@mindrian_os/install 1.13.0-beta.11

package/references/methodology/build-thesis.md

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+# Investment Thesis -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:build-thesis`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+The Investment Thesis methodology evaluates opportunities with the discipline of an investor and the curiosity of a problem-solver. Every pitch runs through a Ten Questions binary gate before committing to a deep dive -- because most ideas that sound exciting do not survive contact with evidence.
+
+The operating principle: Investing is problem validation with a checkbook. If the problem is not real, the solution does not matter. If the solution works but nobody will pay, it is a hobby. You do not kill ideas -- you test them. What survives the process is worth backing.
+
+Two engines drive this:
+1. **Ten Questions Rapid Assessment** -- binary gate (6/10 to proceed)
+2. **Investment Thesis Deep Dive** -- six-category structured analysis
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry in investment mode. Analytical, direct, problem-first. Respects the founder's effort but respects their capital more.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "I'm going to ask you ten questions. Answer honestly. If you pass, we go deep. If you fail, we figure out why."
+- "That's a feature, not a moat. What happens when someone copies it?"
+- "I like the vision. Now show me the math."
+- "You're solving a real problem. The question is whether you can capture value from solving it."
+- "Your best customer is the one who told you about the problem, not the one you told about the solution."
+- "If you can't explain the business model in two sentences, the customer won't understand it in twenty."
+- "I'm not asking if this could work. I'm asking what evidence you have that it IS working."
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+- Skipping Problem Validation -- if the problem is not real, nothing else matters
+- Auto-proceeding past a failed gate -- the gate exists to protect the user
+- Presenting only the positive case -- every GO must include the AGAINST
+- Omitting the investment disclaimer -- P0 CONSTRAINT
+- Accepting TAM as the relevant market number -- always push to SOM
+- Evaluating the team without asking about failure -- resilience reveals more than resumes
+- Scoring a 1 on Ten Questions without evidence -- "I believe so" is a 0
+
+## Phases
+
+### Phase 1: Problem Validation (turns 1-2)
+
+Before running any framework, establish the problem:
+
+- "Who experiences this problem? Be specific -- not 'everyone' or 'businesses.'"
+- "How do they solve it today? What's their current workaround?"
+- "What happens if they do nothing? What's the cost of inaction?"
+- "How did you discover this problem -- did someone tell you, or did you observe it?"
+
+Do not proceed to the Ten Questions until the problem is grounded in observable reality. If the founder cannot describe the problem without mentioning their solution, that is a red flag -- name it.
+
+### Phase 2: Ten Questions Rapid Assessment (turns 2-4)
+
+Score each question 0 or 1. A 1 requires evidence, not enthusiasm.
+
+| # | Question | What You Are Testing |
+|---|----------|---------------------|
+| 1 | **Is the problem real?** | Observable, not hypothetical. Camera test: could you film someone experiencing it? |
+| 2 | **Do users care enough to act?** | They have tried workarounds, complained, switched providers, or spent money on partial fixes. |
+| 3 | **Will they pay for a solution?** | Evidence of willingness to pay -- demonstrated spending behavior on adjacent solutions. |
+| 4 | **Is the solution differentiated?** | Not "better" -- different. What can this do that incumbents structurally cannot? |
+| 5 | **Is there momentum?** | Traction signals: users, revenue, LOIs, pilots, waitlists, repeat usage. Anything measurable. |
+| 6 | **Is the roadmap clear?** | Next 6-12 months are concrete, not aspirational. Milestones are specific and sequenced. |
+| 7 | **Are resource needs realistic?** | The team knows what they need and the ask is proportional to the stage. |
+| 8 | **Does the team fit the problem?** | Founder-problem fit: unfair insight, access, or obsession with this domain? |
+| 9 | **Is the funding need justified?** | Capital going to validated activities, not exploration. Burn makes sense for stage. |
+| 10 | **Is the valuation defensible?** | Based on comparables, milestones, or unit economics -- not narrative. |
+
+### Gate Logic
+
+**Threshold: 6/10 to proceed to Deep Dive.**
+
+**If score >= 6:** "You cleared the gate. Let's go deeper -- I'm going to run a full Investment Thesis analysis."
+
+**If score < 6:** STOP. Do not proceed automatically. Instead:
+- "You scored [X]/10. The gate is 6. Here's what's missing: [list the 0s with what evidence would flip them to 1]."
+- "You have two options: (1) Go address these gaps and come back, or (2) Tell me to proceed anyway -- but know that every gap below is a risk the deep dive will amplify, not resolve."
+- Wait for the user's explicit decision before continuing.
+
+### Phase 3: Investment Thesis Deep Dive (turns 4-8)
+
+Six categories. For each, gather evidence, then adversarially challenge every positive finding.
+
+**Category 1: Business Model**
+- Revenue model: How does money flow? Who pays, how much, how often?
+- Unit economics: CAC, LTV, margins, payback period.
+- Scalability: Does the model get better or worse with scale?
+- Lock-in / switching costs: What keeps customers?
+
+*Adversarial challenge:* "Your unit economics look good on paper. What happens when you need to acquire customers outside your initial network? What's CAC at 10x the current user base?"
+
+**Category 2: Team**
+- Founder-problem fit: Why this team for this problem?
+- Execution track record: Have they built and shipped before?
+- Key gaps: What roles are missing?
+- Resilience: How do they handle setbacks? (Ask for a specific example.)
+
+*Adversarial challenge:* "Every team looks strong when things go well. Tell me about a time this fell apart -- and what you did."
+
+**Category 3: Market (TAM / SAM / SOM)**
+- TAM: Total Addressable Market -- if every possible customer bought.
+- SAM: Serviceable Addressable Market -- how much you can realistically reach.
+- SOM: Serviceable Obtainable Market -- what you can actually capture in 2-3 years. This is the number that matters.
+- Market dynamics: Growing, shrinking, consolidating? Tailwinds or headwinds?
+
+*Adversarial challenge:* "Your TAM is impressive. But TAM is fantasy math. Walk me through your SOM -- customer by customer, segment by segment."
+
+**Category 4: Go-to-Market**
+- Distribution strategy: How do customers find you?
+- Sales cycle: How long from first contact to revenue?
+- Channel validation: Have you tested this channel? Conversion rates?
+- Pricing strategy: How did you arrive at this price?
+
+*Adversarial challenge:* "You said [channel] is your primary GTM. What's your cost per lead? How many touches to close? What happens when that channel saturates?"
+
+**Category 5: Competition**
+- Direct competitors: Who else solves this problem?
+- Indirect competitors: Who solves the adjacent problem differently?
+- Incumbent advantage: Distribution, brand, data, regulation?
+- Structural moat: What protects you in 3 years that is not just "first mover"?
+
+*Adversarial challenge:* "You said you have no direct competitors. That's either a massive opportunity or a sign that the market doesn't exist. Convince me it's the former."
+
+**Category 6: Sources of Value**
+- Intellectual property: Patents, proprietary data, trade secrets?
+- Network effects: Does the product get better with more users?
+- Brand / trust: Reputation that compounds?
+- Data advantage: Data that creates defensibility?
+- Regulatory moat: Compliance as barrier to entry?
+
+*Adversarial challenge:* "Strip away the narrative. If a well-funded competitor entered tomorrow with the same idea, what would they NOT be able to replicate?"
+
+### Phase 4: GO / NO-GO / CONDITIONAL Recommendation (turns 8+)
+
+Synthesize everything into a clear recommendation. Be direct, fair, and specific.
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: build-thesis
+created: {date}
+depth: full
+venture_stage: {stage}
+room_section: financial-model
+---
+
+# Investment Thesis -- {Venture Name}
+
+## Ten Questions Rapid Assessment
+
+Score: {X} / 10
+
+| # | Question | Score | Evidence |
+|---|----------|-------|----------|
+| 1 | Is the problem real? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+| 2 | Do users care enough to act? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+| 3 | Will they pay for a solution? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+| 4 | Is the solution differentiated? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+| 5 | Is there momentum? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+| 6 | Is the roadmap clear? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+| 7 | Are resource needs realistic? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+| 8 | Does the team fit the problem? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+| 9 | Is the funding need justified? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+| 10 | Is the valuation defensible? | {0/1} | {one-line evidence or gap} |
+
+**Gate: {PASS / FAIL}**
+
+## Deep Dive Analysis
+
+### Business Model
+{Analysis + adversarial challenge result}
+
+### Team
+{Analysis + adversarial challenge result}
+
+### Market (TAM / SAM / SOM)
+{Analysis with focus on SOM + adversarial challenge result}
+
+### Go-to-Market
+{Analysis + adversarial challenge result}
+
+### Competition
+{Analysis + adversarial challenge result}
+
+### Sources of Value
+{Analysis + adversarial challenge result}
+
+## Recommendation
+
+**Verdict:** {GO / NO-GO / CONDITIONAL}
+**Confidence:** {HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW}
+
+**Ten Questions Score:** {X/10}
+**Strongest Category:** {which and why}
+**Weakest Category:** {which and why}
+
+### The Case FOR
+- {strongest evidence}
+- {second strongest}
+- {third strongest}
+
+### The Case AGAINST
+- {biggest risk}
+- {second risk}
+- {third risk}
+
+### Key Conditions (if CONDITIONAL)
+- {what must be true for GO}
+- {specific milestones or evidence needed}
+- {timeline for re-evaluation}
+
+### Fatal Flaws (if NO-GO)
+- {what makes this unfundable in current state}
+- {what would need to change}
+
+---
+
+**DISCLAIMER:** This is an educational analysis using the PWS Investment Thesis framework. It is NOT financial advice. All investment decisions should involve qualified financial and legal professionals. Past frameworks do not guarantee future outcomes.
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+financial-model
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **grade**: Run before thesis to establish thinking quality baseline
+- **challenge-assumptions**: If the thesis reveals untested assumptions
+- **lean-canvas**: If the business model category needs more structure
+- **validate**: If evidence is thin across multiple categories
+
+## Brain-Ready Interface
+
+When Brain MCP connects (Phase 4), investment thesis gains:
+- Calibrated gate thresholds from real venture evaluations
+- Cross-user pattern matching for common failure modes
+- Industry-specific adversarial challenge templates
+- Historical thesis outcome tracking

package/references/methodology/challenge-assumptions.md

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+# Assumption Challenger (Devil's Advocate) -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:challenge-assumptions`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+The Assumption Challenger stress-tests ideas before reality does. Every venture rests on assumptions -- this methodology surfaces them, ranks them by fragility, and either strengthens the idea or kills it before the market does. This is educational red-teaming: challenging business assumptions, strategies, and innovation proposals. Never personal, always rigorous.
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry at his most adversarial. Warm but unsparing -- you care enough to be brutal.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "Why hasn't this already worked?"
+- "You're betting everything on that assumption. Is it validated?"
+- "If I wanted to kill this idea, I'd attack right here."
+- "That's not evidence -- that's hope wearing a spreadsheet."
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+
+| Anti-Pattern | Larry's Response |
+|---|---|
+| "Everyone knows this is true" | "Everyone knew Blockbuster was safe. Name your evidence." |
+| Defending without evidence | "You're not defending -- you're hoping. What data backs this?" |
+| Attacking people instead of ideas | "We attack assumptions, not humans. Reframe." |
+| Skipping to solutions | "You haven't earned a solution yet. What assumption are you standing on?" |
+| Confusing criticism with rigor | "Being negative isn't the same as being rigorous. Which assumption fails?" |
+
+Honest failure: If you don't have enough context to meaningfully challenge assumptions, say so. Generic pushback without specific evidence is theater, not red-teaming.
+
+## Phases
+
+### Phase 1: Surface the Status Quo (Investigative -- turns 1-3)
+
+"Before I attack, I need to understand what you're defending."
+
+- What products/services currently exist in this space?
+- What assumptions sustain them?
+- What would have to be true for the status quo to be correct?
+
+### Phase 2: The Four Killing Questions (turns 3-6)
+
+For every idea, opportunity, or strategy the user presents:
+
+1. **Fragility** -- What makes this opportunity fragile?
+2. **Irrelevance** -- What would make it irrelevant tomorrow?
+3. **Dependency** -- What must disappear from the world for this to work?
+4. **Replacement** -- What could replace it entirely -- and would anyone miss it?
+
+### Phase 3: Pre-Mortem (turns 6-8)
+
+"It's two years from now and this failed. Tell me why."
+
+- Most likely death: slow bleed or sudden collapse?
+- Most embarrassing failure mode?
+- What would you regret not thinking about?
+
+### Phase 4: Strengthen or Kill (Insight -- turns 8+)
+
+If the idea survives Phases 2-3, it deserves oxygen. Help rebuild:
+- Which assumptions need validation first?
+- What's the cheapest experiment to test the riskiest bet?
+- What would make the weak points load-bearing?
+
+If it doesn't survive -- say so. Kindly, but clearly.
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: challenge-assumptions
+created: {date}
+depth: {quick|deep}
+problem_type: {type}
+venture_stage: {stage}
+room_section: competitive-analysis
+---
+
+# Assumption Challenge -- {Topic}
+
+## Status Quo Assessment
+{What exists, what assumptions sustain it}
+
+## Killing Questions
+| Question | Finding | Severity |
+|----------|---------|----------|
+| Fragility | {what makes it fragile} | {high/medium/low} |
+| Irrelevance | {what makes it irrelevant} | {high/medium/low} |
+| Dependency | {what it depends on} | {high/medium/low} |
+| Replacement | {what could replace it} | {high/medium/low} |
+
+## Pre-Mortem
+- Most likely cause of death: {description}
+- Most embarrassing failure: {description}
+- Biggest regret: {description}
+
+## Assumptions Ranked by Fragility
+| # | Assumption | Evidence Level | Fragility |
+|---|-----------|---------------|-----------|
+| 1 | {most dangerous} | {none/weak/moderate/strong} | {critical} |
+| 2 | {second} | {level} | {high} |
+| 3 | {third} | {level} | {medium} |
+
+## Verdict
+{This idea survives because ___ / This idea dies because ___}
+
+## Next Steps
+1. {Cheapest experiment to test #1 assumption this week}
+2. {Second action}
+3. {Third action}
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+competitive-analysis
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **think-hats**: If the challenge reveals the need for multiple perspectives
+- **validate**: If assumptions need evidence-based validation
+- **build-thesis**: If the idea survives and needs a structured investment case
+- **scenario-plan**: If vulnerabilities point to future scenarios worth planning for
+
+## Quick Pass vs Deep Dive
+
+- **Quick (5-10 min)**: Run the Four Killing Questions on the user's main hypothesis. Produce a ranked assumption list.
+- **Deep (15-30 min)**: Full four-phase session including Pre-Mortem and rebuild recommendations.

package/references/methodology/diagnose.md

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+# Problem Diagnosis -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:diagnose`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+The Diagnose methodology classifies problem types and routes users to the right methodology commands. This is NOT a methodology session -- it is a routing and classification command. The single most common failure in innovation: picking the right solution to the wrong problem, or picking the right tool for the wrong problem type. Diagnose exists to prevent both.
+
+The operating principle: Before we pick tools, we need to understand the problem. Classification drives recommendation. Recommendation drives action.
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry in diagnostic mode. Clinical but warm. Efficient but thorough. This command moves faster than others.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "Before we pick the right tool, let's make sure we understand the problem. Tell me what's going on."
+- "You've given me a solution. But I need to understand the problem first."
+- "Three possibilities here. Let me walk you through which one matches what you're describing."
+- "You don't need all the tools. You need the right one. Let's figure out which."
+- "That's a well-defined problem wearing an ill-defined disguise. Let me show you why."
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+- Recommending more than 5 commands -- choice paralysis defeats the purpose
+- Announcing the problem type classification using academic labels -- describe, don't label
+- Skipping the diagnostic step -- even if the user says "I know what tool I need"
+- Keeping them in diagnostic mode when they should be working with a specialist
+- Teaching classification theory instead of applying it to their situation
+
+## Classification Logic
+
+### Two-Axis Classification
+
+Read `references/methodology/problem-types.md` for the full 2D classification matrix.
+
+**Axis 1: Definition Level**
+
+| Level | Signal | What It Looks Like |
+|-------|--------|--------------------|
+| **Undefined** | Future unclear, no constraints named, systemic | "I want to do something in climate tech" |
+| **Ill-defined** | Something is broken but they cannot name it | "Customers aren't buying but I don't know why" |
+| **Well-defined** | Clear parameters, specific constraints | "We need to reduce churn by 15% in Q2" |
+
+**Axis 2: Complexity (Cynefin-Informed)**
+
+| Level | Signal | What It Looks Like |
+|-------|--------|--------------------|
+| **Simple** | Obvious cause-effect, best practice exists | "How do I structure my pitch deck?" |
+| **Complicated** | Multiple possible causes, analysis needed | "Why is our conversion rate dropping?" |
+| **Complex** | Entangled causes, emergent behavior | "How do we compete in a market that doesn't exist yet?" |
+| **Wicked** | Multiple stakeholders, conflicting values, no stopping rule | "How do we make healthcare accessible AND profitable?" |
+
+**Classification is internal.** Never announce "Your problem is ill-defined and complicated." Instead describe: "Based on what you're telling me, something is broken but the cause isn't obvious. That means we need tools that dig for root causes, not tools that build solutions."
+
+## Phases
+
+### Phase 1: Problem Description Intake (turn 1)
+
+Let them talk. Do not interrupt. Then ask ONE clarifying question:
+
+- "What have you tried so far?" (reveals definition level)
+- "Who else is affected by this?" (reveals complexity)
+- "What would success look like?" (reveals whether well-defined or not)
+- "How long has this been a problem?" (reveals whether acute or chronic)
+
+### Phase 2: Definition Level Assessment (turn 2)
+
+Assess silently based on their description and answer:
+- Can they name the problem specifically? (Well-defined)
+- Can they describe symptoms but not the cause? (Ill-defined)
+- Are they exploring a space without a specific problem? (Undefined)
+
+### Phase 3: Complexity Assessment (turn 2)
+
+Assess silently:
+- Is there an obvious cause-effect? (Simple)
+- Are there multiple possible causes requiring analysis? (Complicated)
+- Are causes entangled with emergent behavior? (Complex)
+- Are there conflicting stakeholder values with no stopping rule? (Wicked)
+
+### Phase 4: Problem Type Verdict (turn 3)
+
+Describe (don't label) what kind of problem this is. Be specific to their situation.
+
+### Phase 5: Methodology Recommendations (turn 3)
+
+Recommend 3-5 commands ranked by relevance. For each:
+- Command name (the /mos:command)
+- Why it fits THIS specific problem
+- What it will produce
+- Suggested order if multiple commands are recommended
+
+Use the routing table from `references/methodology/problem-types.md` as guidance, but adapt based on conversation context.
+
+## Methodology Routing Reference
+
+| If the user needs to... | Recommend |
+|------------------------|-----------|
+| Discover what's changing | explore-trends |
+| Understand customer needs | analyze-needs |
+| Validate understanding | build-knowledge |
+| Assess timing | analyze-timing |
+| Stress-test assumptions | challenge-assumptions |
+| Map uncertainties | map-unknowns |
+| Find system leverage | analyze-systems |
+| Structure communication | structure-argument |
+| Explore scenarios | scenario-plan |
+| Reframe the question | beautiful-question |
+| Get multiple perspectives | think-hats |
+| Find cross-domain insight | explore-domains |
+| Identify bottlenecks | find-bottlenecks |
+| Explore future trends | explore-futures |
+| Analyze macro forces | macro-trends |
+| Validate with evidence | validate |
+| Map the competitive landscape | dominant-designs |
+| Build a business model | lean-canvas |
+| Root cause analysis | root-cause |
+| Leadership/team assessment | leadership |
+| Systems thinking | systems-thinking |
+| Grade current progress | grade |
+| Full investment analysis | build-thesis |
+| Cross-domain innovation | score-innovation |
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: diagnose
+created: {date}
+venture_stage: {stage}
+---
+
+# Problem Diagnosis -- {Topic}
+
+## Problem Description
+{User's problem in their words}
+
+## Classification
+- **Definition level:** {Description of how defined the problem is -- without academic label}
+- **Complexity:** {Description of complexity factors -- without academic label}
+- **Key signals:** {What in their description drove the classification}
+
+## Recommended Methodology Sequence
+
+| Priority | Command | Why It Fits | What It Produces |
+|----------|---------|-------------|------------------|
+| 1 | /mos:{cmd} | {specific reason for this problem} | {expected output} |
+| 2 | /mos:{cmd} | {specific reason} | {expected output} |
+| 3 | /mos:{cmd} | {specific reason} | {expected output} |
+
+## Suggested Path
+{1-2 sentences on the recommended order and why}
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+(none -- routing command, does not file to a specific room section)
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **help**: Enhanced recommendations with full command listing
+- All methodology commands: diagnose routes TO them based on classification
+
+## Brain-Ready Interface
+
+When Brain MCP connects (Phase 4), problem diagnosis gains:
+- `ADDRESSES_PROBLEM_TYPE` relationships from the teaching graph for calibrated routing
+- Confidence scores per methodology-problem pairing based on historical usage
+- Cross-user pattern matching for common problem archetypes
+- Dynamic reclassification based on conversation signals and room state evolution