rodders 2.1.0 → 3.0.0

data/Gemfile

@@ -12,5 +12,5 @@ group :development do
   gem "yard", "~> 0.6.0"
   gem "bundler", "~> 1.0.0"
   gem "jeweler", "~> 1.6.4"
-  gem "rcov", ">= 0"
+  gem "simplecov"
 end

data/Gemfile.lock

@@ -8,20 +8,24 @@ GEM
       bundler (~> 1.0)
       git (>= 1.2.5)
       rake
-    json (1.6.1)
-    money (4.0.1)
+    json (1.6.6)
+    money (5.0.0)
       i18n (~> 0.4)
       json
+    multi_json (1.3.2)
     rake (0.9.2.2)
-    rcov (0.9.11)
     rspec (2.9.0)
       rspec-core (~> 2.9.0)
       rspec-expectations (~> 2.9.0)
       rspec-mocks (~> 2.9.0)
     rspec-core (2.9.0)
-    rspec-expectations (2.9.0)
+    rspec-expectations (2.9.1)
       diff-lcs (~> 1.1.3)
     rspec-mocks (2.9.0)
+    simplecov (0.6.1)
+      multi_json (~> 1.0)
+      simplecov-html (~> 0.5.3)
+    simplecov-html (0.5.3)
     yard (0.6.8)
 
 PLATFORMS
@@ -31,6 +35,6 @@ DEPENDENCIES
   bundler (~> 1.0.0)
   jeweler (~> 1.6.4)
   money
-  rcov
   rspec (~> 2.9.0)
+  simplecov
   yard (~> 0.6.0)

data/VERSION

@@ -1 +1 @@
-2.1.0
+3.0.0

data/lib/fixed_odds.rb

@@ -17,10 +17,10 @@ class FixedOdds
   # @return [FixedOdds]
   def FixedOdds.from_s(odds)
     case
-    when self.fractional_odds?(odds) then self.fractional_odds odds
-    when self.moneyline_odds?(odds)  then self.moneyline_odds odds
-    when self.decimal_odds?(odds)    then self.decimal_odds odds
-    else                             raise ArgumentError, %{could not parse "#{odds}"}
+    when fractional_odds?(odds) then fractional_odds odds
+    when moneyline_odds?(odds)  then moneyline_odds odds
+    when decimal_odds?(odds)    then decimal_odds odds
+    else                        raise ArgumentError, %{could not parse "#{odds}"}
     end
   end
 
@@ -58,10 +58,10 @@ class FixedOdds
   # @return (see FixedOdds.from_s)
   def FixedOdds.fractional_odds(fractional)
     raise %{could not parse "#{fractional}" as fractional odds} unless self.fractional_odds?(fractional)
-    return new(Rational('1/1')) if fractional == 'evens' || fractional == 'even money' 
-    if /(?<numerator>\d+)(\/|-to-)(?<denominator>\d+)/ =~ fractional then r = Rational("#{numerator}/#{denominator}") end
+    return new(1.to_r) if fractional == 'evens' || fractional == 'even money' 
+    if /(?<numerator>\d+)(\/|-to-)(?<denominator>\d+)/ =~ fractional then r = Rational(numerator, denominator) end
     r = r.reciprocal if fractional.end_with? ' on'
-    new(Rational(r))
+    new r
   end
 
   # creates a new FixedOdds from a Rational
@@ -79,8 +79,8 @@ class FixedOdds
   def FixedOdds.moneyline_odds(moneyline)
     raise %{could not parse "#{moneyline}" as moneyline odds} unless self.moneyline_odds?(moneyline)
     sign = moneyline[0]
-    if sign == '+' then new(Rational("#{moneyline}/100"))
-    else                new(Rational("100/#{moneyline.to_i.magnitude}"))
+    if sign == '+' then new(Rational(moneyline, 100))
+    else                new(Rational(100, -moneyline.to_i))
     end
   end
 
@@ -91,30 +91,30 @@ class FixedOdds
   # @return (see FixedOdds.from_s)
   def FixedOdds.decimal_odds(decimal)
     raise %{could not parse "#{decimal}" as decimal odds} unless self.decimal_odds?(decimal)
-    new(Rational(decimal.to_f - 1))
+    new(decimal.to_r - 1)
   end
 
-  # calculates the profit won on a winning bet
+  # calculates the profit on a winning stake
   # @param [Money] stake the stake
   # @return [Money] the profit
-  def profit_on_winning_stake(stake)
+  def profit_on_stake(stake)
     stake * @fractional_odds
   end
 
-  # calculates the total return on a winning bet
-  # (which is the profit plus the initial stake)
-  # @param (see #profit_on_winning_stake)
-  # @return [Money] the total winnings
-  def total_return_on_winning_stake(stake)
-    profit_on_winning_stake(stake) + stake
+  # calculates the total return on a winning stake
+  # (the profit plus the stake)
+  # @param (see #profit_on_stake)
+  # @return [Money] the total returned
+  def total_return_on_stake(stake)
+    profit_on_stake(stake) + stake
   end
 
-  # calculates the magnitude of the stake needed to
+  # calculates the stake needed to
   # win the specified amount in profit
-  # @param [Money] win the desired profit
+  # @param [Money] profit the desired profit
   # @return [Money] the stake required to realise that profit on a winning bet
-  def stake_needed_to_win win
-    win / @fractional_odds
+  def stake_to_profit profit
+    profit / @fractional_odds
   end
 
   # string representation in fractional form like '4/1'
@@ -134,10 +134,10 @@ class FixedOdds
   def to_s_moneyline
     integral_number_with_sign_regex = '%+d'
 
-    if @fractional_odds > 1.0
+    if @fractional_odds > 1
       integral_number_with_sign_regex % (fractional_odds * 100).to_i
     else
-      integral_number_with_sign_regex % (-100.0 / fractional_odds)
+      integral_number_with_sign_regex % (-100 / fractional_odds)
     end
   end
 

data/lib/mutually_exclusive_collection.rb

@@ -1,32 +1,102 @@
-# A collection of mutually exclusive events.
+# A collection of mutually exclusive odds for different outcomes.
+# Includes methods for sports betting arbitrage. Due to the discrete nature
+# of real-world monetary amounts, there may be small rounding errors.
 class MutuallyExclusiveCollection
-  # create a new collection with the given events
-  # @param [Array<FixedOdds>] events the events
-  def initialize(events)
-    @events = events.sort
+  # create a new collection with the given odds
+  # @param [Array<FixedOdds>] mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds the odds for all the mutually exclusive outcomes
+  def initialize(mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds)
+    @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds = mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.sort
   end
 
-  # the least likely of the events to occur
-  # @return [FixedOdds] the least likely event
+  # the least likely of the odds to occur
+  # @return [FixedOdds] the least likely odd
   def least_likely
-    @events.first
+    @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.first
   end
 
-  # the most likely of the events to occur
-  # @return [FixedOdds] the most likely event
+  # the most likely of the odds to occur
+  # @return [FixedOdds] the most likely odd
   def most_likely
-    @events.last
+    @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.last
   end  
 
-  # the events in ascending order of probability
-  # @return [Array<FixedOdds>] events in ascending probability
+  # the odds in ascending order of probability
+  # @return [Array<FixedOdds>] odds in ascending probability
   def in_ascending_probability
-    @events
+    @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds
   end
 
-  # the events in descending order of probability
-  # @return [Array<FixedOdds>] events in descending probability
+  # the odds in descending order of probability
+  # @return [Array<FixedOdds>] odds in descending probability
   def in_descending_probability
-    @events.reverse
+    @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.reverse
   end
+
+  # tells if arbitrage is possible for a collection of odds
+  # @return [Boolean] true if profit can be made regardless
+  # of the outcome, false otherwise
+  def arbitrageable?
+    sum_inverse_outcome < 1
+  end
+
+  # the bookmaker's return rate
+  # @return [Number] the bookmaker's return rate as a percentage
+  def bookmakers_return_rate
+    fs = fractions
+    1 - fs.reduce(:*) / fs.reduce(:+)
+  end
+
+  # hash of the odds and what percentage of the total stake should go on each
+  # @return [Hash<FixedOdds, Number>] hash of odds to percentages
+  def percentages
+    hash = {}
+    @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.each {|odds| hash[odds] = 1 / odds.fractional_odds / sum_inverse_outcome }
+    hash
+  end
+
+  # hash of the odds and what stakes to put on each given a total stake
+  # @param [Money] total_stake the money to distribute on the outcomes
+  # @return [Hash<FixedOdds, Money>] hash of odds to stakes
+  def stakes_for_total_stake total_stake
+    hash = {}
+    @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.each {|odds| hash[odds] = total_stake / odds.fractional_odds / sum_inverse_outcome }
+    hash
+  end
+
+  # hash of the odds and the stakes needed to make the specified profit
+  # @param (see #stakes_for_total_stake)
+  # @return (see #stakes_for_total_stake)
+  def stakes_for_profit desired_profit
+    stakes_for_total_stake(stake_to_profit(desired_profit))
+  end
+
+  # the stake needed to win the desired profit
+  # @param [Money] desired_profit the profit to gain from arbitrage
+  # @return [Money] the stake necessary to realise the desired profit
+  def stake_to_profit desired_profit
+    desired_profit / profit_percentage
+  end
+
+  # the profit won given the total stake to distribute
+  # @param (see #stakes_for_total_stake)
+  # @return [Money] the profit that can be made from a total stake
+  def profit_on_stake total_stake
+    total_stake * profit_percentage
+  end
+
+  # profit percentage available on this arb
+  # @return [Number] the percentage profit available on the arb
+  def profit_percentage
+    sum = sum_inverse_outcome
+    (1 - sum) / sum
+  end
+
+  private
+    def sum_inverse_outcome
+      fractions.reduce(0) {|sum, n| sum + Rational(1, n) }
+    end
+
+    def fractions
+      @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.collect {|o| o.fractional_odds }
+    end
 end

data/rodders.gemspec

@@ -5,11 +5,11 @@
 
 Gem::Specification.new do |s|
   s.name = "rodders"
-  s.version = "2.1.0"
+  s.version = "3.0.0"
 
   s.required_rubygems_version = Gem::Requirement.new(">= 0") if s.respond_to? :required_rubygems_version=
   s.authors = ["Nigel Lowry"]
-  s.date = "2012-03-21"
+  s.date = "2012-04-25"
   s.description = "Converts between fractional, decimal and moneyline odds for betting and gambling. Calculates how much can be won on a given stake."
   s.email = "nigel-lowry@ultra.eclipse.co.uk"
   s.extra_rdoc_files = [
@@ -48,14 +48,14 @@ Gem::Specification.new do |s|
       s.add_development_dependency(%q<yard>, ["~> 0.6.0"])
       s.add_development_dependency(%q<bundler>, ["~> 1.0.0"])
       s.add_development_dependency(%q<jeweler>, ["~> 1.6.4"])
-      s.add_development_dependency(%q<rcov>, [">= 0"])
+      s.add_development_dependency(%q<simplecov>, [">= 0"])
     else
       s.add_dependency(%q<money>, [">= 0"])
       s.add_dependency(%q<rspec>, ["~> 2.9.0"])
       s.add_dependency(%q<yard>, ["~> 0.6.0"])
       s.add_dependency(%q<bundler>, ["~> 1.0.0"])
       s.add_dependency(%q<jeweler>, ["~> 1.6.4"])
-      s.add_dependency(%q<rcov>, [">= 0"])
+      s.add_dependency(%q<simplecov>, [">= 0"])
     end
   else
     s.add_dependency(%q<money>, [">= 0"])
@@ -63,7 +63,7 @@ Gem::Specification.new do |s|
     s.add_dependency(%q<yard>, ["~> 0.6.0"])
     s.add_dependency(%q<bundler>, ["~> 1.0.0"])
     s.add_dependency(%q<jeweler>, ["~> 1.6.4"])
-    s.add_dependency(%q<rcov>, [">= 0"])
+    s.add_dependency(%q<simplecov>, [">= 0"])
   end
 end
 

data/spec/fixed_odds_spec.rb

@@ -41,15 +41,15 @@ describe "FixedOdds" do
       FixedOdds.fractional_odds('even money').should == FixedOdds.fractional_odds('1/1')
     end
 
-    it "recognises '4-to-1' as '4/1'" do
+    it "treats '4-to-1' as '4/1'" do
       FixedOdds.fractional_odds('4-to-1').should == FixedOdds.fractional_odds('4/1')
     end
 
-    it "recognises '4-to-1 against' as '4/1'" do
+    it "treats '4-to-1 against' as '4/1'" do
       FixedOdds.fractional_odds('4-to-1 against').should == FixedOdds.fractional_odds('4/1')
     end
 
-    it "recognises '4-to-1 on' as '1/4'" do
+    it "treats '4-to-1 on' as '1/4'" do
       FixedOdds.fractional_odds('4-to-1 on').should == FixedOdds.fractional_odds('1/4')
     end
 
@@ -103,29 +103,29 @@ describe "FixedOdds" do
     describe "positive figures" do
       it "treats '+400' as meaning winning £400 on a £100 bet" do
         plus400 = FixedOdds.moneyline_odds('+400')
-        plus400.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(400, :GBP)
+        plus400.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£100').should == Money.parse('£400')
       end
 
       it "treats +100 as meaning winning £100 on a £100 bet" do
         plus100 = FixedOdds.moneyline_odds('+100')
-        plus100.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)
+        plus100.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£100').should == Money.parse('£100')
       end
     end
 
     describe "negative figures" do
       it "treats '-400' as meaning you need to wager £400 to win £100" do
         minus400 = FixedOdds.moneyline_odds('-400')
-        minus400.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(400, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)
+        minus400.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£400').should == Money.parse('£100')
       end
 
       it "treats '-100' as meaning you need to wager £100 to win £100" do
         minus100 = FixedOdds.moneyline_odds('-100')
-        minus100.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)
+        minus100.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£100').should == Money.parse('£100')
       end
 
       it "treats '+100' as meaning you need to wager £100 to win £100" do
         plus100 = FixedOdds.moneyline_odds('+100')
-        plus100.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)
+        plus100.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£100').should == Money.parse('£100')
       end
     end
   end
@@ -140,19 +140,19 @@ describe "FixedOdds" do
       )  
     end
 
-    it "treats '2' as meaning you have to wager £100 to win £100" do
-      d2 = FixedOdds.decimal_odds('2')
-      d2.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)
+    it "treats '2' as meaning you have to wager £1 to win £1" do
+      d2 = FixedOdds.decimal_odds '2'
+      d2.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£1').should == Money.parse('£1')
     end
 
-    it "treats '5' as meaning you have to wager £100 to win £400" do
-      d5 = FixedOdds.decimal_odds('5')
-      d5.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(400, :GBP)
+    it "treats '5' as meaning you have to wager £1 to win £4" do
+      d5 = FixedOdds.decimal_odds '5'
+      d5.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£1').should == Money.parse('£4')
     end
 
-    it "treats '1.25' as meaning yo have to wager £400 to win £100" do
-      d1_25 = FixedOdds.decimal_odds('1.25')
-      d1_25.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(400, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)
+    it "treats '1.25' as meaning you have to wager £4 to win £1" do
+      d1_25 = FixedOdds.decimal_odds '1.25'
+      d1_25.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£4').should == Money.parse('£1')
     end
   end
 
@@ -160,7 +160,7 @@ describe "FixedOdds" do
     describe "bad input" do
       it "rejects garbage" do
         expect {
-          FixedOdds.from_s('garbage')  
+          FixedOdds.from_s 'garbage'
         }.to raise_error(
           ArgumentError,
           /could not parse "garbage"/
@@ -170,7 +170,7 @@ describe "FixedOdds" do
 
     it "rejects an empty string" do
       expect {
-        FixedOdds.from_s('')  
+        FixedOdds.from_s ''
       }.to raise_error(
         ArgumentError,
         /could not parse ""/
@@ -212,7 +212,7 @@ describe "FixedOdds" do
 
       it "raises an error for a zero denominator" do
         expect {
-          FixedOdds.from_s('4/0')  
+          FixedOdds.from_s '4/0'
         }.to raise_error(
           ZeroDivisionError
         )
@@ -231,7 +231,7 @@ describe "FixedOdds" do
 
     describe "decimal odds" do
       it "parses integral odds of '2' as decimal odds, not as fractional odds of '2/1'" do
-        decimal_odds_2 = FixedOdds.from_s('2')
+        decimal_odds_2 = FixedOdds.from_s '2'
 
         decimal_odds_2.should == FixedOdds.decimal_odds('2')
         decimal_odds_2.should_not == FixedOdds.fractional_odds('2/1')
@@ -353,49 +353,49 @@ describe "FixedOdds" do
     end
   end
 
-  describe "#profit_on_winning_stake" do
-    it "is £400 on a £100 stake on a 4/1 bet" do 
+  describe "#profit_on_stake" do
+    it "is £4 on a £1 stake on a 4/1 bet" do 
       fourToOne = FixedOdds.fractional_odds '4/1'
-      fourToOne.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(400, :GBP)
+      fourToOne.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£1').should == Money.parse('£4')
     end
 
-    it "is £25 on a £100 stake with a 1/4 bet" do
+    it "is £0.25 on a £1 stake with a 1/4 bet" do
       oneToFour = FixedOdds.fractional_odds '1/4'
-      oneToFour.profit_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(25, :GBP)
+      oneToFour.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£1').should == Money.parse('£0.25')
     end
   end
 
-  describe "#total_return_on_winning_stake" do
-    it "is £500 on a winning 4/1 bet with a £100 stake" do
+  describe "#total_return_on_stake" do
+    it "is £5 on a winning 4/1 bet with a £1 stake" do
       fourToOne = FixedOdds.fractional_odds '4/1'
-      fourToOne.total_return_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(500, :GBP)
+      fourToOne.total_return_on_stake(Money.parse '£1').should == Money.parse('£5')
     end
 
     it "is £125 on a winning 1/4 bet with a £100 stake" do
       oneToFour = FixedOdds.fractional_odds '1/4'
-      oneToFour.total_return_on_winning_stake(Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(125, :GBP)
+      oneToFour.total_return_on_stake(Money.parse '£100').should == Money.parse('£125')
     end
   end
 
-  describe "#stake_needed_to_win" do
+  describe "#stake_to_profit" do
     it "is £1 on a 1/1 to win £1" do
       oneToOne = FixedOdds.fractional_odds '1/1'
-      oneToOne.stake_needed_to_win(Money.from_fixnum(1, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(1, :GBP)
+      oneToOne.stake_to_profit(Money.parse '£1').should == Money.parse('£1')
     end
 
-    it "is £100 on 4/1 to win £400" do
-      fourToOne = FixedOdds.fractional_odds '4/1'
-      fourToOne.stake_needed_to_win(Money.from_fixnum(400, :GBP)).should == Money.from_fixnum(100, :GBP)
+    it "is £1 on 2/1 to win £2" do
+      fourToOne = FixedOdds.fractional_odds '2/1'
+      fourToOne.stake_to_profit(Money.parse '£2').should == Money.parse('£1')
     end
   end
 
   describe "object comparison" do
-    it "'+915' is less likely than '-275'" do
-      FixedOdds.from_s('+915').should be < FixedOdds.from_s('-275')
+    it "'+200' is less likely than '-200'" do
+      FixedOdds.from_s('+200').should be < FixedOdds.from_s('-200')
     end
 
-    it "'-275' is more likely than '+915'" do
-      FixedOdds.from_s('-275').should be > FixedOdds.from_s('+915')
+    it "'-200' is more likely than '+200'" do
+      FixedOdds.from_s('-200').should be > FixedOdds.from_s('+200')
     end 
   end
 end

data/spec/mutually_exclusive_collection_spec.rb

@@ -1,36 +1,134 @@
+# coding: utf-8
 require File.expand_path(File.dirname(__FILE__) + '/spec_helper')
 
 describe "MutuallyExclusiveCollection" do
-  
-  before(:each) do    
-    @good_team = FixedOdds.from_s '-275'
-    @draw = FixedOdds.from_s '+429'
-    @bad_team = FixedOdds.from_s '+915'
 
-    @events = MutuallyExclusiveCollection.new [@draw, @bad_team, @good_team]
+  context "non-arbitrage methods" do
+    before(:each) do    
+      @good_team = FixedOdds.from_s '-275'
+      @draw = FixedOdds.from_s '+429'
+      @bad_team = FixedOdds.from_s '+915'
+
+      @events = MutuallyExclusiveCollection.new [@draw, @bad_team, @good_team]
+    end
+
+    subject { @events }
+
+    its(:most_likely) { should == @good_team }
+    its(:least_likely) { should == @bad_team }
+    its(:in_descending_probability) { should == [@good_team, @draw, @bad_team] }
+    its(:in_ascending_probability) { should == [@bad_team, @draw, @good_team] }
   end
 
-  describe "#least_likely" do
-    it "is the least likely event" do
-      @events.least_likely.should == @bad_team
+  context "decimal odds arbitrage" do
+    before(:each) do
+      @bookmaker1outcome1 = FixedOdds.from_s '2.25'
+      @bookmaker1outcome2 = FixedOdds.from_s '4.9'
+      @bookmaker2outcome1 = FixedOdds.from_s '2.43'
+      @bookmaker2outcome2 = FixedOdds.from_s '3.85'
+
+      @bookmaker1 = MutuallyExclusiveCollection.new [@bookmaker1outcome1, @bookmaker1outcome2]
+      @bookmaker2 = MutuallyExclusiveCollection.new [@bookmaker2outcome1, @bookmaker2outcome2]
+
+      @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage = MutuallyExclusiveCollection.new [@bookmaker2outcome1, @bookmaker1outcome2]
     end
+
+    specify { @bookmaker1.should_not be_arbitrageable }
+    specify { @bookmaker2.should_not be_arbitrageable } 
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.should be_arbitrageable }
+
+    specify { @bookmaker1.bookmakers_return_rate.should be_within(0.0001).of(0.0534) }
+    specify { @bookmaker2.bookmakers_return_rate.should be_within(0.0001).of(0.0478) }
+
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£100').should == Money.parse('£4.63') }
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.profit_percentage.should be_within(0.001).of(0.046) }
   end
 
-  describe "#most_likely" do
-    it "is the most likely event" do
-      @events.most_likely.should == @good_team
+  context "fractional odds arbitrage" do
+    before(:each) do
+      @odds1 = FixedOdds.from_s '2/1'
+      @odds2 = FixedOdds.from_s '3/1'
+
+      @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage = MutuallyExclusiveCollection.new [@odds1, @odds2]
     end
+
+    subject { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage }
+
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.should be_arbitrageable }
+    its(:profit_percentage) { should be_within(0.001).of(0.2) }
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£500').should == Money.parse('£100') }
   end
 
-  describe "#in_descending_probability" do
-    it "is in descending order of probability" do
-      @events.in_descending_probability.should == [@good_team, @draw, @bad_team]
+  context "more than two mutually exclusive events" do
+    before(:each) do
+      @odds1 = FixedOdds.from_s '2.3'
+      @odds2 = FixedOdds.from_s '8.0'
+      @odds3 = FixedOdds.from_s '18.0'
+
+      @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage = MutuallyExclusiveCollection.new [@odds1, @odds2, @odds3]
     end
+
+    subject { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage }
+
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.should be_arbitrageable }
+    its(:profit_percentage) { should be_within(0.0000001).of(0.02996) }
+
+    describe "#percentages" do
+      it "gives the percentages to put on each bet" do
+        percentages = @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.percentages
+        percentages.should have(3).items
+        percentages[@odds1].should be_within(0.0001).of(0.7922)
+        percentages[@odds2].should be_within(0.0001).of(0.1472)
+        percentages[@odds3].should be_within(0.0001).of(0.0606)
+      end
+    end
+
+    describe "#stakes_for_total_stake" do
+      it "gives the right amounts" do
+        total = Money.parse '£500'
+        amounts = @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.stakes_for_total_stake total
+        amounts.should have(3).items
+        amounts[@odds1].should == Money.parse('£396.14')
+        amounts[@odds2].should == Money.parse('£73.57')
+        amounts[@odds3].should == Money.parse('£30.29')
+        amounts.values.reduce(:+).should == total
+      end
+    end
+
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£500').should == Money.parse('£14.98') }
+
+    describe "#stakes_for_profit" do
+      it "gives the right amounts" do
+        amounts = @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.stakes_for_profit Money.parse '£750'
+        amounts.should have(3).items
+        amounts[@odds1].should == Money.parse('£19833.33')
+        amounts[@odds2].should == Money.parse('£3683.33')
+        amounts[@odds3].should == Money.parse('£1516.67')
+        amounts.values.reduce(:+).should == Money.parse('£25033.33')
+      end
+    end
+
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.stake_to_profit(Money.parse '£750').should == Money.parse('£25033.33') }
   end
 
-  describe "#in_ascending_probability" do
-    it "is in ascending order of probability" do
-      @events.in_ascending_probability.should == [@bad_team, @draw, @good_team]
+  context "different events with same odds" do
+    before(:each) do
+      @odds1 = FixedOdds.from_s '15/1'
+      @odds2 = FixedOdds.from_s '15/1'
+
+      @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage = MutuallyExclusiveCollection.new [@odds1, @odds2]
+    end
+
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.should be_arbitrageable }
+    specify { @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.profit_on_stake(Money.parse '£100').should == Money.parse('£650') }
+
+    describe "#percentages" do
+      it "gives the percentages to put on each bet" do
+        percentages = @bookmaker_vulnerable_to_arbitrage.percentages
+        percentages.should have(2).items
+        percentages[@odds1].should be_within(0.0001).of(0.5)
+        percentages[@odds2].should be_within(0.0001).of(0.5)
+      end
     end
   end
 end

data/spec/spec_helper.rb

@@ -9,5 +9,5 @@ require 'mutually_exclusive_collection'
 Dir["#{File.dirname(__FILE__)}/support/**/*.rb"].each {|f| require f}
 
 RSpec.configure do |config|
-  
+  config.before(:suite) { Money.assume_from_symbol = true } 
 end

metadata

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 --- !ruby/object:Gem::Specification
 name: rodders
 version: !ruby/object:Gem::Version
-  version: 2.1.0
+  version: 3.0.0
   prerelease: 
 platform: ruby
 authors:
@@ -9,11 +9,11 @@ authors:
 autorequire: 
 bindir: bin
 cert_chain: []
-date: 2012-03-21 00:00:00.000000000 Z
+date: 2012-04-25 00:00:00.000000000 Z
 dependencies:
 - !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
   name: money
-  requirement: &70280798836640 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
+  requirement: &70206634864520 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
     none: false
     requirements:
     - - ! '>='
@@ -21,10 +21,10 @@ dependencies:
         version: '0'
   type: :runtime
   prerelease: false
-  version_requirements: *70280798836640
+  version_requirements: *70206634864520
 - !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
   name: rspec
-  requirement: &70280798852160 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
+  requirement: &70206634864040 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
     none: false
     requirements:
     - - ~>
@@ -32,10 +32,10 @@ dependencies:
         version: 2.9.0
   type: :development
   prerelease: false
-  version_requirements: *70280798852160
+  version_requirements: *70206634864040
 - !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
   name: yard
-  requirement: &70280798851420 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
+  requirement: &70206634880700 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
     none: false
     requirements:
     - - ~>
@@ -43,10 +43,10 @@ dependencies:
         version: 0.6.0
   type: :development
   prerelease: false
-  version_requirements: *70280798851420
+  version_requirements: *70206634880700
 - !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
   name: bundler
-  requirement: &70280798850860 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
+  requirement: &70206634880220 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
     none: false
     requirements:
     - - ~>
@@ -54,10 +54,10 @@ dependencies:
         version: 1.0.0
   type: :development
   prerelease: false
-  version_requirements: *70280798850860
+  version_requirements: *70206634880220
 - !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
   name: jeweler
-  requirement: &70280798850280 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
+  requirement: &70206634879740 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
     none: false
     requirements:
     - - ~>
@@ -65,10 +65,10 @@ dependencies:
         version: 1.6.4
   type: :development
   prerelease: false
-  version_requirements: *70280798850280
+  version_requirements: *70206634879740
 - !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
-  name: rcov
-  requirement: &70280798849340 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
+  name: simplecov
+  requirement: &70206634879260 !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
     none: false
     requirements:
     - - ! '>='
@@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ dependencies:
         version: '0'
   type: :development
   prerelease: false
-  version_requirements: *70280798849340
+  version_requirements: *70206634879260
 description: Converts between fractional, decimal and moneyline odds for betting and
   gambling. Calculates how much can be won on a given stake.
 email: nigel-lowry@ultra.eclipse.co.uk
@@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ required_ruby_version: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
       version: '0'
       segments:
       - 0
-      hash: -1572583609096736307
+      hash: -4185691699245948853
 required_rubygems_version: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
   none: false
   requirements: