monte 0.1.0

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data/.gitignore

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+/.yardoc
+/.bundle
+/coverage/
+/Gemfile.lock
+/rdoc/
+/doc/
+/tmp/
+/pkg/
+/log/
+/lib/github_cli/man/u
+
+# rspec failure tracking
+.rspec_status

data/.rspec

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+--format documentation
+--color
+--require spec_helper

data/.travis.yml

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+---
+language: ruby
+cache: bundler
+rvm:
+  - 2.6.3
+before_install: gem install bundler -v 2.1.2

data/CHANGELOG.md

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+# Change log
+
+## [v0.0.1] - 2020-11-08
+
+### Added
+* Added core command: `carlo`

data/Gemfile

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+source "https://rubygems.org"
+
+# Specify your gem's dependencies in monte.gemspec
+gemspec
+
+gem "rake", "~> 12.0"
+gem "rspec", "~> 3.0"

data/LICENSE.txt

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+The MIT License (MIT)
+
+Copyright (c) 2020 Andrew Werner
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of
+this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in
+the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to
+use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of
+the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so,
+subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS
+FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR
+COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER
+IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN
+CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.

data/README.md

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+# Monte
+
+Monte is a simple gem designed to help software engineers and developers answer
+the question 'When will it be done?'.
+
+The tool uses the Monte Carlo method to provide a reasonable forecast of the
+future based on statistically relevant data from the past.
+## Installation
+
+You must have ruby installed to use this tool.
+
+start by installing the gem.
+
+```sh
+$ gem install monte
+```
+
+## Usage
+
+The following is the simplest version of Monte which should be used when you
+have little previous data with which to build your forecast.
+
+```sh
+$ monte carlo
+>
+>   __  __                   _
+>  |  \/  |   ___    _ __   | |_    ___
+>  | |\/| |  / _ \  | '_ \  | __|  / _ \
+>  | |  | | | (_) | | | | | | |_  |  __/
+>  |_|  |_|  \___/  |_| |_|  \__|  \___|
+>
+> Please answer the following:
+>
+> How many items do you have in your backlog? 40
+> How certain are you with regard to the scope of the work? medium
+> When will you start work (e.g. 28/04/2021) 2020-11-15
+> What is the smallest number of tasks/tickets you have completed in a week? 2
+> What is the largest number of tasks/tickets you have completed in a week? 6
+> How many simulations would you like to run 10000
+>
+>
+> Your Results
+>
+> ┌──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┐
+> │    5%    │   15%    │   30%    │   50%    │   70%    │   85%    │   95%    │
+> ├──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────────┤
+> │2021-02-14│2021-02-21│2021-02-28│2021-02-28│2021-03-07│2021-03-14│2021-03-21│
+> └──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┘
+```
+
+## Development
+
+After checking out the repo, run `bin/setup` to install dependencies. Then, run
+`rake spec` to run the tests. You can also run `bin/console` for an interactive
+prompt that will allow you to experiment.
+
+To install this gem onto your local machine, run `bundle exec rake install`. To
+release a new version, update the version number in `version.rb`, and then run
+`bundle exec rake release`, which will create a git tag for the version, push
+git commits and tags, and push the `.gem` file to
+[rubygems.org](https://rubygems.org).
+
+## Copyright
+
+Copyright (c) 2020 Andrew Werner. See [MIT License](LICENSE.txt) for further details.

data/Rakefile

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+require "bundler/gem_tasks"
+require "rspec/core/rake_task"
+
+RSpec::Core::RakeTask.new(:spec)
+
+task :default => :spec

data/bin/console

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+#!/usr/bin/env ruby
+
+require "bundler/setup"
+require "monte"
+
+# You can add fixtures and/or initialization code here to make experimenting
+# with your gem easier. You can also use a different console, if you like.
+
+# (If you use this, don't forget to add pry to your Gemfile!)
+# require "pry"
+# Pry.start
+
+require "irb"
+IRB.start(__FILE__)

data/bin/setup

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+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+set -euo pipefail
+IFS=$'\n\t'
+set -vx
+
+bundle install
+
+# Do any other automated setup that you need to do here

data/exe/monte

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+#!/usr/bin/env ruby
+# frozen_string_literal: true
+
+lib_path = File.expand_path('../lib', __dir__)
+$:.unshift(lib_path) if !$:.include?(lib_path)
+require 'monte/cli'
+
+Signal.trap('INT') do
+  warn("\n#{caller.join("\n")}: interrupted")
+  exit(1)
+end
+
+begin
+  Monte::CLI.start
+rescue Monte::CLI::Error => err
+  puts "ERROR: #{err.message}"
+  exit 1
+end

data/lib/monte.rb

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+# frozen_string_literal: true
+
+require 'monte/version'
+
+module Monte
+end

data/lib/monte/cli.rb

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+# frozen_string_literal: true
+
+require 'thor'
+
+module Monte
+  # Handle the application command line parsing
+  # and the dispatch to various command objects
+  #
+  # @api public
+  class CLI < Thor
+    # Error raised by this runner
+    Error = Class.new(StandardError)
+
+    desc 'version', 'monte version'
+    def version
+      require_relative 'version'
+      puts "v#{Monte::VERSION}"
+    end
+    map %w[--version -v] => :version
+
+    desc 'carlo', 'Runs through a set of questions to generate a forecast for project completion'
+    method_option :help, aliases: '-h', type: :boolean,
+                         desc: 'Display usage information'
+    def carlo
+      if options[:help]
+        invoke :help, ['carlo']
+      else
+        require_relative 'commands/carlo'
+        Monte::Commands::Carlo.new(options).execute
+      end
+    end
+  end
+end

data/lib/monte/command.rb

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+# frozen_string_literal: true
+
+require 'forwardable'
+
+module Monte
+  class Command
+    extend Forwardable
+
+    def_delegators :command, :run
+
+    # Execute this command
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def execute(*)
+      raise(
+        NotImplementedError,
+        "#{self.class}##{__method__} must be implemented"
+      )
+    end
+
+    # The external commands runner
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-command
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def command(**options)
+      require 'tty-command'
+      TTY::Command.new(options)
+    end
+
+    # The cursor movement
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-cursor
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def cursor
+      require 'tty-cursor'
+      TTY::Cursor
+    end
+
+    # Open a file or text in the user's preferred editor
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-editor
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def editor
+      require 'tty-editor'
+      TTY::Editor
+    end
+
+    # File manipulation utility methods
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-file
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def generator
+      require 'tty-file'
+      TTY::File
+    end
+
+    # Terminal output paging
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-pager
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def pager(**options)
+      require 'tty-pager'
+      TTY::Pager.new(options)
+    end
+
+    # Terminal platform and OS properties
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-pager
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def platform
+      require 'tty-platform'
+      TTY::Platform.new
+    end
+
+    # The interactive prompt
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-prompt
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def prompt(**options)
+      require 'tty-prompt'
+      TTY::Prompt.new(options)
+    end
+
+    # Get terminal screen properties
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-screen
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def screen
+      require 'tty-screen'
+      TTY::Screen
+    end
+
+    # The unix which utility
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-which
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def which(*args)
+      require 'tty-which'
+      TTY::Which.which(*args)
+    end
+
+    # Check if executable exists
+    #
+    # @see http://www.rubydoc.info/gems/tty-which
+    #
+    # @api public
+    def exec_exist?(*args)
+      require 'tty-which'
+      TTY::Which.exist?(*args)
+    end
+
+    def table(headers, rows)
+      require 'tty-table'
+      TTY::Table.new(headers, rows)
+    end
+
+    def large_title(title)
+      require 'tty-font'
+      TTY::Font.new(:standard).write(title)
+    end
+  end
+end

data/lib/monte/commands/.gitkeep

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+#

data/lib/monte/commands/carlo.rb

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+# frozen_string_literal: true
+
+require 'date'
+require_relative '../command'
+require_relative '../simulation'
+
+module Monte
+  module Commands
+    # Runs Monte Carlo Simulation to estimate how long a piece of work will take
+    class Carlo < Monte::Command
+      include Simulation
+      CERTAINTY = { 'low' => 1.8, 'medium' => 1.5, 'high' => 1.2 }.freeze
+      RUNS = { '10000' => 10_000, '1000' => 1000, '500' => 500 }.freeze
+      HEADERS = ['5%', '15%', '30%', '50%', '70%', '85%', '95%'].freeze
+      PERCENTILES = [0.05, 0.15, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.85, 0.95].freeze
+
+      def initialize(options)
+        @options = options
+      end
+
+      def execute(output: $stdout)
+        output.puts(create_header)
+        output.puts("Please answer the following:\n\n")
+        user_input = ask_questions!
+        results = percentiles(user_input)
+        output.puts("\n\nYour Results\n\n")
+        output.puts(create_table(results))
+      end
+
+      def create_table(rows)
+        table(HEADERS, [rows]).render(:unicode, alignment: [:center])
+      end
+
+      def create_header
+        large_title('Monte')
+      end
+
+      def ask_questions!
+        prompt.collect do
+          key(:backlog).ask('How many items do you have in your backlog?', convert: :int)
+          key(:split_factor).select('How certain are you with regard to the scope of the work?', CERTAINTY)
+          key(:start_date).ask('When will you start work (e.g. 28/04/2021)') do |q|
+            q.default Date.today
+            q.convert ->(input) { Date.parse(input.to_s) }
+          end
+          key(:low).ask('What is the smallest number of tasks/tickets you have completed in a week?', convert: :int)
+          key(:high).ask('What is the largest number of tasks/tickets you have completed in a week?', convert: :int)
+          key(:runs).select('How many simulations would you like to run', RUNS)
+        end
+      end
+
+    end
+  end
+end

data/lib/monte/simulation.rb

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+# frozen_string_literal: true
+
+# The code to run n monte carlo simulations
+# args is a hash that must contain the following:
+# :backlog
+# :split_factor
+# :runs
+# :low
+# :high
+module Simulation
+  PERCENTILES = [0.05, 0.15, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.85, 0.95].freeze
+
+  def percentiles(args)
+    results = run_simulations(args).sort
+    PERCENTILES.map do |percentile|
+      index = args[:runs] * (percentile - 1)
+      results[index]
+    end
+  end
+
+  def run_simulations(args)
+    estimated_backlog = args[:backlog] * args[:split_factor]
+    Array.new(args[:runs]) do |_|
+      args[:start_date] + simulate(
+        estimated_backlog,
+        args[:low],
+        args[:high]
+      ) * 7
+    end
+  end
+
+  def simulate(backlog, low, high, result = 0)
+    return result if backlog <= 0
+
+    simulate(
+      backlog - rand(low..high),
+      low,
+      high,
+      result + 1
+    )
+  end
+end

data/lib/monte/version.rb

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+module Monte
+  VERSION = "0.1.0"
+end

data/monte.gemspec

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+# frozen_string_literal: true
+
+require_relative 'lib/monte/version'
+
+Gem::Specification.new do |spec|
+  spec.name          = 'monte'
+  spec.license       = 'MIT'
+  spec.version       = Monte::VERSION
+  spec.authors       = ['Andrew Werner']
+  spec.email         = ['awerner1@googlemail.com']
+
+  spec.summary       = 'Monte Carlo forecasting for engineering projects'
+  spec.description   = "If you are an engineer who is being asked, 'When will
+  it be done?' then Monte can help by using the Monte Carlo method to provide
+  you with plausile forecasts based on historic data."
+  spec.homepage      = 'https://github.com/ALRW/monte'
+  spec.required_ruby_version = Gem::Requirement.new('>= 2.3.0')
+
+  spec.metadata['homepage_uri'] = spec.homepage
+  spec.metadata['source_code_uri'] = 'https://github.com/ALRW/monte.git'
+  spec.metadata['changelog_uri'] = 'https://github.com/ALRW/monte/blob/master/CHANGELOG.md'
+
+  # Specify which files should be added to the gem when it is released.
+  # The `git ls-files -z` loads the files in the RubyGem that have been added into git.
+  spec.files = Dir.chdir(File.expand_path(__dir__)) do
+    `git ls-files -z`.split("\x0").reject { |f| f.match(%r{^(test|spec|features)/}) }
+  end
+  spec.bindir        = 'exe'
+  spec.executables   = spec.files.grep(%r{^exe/}) { |f| File.basename(f) }
+  spec.require_paths = ['lib']
+end

metadata

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+--- !ruby/object:Gem::Specification
+name: monte
+version: !ruby/object:Gem::Version
+  version: 0.1.0
+platform: ruby
+authors:
+- Andrew Werner
+autorequire: 
+bindir: exe
+cert_chain: []
+date: 2020-11-15 00:00:00.000000000 Z
+dependencies: []
+description: |-
+  If you are an engineer who is being asked, 'When will
+    it be done?' then Monte can help by using the Monte Carlo method to provide
+    you with plausile forecasts based on historic data.
+email:
+- awerner1@googlemail.com
+executables:
+- monte
+extensions: []
+extra_rdoc_files: []
+files:
+- ".gitignore"
+- ".rspec"
+- ".travis.yml"
+- CHANGELOG.md
+- Gemfile
+- LICENSE.txt
+- README.md
+- Rakefile
+- bin/console
+- bin/setup
+- exe/monte
+- lib/monte.rb
+- lib/monte/cli.rb
+- lib/monte/command.rb
+- lib/monte/commands/.gitkeep
+- lib/monte/commands/carlo.rb
+- lib/monte/simulation.rb
+- lib/monte/version.rb
+- monte.gemspec
+homepage: https://github.com/ALRW/monte
+licenses:
+- MIT
+metadata:
+  homepage_uri: https://github.com/ALRW/monte
+  source_code_uri: https://github.com/ALRW/monte.git
+  changelog_uri: https://github.com/ALRW/monte/blob/master/CHANGELOG.md
+post_install_message: 
+rdoc_options: []
+require_paths:
+- lib
+required_ruby_version: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
+  requirements:
+  - - ">="
+    - !ruby/object:Gem::Version
+      version: 2.3.0
+required_rubygems_version: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
+  requirements:
+  - - ">="
+    - !ruby/object:Gem::Version
+      version: '0'
+requirements: []
+rubygems_version: 3.1.2
+signing_key: 
+specification_version: 4
+summary: Monte Carlo forecasting for engineering projects
+test_files: []