnings))}
+    sim = Simulation(
+        situation={
+            "people": people,
+            "benunits": benunits,
+            "households": households,
+        }
+    )
+    for measure, income_variable in (
+        ("bhc", "equiv_hbai_household_net_income"),
+        ("ahc", "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc"),
+    ):
+        threshold = sim.calculate(f"poverty_threshold_{measure}", year)
+        assert threshold == pytest.approx(line(measure, year) * 52, rel=1e-6)
+        income = sim.calculate(income_variable, year)
+        flags = sim.calculate(f"in_poverty_{measure}", year)
+        assert list(flags) == list(income < threshold)

{policyengine_uk-2.102.2 → policyengine_uk-2.102.4}/policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/in_poverty_ahc.py

@@ -7,8 +7,10 @@ class in_poverty_ahc(Variable):
     label = "Whether the household is in absolute poverty, after housing costs"
     documentation = (
         "Absolute poverty: equivalised HBAI net income after housing costs "
-        "below the 2010/11 60%-of-median line uprated by CPI "
-        "(poverty_threshold_ahc). This is the HBAI absolute low income "
+        "below 60% of the reference-year median held constant in real terms "
+        "(poverty_threshold_ahc). The reference year is FYE 2025 from FYE "
+        "2022 onward and FYE 2011 before, as in HBAI since March 2026. This "
+        "is the HBAI absolute low income "
         "measure; the relative measure (60% of the contemporary median) is "
         "in_relative_poverty_ahc."
     )

{policyengine_uk-2.102.2 → policyengine_uk-2.102.4}/policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/in_poverty_bhc.py

@@ -7,8 +7,10 @@ class in_poverty_bhc(Variable):
     label = "Whether the household is in absolute poverty, before housing costs"
     documentation = (
         "Absolute poverty: equivalised HBAI net income before housing costs "
-        "below the 2010/11 60%-of-median line uprated by CPI "
-        "(poverty_threshold_bhc). This is the HBAI absolute low income "
+        "below 60% of the reference-year median held constant in real terms "
+        "(poverty_threshold_bhc). The reference year is FYE 2025 from FYE "
+        "2022 onward and FYE 2011 before, as in HBAI since March 2026. This "
+        "is the HBAI absolute low income "
         "measure; the relative measure (60% of the contemporary median) is "
         "in_relative_poverty_bhc."
     )

{policyengine_uk-2.102.2 → policyengine_uk-2.102.4}/policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/poverty_threshold_ahc.py

@@ -5,7 +5,8 @@ class poverty_threshold_ahc(Variable):
     label = "Poverty threshold (AHC)"
     documentation = (
         "The absolute poverty line after housing costs for a couple with no "
-        "children, per year: 60% of the 2010/11 median uprated by CPI. "
+        "children, per year: 60% of the FYE 2025 median (FYE 2011 before "
+        "FYE 2022), held constant in real terms. "
         "Compare against equivalised income; poverty_line_ahc is the same "
         "line scaled to the household's equivalisation factor."
     )

{policyengine_uk-2.102.2 → policyengine_uk-2.102.4}/policyengine_uk/variables/household/income/poverty_threshold_bhc.py

@@ -5,7 +5,8 @@ class poverty_threshold_bhc(Variable):
     label = "Poverty threshold (BHC)"
     documentation = (
         "The absolute poverty line before housing costs for a couple with no "
-        "children, per year: 60% of the 2010/11 median uprated by CPI. "
+        "children, per year: 60% of the FYE 2025 median (FYE 2011 before "
+        "FYE 2022), held constant in real terms. "
         "Compare against equivalised income; poverty_line_bhc is the same "
         "line scaled to the household's equivalisation factor."
     )

{policyengine_uk-2.102.2 → policyengine_uk-2.102.4}/pyproject.toml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 [project] 
 name = "policyengine-uk"
-version = "2.102.2"
+version = "2.102.4"
 description = "PolicyEngine tax and benefit system for the UK."
 readme = "README.md"
 authors = [
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ classifiers = [
 ]
 requires-python = ">=3.11"
 dependencies = [
-    "policyengine-core>=3.30.1",
+    "policyengine-core>=3.32.9",
     "microdf-python>=1.2.1",
     "pydantic>=2.11.7",
     "tables>=3.10.2",