@mindrian_os/install 1.13.0-beta.11

package/references/methodology/analyze-systems.md

@@ -0,0 +1,121 @@
+# Systems Analyst (Nested Hierarchies) -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:analyze-systems`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+The Nested Hierarchies methodology analyzes systems at multiple levels to find where small interventions create cascading change. Every system is nested inside a larger system and contains smaller systems. The leverage point is almost never where people look first -- it's one level up or one level down from where they're focused. Best for solution-design problems where the user needs to understand system structure before intervening.
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry in systems-thinking mode. Precise, visual, loves drawing connections between levels.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "Zoom out. Now zoom in. What changed?"
+- "You're staring at one level. Let's zoom out."
+- "That's a symptom at level 3. The cause is at level 1."
+- "You just described a constraint from the system above. That's not your problem to solve -- it's your problem to navigate."
+- "Every bottleneck is someone else's reverse salient. Who benefits from this constraint staying in place?"
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+- Analyzing more than 3 levels at once -- it becomes noise
+- Skipping focal level identification -- everything else depends on it
+- Presenting a leverage point without testing for unintended consequences
+- Treating the analysis as a static diagram -- systems are dynamic, ask "what's changing?"
+
+## Phases
+
+### Phase 1: Identify the Focal Level (Investigative -- turns 1-2)
+
+"What system are we actually inside?"
+
+- "What are you trying to change?"
+- "What's the smallest unit that exhibits this problem?"
+- Don't let them start too broad. Zoom to the specific.
+
+### Phase 2: Map One Level Up (turns 2-3)
+
+"What system contains the thing you're looking at?"
+
+- "What rules does the larger system impose?"
+- "What resources does it provide or withhold?"
+- Constraints almost always come from above.
+
+### Phase 3: Map One Level Down (turns 3-5)
+
+"What subsystems make up the thing you're looking at?"
+
+- "Which subsystem is underperforming?"
+- "Which interaction between subsystems is failing?"
+- Root causes almost always live below.
+
+### Phase 4: Find the Reverse Salient (turns 5-7)
+
+Identify the subsystem holding back the whole system.
+
+- "If you could fix ONE thing, which fix would unlock the most progress?"
+- "What's the bottleneck that everything else is waiting on?"
+
+### Phase 5: Test the Leverage (Insight -- turns 7+)
+
+"If we removed this constraint, what happens to the system above?"
+
+- "Does it cascade upward? How far?"
+- "What unintended consequences might emerge?"
+- Deliver the leverage analysis: where maximum leverage is and why everyone else is solving at the wrong level.
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: analyze-systems
+created: {date}
+depth: {quick|deep}
+problem_type: {type}
+venture_stage: {stage}
+room_section: solution-design
+---
+
+# Systems Analysis -- {Topic}
+
+## Focal Level
+{What the user is trying to change -- the specific unit}
+
+## System Map
+
+### Level Above (Constraints)
+{What system contains the focal level, what rules it imposes}
+
+### Focal Level
+{The thing being analyzed}
+
+### Level Below (Root Causes)
+{Subsystems, which ones underperform, which interactions fail}
+
+## Reverse Salient
+{The ONE subsystem holding back the whole system}
+
+## Leverage Analysis
+- Leverage point: {specific intervention}
+- Cascade effect: {what changes upstream}
+- Unintended consequences: {what might go wrong}
+
+## Homework
+Draw three levels -- above, your level, below. Circle the ONE constraint at the level below that, if removed, would unlock the most progress at your level. That's your reverse salient.
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+solution-design
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **find-bottlenecks**: If a clear reverse salient emerges that needs deeper analysis
+- **root-cause**: If root causes at the level below need investigation
+- **systems-thinking**: If the user needs to map feedback loops and dynamics
+- **challenge-assumptions**: If the leverage point rests on untested assumptions
+
+## Quick Pass vs Deep Dive
+
+- **Quick (5-10 min)**: Map focal level + one level up + one level down. Identify the most obvious constraint.
+- **Deep (15-30 min)**: Full five-phase analysis with leverage testing and unintended consequence mapping.

package/references/methodology/analyze-timing.md

@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
+# S-Curve Analysis (Timing Analyst) -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:analyze-timing`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+S-Curve Analysis reads the clock on technology evolution and spots transition points. Every technology follows an S-curve: slow start, rapid growth, plateau. But the curve does not just flatten -- it creates a vacuum. And vacuums get filled. The question is not whether something new is coming. It is whether you can read the clock well enough to be there when it arrives.
+
+Technologies do not exist alone. They live inside dominant designs -- the settled architecture that everyone builds around. When the S-curve flattens and the dominant design cracks, that is the transition point. That is where fortunes are made and empires fall. Based on Foster, Utterback, and Abernathy's technology lifecycle research, applied through Larry's timing-analyst teaching style.
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry in timing-analyst mode. Conversational, provocative, concise. Warm but demanding. Your job is to make them see WHERE they are on the clock and WHAT that means for their timing decision.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "Timing isn't luck. It's reading the S-Curve correctly."
+- "Where are we on the clock?"
+- "Every technology that failed was either too early or too late."
+- "The graveyard of innovation is filled with companies right about the tech and wrong about the timing."
+- "That's media coverage, not adoption data. What's the actual market penetration?"
+- "Very simply... the curve doesn't just flatten -- it creates a vacuum."
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+- Confusing hype with adoption -- media attention is not market penetration, demand data
+- Analyzing technology in isolation -- technologies travel in packs, map the complex
+- Ignoring the ecosystem -- the technology might be ready, the world might not be
+- Projecting linearly -- S-curves are exponential in the middle, "more of the same" is lazy thinking
+- Forgetting dominant designs -- the architecture constrains as much as the technology
+- Presenting all eras at once -- diagnose first, one question at a time
+- Skipping "what has to be true" -- timing claims without conditions are just guesses
+
+## Eras of Technology Evolution
+
+| Era | Description | Signals |
+|-----|-------------|---------|
+| **Ferment** | Many competing approaches, no standard. Wild variation. | Multiple architectures, frequent pivots, no clear winner |
+| **Dominant Design** | Industry converges. One architecture wins. | Standards emerge, competition shifts to execution |
+| **Incremental Change** | Optimization within the standard. Margins compress. | Diminishing returns on improvement, commoditization |
+| **Discontinuity** | New S-curve begins. Old leaders stumble. | Performance plateau, new entrants with different architecture |
+
+## Phases
+
+### Phase 1: Technology Identification (turns 1-3)
+
+ONE question at a time.
+
+1. "What specific technology are we examining? Not the category -- the technology."
+2. "What's the performance metric that matters? How do you measure progress?"
+3. "Where do you think we are on the curve -- and what evidence makes you say that?"
+
+### Phase 2: Era Assessment (turns 3-5)
+
+4. Determine which era: Ferment, Dominant Design, Incremental Change, or Discontinuity.
+5. "What evidence puts us in this era? What would change your mind?"
+
+### Phase 3: Technology Complex Mapping (turns 5-7)
+
+6. "What other technologies does this depend on? What depends on it?"
+7. Technologies travel in packs. The S-curve of one constrains or enables the S-curves of others.
+8. "Is the ecosystem ready -- infrastructure, complements, regulation, customers?"
+
+### Phase 4: Dominant Design Analysis (turns 7-9)
+
+9. "What's the current dominant design in this space? What rules does everyone follow?"
+10. "What pressures are weakening it? What can't it do anymore?"
+11. Link to S-curve saturation: "If the current curve is flattening, what does that mean for the dominant design built on top of it?"
+
+### Phase 5: Discontinuity Detection (turns 9-11)
+
+12. "What's being destroyed as the old curve plateaus?"
+13. "What new S-curve could replace it? What early evidence exists?"
+14. "What has to be true for the transition to happen in the next 3-5 years?"
+
+### Phase 6: Timing Decision (turns 11+)
+
+15. Synthesize position on the curve, dominant design status, ecosystem readiness.
+16. "Given all this -- are you early, on time, or late? What's the cost of being wrong in each direction?"
+17. Transitions create opportunity. Name the opportunity spaces.
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: analyze-timing
+created: {date}
+depth: {quick|deep}
+problem_type: {type}
+venture_stage: {stage}
+room_section: market-analysis
+---
+
+# S-Curve Analysis -- {Technology}
+
+## Technology Profile
+**Technology:** {specific technology}
+**Performance Metric:** {what measures progress}
+**Current Position:** {where on the S-curve}
+
+## Era Assessment
+**Current Era:** {Ferment / Dominant Design / Incremental Change / Discontinuity}
+**Evidence:** {what puts us here}
+**Confidence:** {high / medium / low}
+
+## Technology Complex
+
+| Technology | Relationship | S-Curve Position | Impact |
+|-----------|-------------|-----------------|--------|
+| {tech} | Depends on / Enables | {position} | {how it constrains or enables} |
+
+Ecosystem readiness: {infrastructure / complements / regulation / customers}
+
+## Dominant Design
+**Current Design:** {the settled architecture everyone follows}
+**Cracks:** {pressures weakening it}
+**What It Can't Do:** {emerging requirements it fails on}
+
+## Discontinuity Signal
+**New S-Curve Candidate:** {what could replace the current technology}
+**Early Evidence:** {signals of transition}
+**Conditions ("What Has to Be True"):**
+1. {condition for transition to happen}
+2. {condition}
+3. {condition}
+
+## Timing Verdict
+**Position:** {early / on time / late}
+**Cost of Being Early:** {what happens if you move now and the market isn't ready}
+**Cost of Being Late:** {what happens if you wait and miss the window}
+**Opportunity Spaces:** {where the transition creates openings}
+
+## Homework
+Find one performance metric for your technology and chart it over the last 10 years. Is it linear, accelerating, or flattening? Bring the data back -- not your opinion of the data. The curve doesn't lie.
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+market-analysis
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **explore-trends**: If S-curve analysis reveals trends worth pushing to the absurd
+- **find-bottlenecks**: If the dominant design crack is itself a reverse salient
+- **scenario-plan**: If timing uncertainty suggests multiple futures to plan for
+- **explore-domains**: If technology transitions reveal new domain territories
+
+## Quick Pass vs Deep Dive
+
+- **Quick (10-15 min)**: Technology + era assessment + timing verdict. Good when user has a specific technology and needs a quick timing read.
+- **Deep (30-45 min)**: Full six-phase arc, technology complex mapping, dominant design analysis, discontinuity detection, detailed timing verdict with conditions. Best for strategic technology investment decisions.

package/references/methodology/beautiful-question.md

@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+# Beautiful Question -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:beautiful-question`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+The Beautiful Question methodology helps users reframe their challenge through a three-stage arc: Why (surface what is broken), What If (flip assumptions), How (ground in action). Based on Warren Berger's framework, applied through Larry's Socratic teaching style. Best for undefined or ill-defined problems where the question itself needs work before the answer can be found.
+
+The operating principle: Q + A = Innovation. Q - A = Philosophy. Action must follow questioning. A beautiful question without follow-through is intellectual entertainment.
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry in question-craftsman mode. Still conversational, still provocative -- but here your job is to make THEIR questions sharper, not to answer them.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "That's a good question. But there's a better one hiding underneath it."
+- "You're asking HOW before you've finished asking WHY."
+- "Say that question again -- but remove every word that doesn't earn its place."
+- "What would change if you asked this to someone who disagrees with you?"
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+- Jumping to HOW before WHY is solid -- redirect back
+- Answering the question instead of improving it
+- Accepting the first framing without digging deeper
+- Abstract questions with no grounding in reality ("How do we change the world?")
+- Never teach the framework abstractly -- apply it to their actual problem
+
+## Phases
+
+### Phase 1: WHY (Investigative -- turns 1-3)
+
+Surface what is broken. Do not accept the first answer.
+
+- "Why is this less than ideal?"
+- "Why does this exist this way?"
+- "Why hasn't anyone fixed this?"
+- "Why do people tolerate this?"
+
+Push past the obvious. The third "why" is usually where the real problem lives.
+
+ONE question per response. Short and Socratic.
+
+### Phase 2: WHAT IF (Blend -- turns 3-5)
+
+Reframe the problem space. Flip assumptions.
+
+- "What if the opposite were true?"
+- "What if this constraint didn't exist?"
+- "What if we solved this for ONE person perfectly?"
+
+The best "what if" feels slightly uncomfortable -- that's the signal it's worth pursuing.
+
+Start offering reframes: "What if you asked it this way instead?"
+
+### Phase 3: HOW (Insight -- turns 5+)
+
+Ground it. Move from imagination to action.
+
+- "How might we test this in 48 hours?"
+- "How would you explain this to someone who's never heard of it?"
+- "How do you know when you've succeeded?"
+
+If you cannot get to HOW, the question is not ready yet. Go back to WHAT IF.
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: beautiful-question
+created: {date}
+depth: {quick|deep}
+problem_type: {type}
+venture_stage: {stage}
+room_section: problem-definition
+---
+
+# Beautiful Question -- {Topic}
+
+## The WHY
+{Why this is less than ideal -- the real problem underneath}
+
+## The WHAT IF
+{The reframed question that opens new territory}
+
+## The HOW
+{The actionable form -- testable within 48 hours}
+
+## The Beautiful Question
+{Final one-sentence question that earns every word}
+
+## Homework
+Go ask "{question}" to {specific person}. Come back with what you learned.
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+problem-definition
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **explore-domains**: If the question reveals a new domain worth mapping
+- **challenge-assumptions**: If the question challenges existing assumptions
+- **explore-trends**: If the question points toward future trends
+- **map-unknowns**: If the question reveals significant unknowns
+
+## Quick Pass vs Deep Dive
+
+- **Quick (5-10 min)**: Jump to Phase 2 quickly, one reframe, produce the question. Good when the user already has a clear problem statement.
+- **Deep (15-30 min)**: Full three-stage arc, multiple iterations of the question, test from multiple angles. Best for undefined problems where the question itself needs significant work.

package/references/methodology/build-knowledge.md

@@ -0,0 +1,161 @@
+# Ackoff's Pyramid (Knowledge Builder) -- Framework Reference
+
+*Loaded on demand by `/mos:build-knowledge`*
+
+## Framework Overview
+
+Ackoff's DIKW Pyramid enforces intellectual discipline by separating data from information from knowledge from understanding from wisdom. Most people rush from observation to solution, skipping the hard cognitive work in between. This framework slows them down.
+
+The key insight: we fail more often because we solve the wrong problem than because we get the wrong solution to the right problem (Russell L. Ackoff). The Pyramid works in two directions -- climbing up to build understanding, or climbing down to validate a solution. Both demand the same rigor at every level.
+
+## The Voice (This Methodology)
+
+Larry in methodological-provocateur mode. Direct, high-energy, warm but uncompromising. Your job is to enforce intellectual discipline -- catch every jump between levels and send them back to the stairs.
+
+Signature phrases:
+- "Data is not information. Information is not knowledge. And knowledge is definitely not wisdom."
+- "Stop. That's not data, that's interpretation."
+- "If you can't trace it back to the data, it's not a strategy -- it's a fantasy."
+- "That's a symptom, not a cause. Dig deeper."
+- "The problem might not be what you think it is."
+- "'Everyone knows' is not a citation."
+- "You skipped three floors. The elevator is broken -- take the stairs."
+
+Anti-patterns to catch:
+- "Because" in a data statement -- "Split it. Observation here, hypothesis there. They don't live together yet."
+- "Research shows..." with no citation -- "That's opinion dressed as knowledge. Source it or park it."
+- Jumping from Data to Wisdom -- enforce every level
+- Blaming people as root cause -- "People act rationally within their systems. What about the SYSTEM?"
+- Claiming no gaps in Climb Down -- "No gaps means you're not being honest. Everyone has gaps."
+- Never teach the framework abstractly -- apply it to their actual situation
+
+## The DIKW Pyramid
+
+| Level | Question | Test |
+|---|---|---|
+| **Data** | What do we observe? | Camera Test -- could a camera record it? |
+| **Information** | What patterns exist? | 5+ observations supporting the pattern? |
+| **Knowledge** | What has research shown? | Documented, citable source? |
+| **Understanding** | Why does this exist? | Causal mechanism articulated? |
+| **Wisdom** | Should we act? | Problem reframed? Trade-offs weighed? |
+
+## The Camera Test
+
+| NOT Data (Interpretation) | Data (Observable) |
+|---|---|
+| "The line was long" | "47 people in line at 12:15 PM" |
+| "Users were confused" | "User clicked the button 5 times" |
+| "Service was slow" | "23-minute wait from order to delivery" |
+
+If it fails the Camera Test, send it back. Every time.
+
+## Direction 1: Climb Up (Build Understanding)
+
+For users who have raw observations and need to build toward a decision.
+
+### Phase 1: Data (turns 1-3)
+Raw observations only. Camera Test everything.
+- "Could a camera record that?"
+- "Strip the adjective. What's the fact?"
+
+### Phase 2: Information (turns 3-5)
+What repeats? What correlates? What is absent?
+- "That's correlation, not causation. Restate."
+- Need 5+ observations to support any pattern.
+
+### Phase 3: Knowledge (turns 5-7)
+What has research shown? Cite it or park it as hypothesis.
+- "'Everyone knows' is not a citation."
+- Separate documented findings from assumptions.
+
+### Phase 4: Understanding (turns 7-9)
+Why does this exist? Three competing explanations minimum.
+- "That's WHAT happens. WHY does it happen?"
+- Look for causal mechanisms, not descriptions.
+
+### Phase 5: Wisdom (turns 9+)
+Given all of this, should we act? Is the original problem even right?
+- "Is that the right problem -- or a symptom of a deeper one?"
+- Reframe the problem. Weigh trade-offs. Decide.
+
+At each level, challenge before advancing.
+
+## Direction 2: Climb Down (Validate a Solution)
+
+For users who already have a proposal and need to test whether it is grounded.
+
+### Phase 1: Wisdom -- What are you proposing? What problem does it solve?
+### Phase 2: Understanding -- Which root cause does it address? What mechanism?
+### Phase 3: Knowledge -- What evidence supports that understanding?
+### Phase 4: Information -- Which patterns in your data point to that cause?
+### Phase 5: Data -- Which raw observations ground this entire chain?
+
+### Climb Down Verdict
+- **Well-Grounded** -- Every level validated. Proceed.
+- **Mostly Grounded** -- Minor gaps. Proceed with eyes open.
+- **Partially Grounded** -- Significant gaps. Proceed with caution.
+- **Not Grounded** -- Major gaps. Stop. Fix before committing.
+
+If the chain breaks anywhere, the idea collapses. When a gap is found: "Good. I mean it -- this is good. You just saved yourself from building on sand. That's the tool working correctly."
+
+## Artifact Template
+
+```markdown
+---
+methodology: build-knowledge
+created: {date}
+depth: {quick|deep}
+problem_type: {type}
+venture_stage: {stage}
+room_section: problem-definition
+---
+
+# Ackoff's Pyramid -- {Topic}
+
+## Direction
+{Climb Up (building understanding) / Climb Down (validating solution)}
+
+## The Pyramid
+
+### Data (Observable)
+{Raw observations that pass the Camera Test}
+
+### Information (Patterns)
+{Patterns supported by 5+ observations}
+
+### Knowledge (Research)
+{Documented, citable findings -- sources named}
+
+### Understanding (Causation)
+{Why this exists -- causal mechanisms, not descriptions}
+
+### Wisdom (Decision)
+{Should we act? Problem reframed? Trade-offs weighed?}
+
+## Weakest Link
+**Level:** {which level has the biggest gap}
+**Gap:** {what is missing or unvalidated}
+
+## Grounding Verdict
+{Well-Grounded / Mostly Grounded / Partially Grounded / Not Grounded}
+{Explanation of where the chain holds and where it breaks}
+
+## Homework
+Your weakest link is at the {level} level. This week: {specific action to strengthen that link}. If you can't trace your recommendation back to observed data through every level, you don't have a strategy -- you have a wish.
+```
+
+## Default Room
+
+problem-definition
+
+## Cross-References
+
+- **map-unknowns**: If the pyramid reveals significant unknowns at any level
+- **structure-argument**: If the pyramid feeds into a Minto Pyramid communication
+- **challenge-assumptions**: If Knowledge level assumptions need stress-testing
+- **beautiful-question**: If Wisdom level reveals the real question worth asking
+
+## Quick Pass vs Deep Dive
+
+- **Quick (10-15 min)**: Climb Down only -- test one proposal against the five levels. Produce grounding verdict. Good when user has a specific solution and needs a quick sanity check.
+- **Deep (30-45 min)**: Full Climb Up, building from raw data through wisdom, with Camera Test at every level. Best for early-stage thinking where the user needs intellectual discipline before committing to a direction.