elo_demo 0.1.0
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- checksums.yaml +7 -0
- data/.gitignore +9 -0
- data/.rspec +2 -0
- data/.travis.yml +5 -0
- data/Gemfile +5 -0
- data/LICENSE.txt +21 -0
- data/README.md +162 -0
- data/Rakefile +6 -0
- data/bin/console +14 -0
- data/bin/run_demo +85 -0
- data/bin/setup +8 -0
- data/elo_demo.gemspec +29 -0
- data/lib/elo_demo.rb +87 -0
- data/lib/elo_demo/version.rb +3 -0
- metadata +115 -0
checksums.yaml
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data.tar.gz: 4539decaa860a62c0dd6192a7c2ef47b69d042de16f7ab053439d7dcdd80e0e933a942b4608aac8b21c766e91569a9beac2aebeef849109b4211a8b057980f9e
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data/.gitignore
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data/.rspec
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data/.travis.yml
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data/Gemfile
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data/LICENSE.txt
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The MIT License (MIT)
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Copyright (c) 2016 TODO: Write your name
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Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
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of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
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in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
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to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
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copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
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furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
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The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in
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all copies or substantial portions of the Software.
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THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
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IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
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FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
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AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
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LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
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OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN
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THE SOFTWARE.
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data/README.md
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# Elo Rating Demonstration
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Most people do ranking wrong. In this small demonstration I have 10 players battling each other through 1,000 random matches.
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The most naive sorting would be to create a simple score (such as number of wins subtracted by number of loses). In this case, this is the simple ranking:
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```
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Ranking sorted by Points (wins - loses)
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Name Games Wins Loses Points Elo Rating
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10
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1 Kong 217 117 100 17 802
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2 Samus 211 110 101 9 842
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3 Wario 197 102 95 7 824
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4 Luigi 186 95 91 4 841
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5 Zelda 160 81 79 2 847
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6 Pikachu 209 105 104 1 851
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7 Yoshi 223 112 111 1 803
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8 Mario 203 101 102 -1 820
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9 Fox 208 95 113 -18 754
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10 Bowser 186 82 104 -22 785
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```
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Now we make Samus (2nd) wins from Wario (3rd) 10 times in a row, without no one else battling this time.
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```
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Ranking sorted by Points (wins - loses)
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Name Games Wins Loses Points Elo Rating
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1 Samus 221 120 101 19 896
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2 Kong 217 117 100 17 802
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3 Luigi 186 95 91 4 841
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4 Zelda 160 81 79 2 847
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5 Pikachu 209 105 104 1 851
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6 Yoshi 223 112 111 1 803
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7 Mario 203 101 102 -1 820
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8 Wario 207 102 105 -3 760
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9 Fox 208 95 113 -18 754
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10 Bowser 186 82 104 -22 785
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```
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You can see that Samus went to the top of the ranking while poor Wario drastically dropped from 3rd to 8th place.
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This is very unfair as Wario was already weaker than then Samus so the odds of him winning were not high to begin with, and the penalty of trying against a stronger opponent made him drop a lot in the ranking.
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Let's try to make Kong (2nd) losing to Bowser (10th) 10 times.
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```
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Ranking sorted by Points (wins - loses)
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Name Games Wins Loses Points Elo Rating
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1 Samus 221 120 101 19 896
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2 Kong 227 117 110 7 732
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3 Luigi 186 95 91 4 841
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4 Zelda 160 81 79 2 847
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5 Pikachu 209 105 104 1 851
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6 Yoshi 223 112 111 1 803
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7 Mario 203 101 102 -1 820
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8 Wario 207 102 105 -3 760
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9 Bowser 196 92 104 -12 845
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10 Fox 208 95 113 -18 754
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```
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Now even though Kong was supposed to have better odds for being stronger, he lost 10 times in a row but he's still at 2nd place.
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And Bowser, who performed an impressive winning streak of 10 wins agains the 2nd most stronger, still only jumped up one position in the ranking, to 9th place.
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Again, this is very unfair. And this is why simple counting methods such as absolute ammout of wins and loses are not used in real rankings.
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## Elo Rating Run
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Starting over with the exact 1,000 matches in the exact same order and win x lose scenario, we already arrive to a very different ranking than the first one:
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In the naive system, the current top player Pikachu was only in 6th, and Kong, who is at 8th here was considered the top player.
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```
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Ranking sorted by Elo Rating
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Name Games Wins Loses Points Elo Rating
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1 Pikachu 209 105 104 1 851
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2 Zelda 160 81 79 2 847
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3 Samus 211 110 101 9 842
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4 Luigi 186 95 91 4 841
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5 Wario 197 102 95 7 824
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6 Mario 203 101 102 -1 820
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7 Yoshi 223 112 111 1 803
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8 Kong 217 117 100 17 802
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9 Bowser 186 82 104 -22 785
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10 Fox 208 95 113 -18 754
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```
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Now let's make Zelda (2nd) win from Samus (3rd) 10 times.
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They are almost evenly matched (almost same level in the ranking), so Zelda jumps to 1st place and Samus drops from 3rd to 9th.
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```
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Ranking sorted by Elo Rating
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Name Games Wins Loses Points Elo Rating
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1 Zelda 170 91 79 12 904
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2 Pikachu 209 105 104 1 851
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3 Luigi 186 95 91 4 841
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4 Wario 197 102 95 7 824
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5 Mario 203 101 102 -1 820
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6 Yoshi 223 112 111 1 803
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7 Kong 217 117 100 17 802
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8 Bowser 186 82 104 -22 785
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9 Samus 221 110 111 -1 775
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10 Fox 208 95 113 -18 754
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```
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Now let's try the improbable scenario of Pikachu (2nd) losing to Fox (10th) 10 times.
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```
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Ranking sorted by Elo Rating
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Name Games Wins Loses Points Elo Rating
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1 Zelda 170 91 79 12 904
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2 Luigi 186 95 91 4 841
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3 Fox 218 105 113 -8 829
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4 Wario 197 102 95 7 824
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5 Mario 203 101 102 -1 820
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6 Yoshi 223 112 111 1 803
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7 Kong 217 117 100 17 802
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8 Bowser 186 82 104 -22 785
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9 Samus 221 110 111 -1 775
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10 Pikachu 219 105 114 -9 766
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```
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They almost swapped positions because by the skill reflected in the ranking, Pikachu had a higher probability of winning against a 'weak' opponent such as Fox.
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But instead, Fox did an impressive winning streak, so he deserved jumping up from 10th to 3rd, and Pikachu suffered a severe penalty of dropping from 3rd to 10th for losing so many times.
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This is a much fair system where we use the probability of wins and loses.
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If a strong player does a match against a weaker player, he shouldn't jump up too much in the ranking while the weaker shouldn't drop down so much from the ranking, as it's all expected outcomes.
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Now, in the case of improbable matches where a stronger player loses against a weaker player, the stronger should drop down a lot more and the weaker should jump up a lot more as reward.
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This motivates the stronger player to play their best to stay up and the weaker to risk against stronger opponents to wield better rewards.
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That's what makes a more competitive environment for players.
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## Installation
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And then execute:
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$ bundle
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Or install it yourself as:
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$ gem install elo_demo
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## Usage
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Just execute the scenario runner:
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$ bin/run_demo
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## Contributing
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Bug reports and pull requests are welcome on GitHub at https://github.com/akitaonrails/elo_demo.
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## License
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The gem is available as open source under the terms of the [MIT License](http://opensource.org/licenses/MIT).
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data/Rakefile
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data/bin/console
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#!/usr/bin/env ruby
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require "bundler/setup"
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require "elo_demo"
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# You can add fixtures and/or initialization code here to make experimenting
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# with your gem easier. You can also use a different console, if you like.
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# (If you use this, don't forget to add pry to your Gemfile!)
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# require "pry"
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# Pry.start
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require "irb"
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IRB.start
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data/bin/run_demo
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#!/usr/bin/env ruby
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require "bundler/setup"
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require "elo_demo"
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puts "##"
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puts "## NAIVE RUN"
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t = EloDemo::Tournment.new
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t.run!
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t.print_naive_ranking
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attempts = 10
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second_player = t.sorted_by_naive[1]
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third_player = t.sorted_by_naive[2]
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puts "#{second_player.name} (2nd) wins from #{third_player.name} (3rd) #{attempts} times"
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attempts.times do
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t.mark_win(second_player, third_player)
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end
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t.print_naive_ranking
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second_player = t.sorted_by_naive[1]
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worst_player = t.sorted_by_naive.last
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puts "#{second_player.name} (2nd) loses to #{worst_player.name} (10th) #{attempts} times"
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attempts.times do
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t.mark_win(worst_player, second_player)
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end
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t.print_naive_ranking
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fourth_player = t.sorted_by_naive[3]
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fifth_player = t.sorted_by_naive[4]
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puts "#{fourth_player.name} (4th) wins to #{fifth_player.name} (5th) #{attempts} times"
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attempts.times do
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t.mark_win(fourth_player, fifth_player)
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end
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t.print_naive_ranking
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puts "##"
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puts "## ELO RUN"
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t = EloDemo::Tournment.new
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t.run!
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t.print_elo_ranking
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attempts = 10
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second_player = t.sorted_by_elo[1]
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third_player = t.sorted_by_elo[2]
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puts "#{second_player.name} (2nd) wins from #{third_player.name} (3rd) #{attempts} times"
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attempts.times do
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t.mark_win(second_player, third_player)
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end
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t.print_elo_ranking
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second_player = t.sorted_by_elo[1]
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worst_player = t.sorted_by_elo.last
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puts "#{second_player.name} (2nd) loses to #{worst_player.name} (10th) #{attempts} times"
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attempts.times do
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t.mark_win(worst_player, second_player)
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end
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t.print_elo_ranking
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fourth_player = t.sorted_by_elo[3]
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fifth_player = t.sorted_by_elo[4]
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puts "#{fourth_player.name} (4th) wins to #{fifth_player.name} (5th) #{attempts} times"
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attempts.times do
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t.mark_win(fourth_player, fifth_player)
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end
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t.print_elo_ranking
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data/bin/setup
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data/elo_demo.gemspec
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# coding: utf-8
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lib = File.expand_path('../lib', __FILE__)
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$LOAD_PATH.unshift(lib) unless $LOAD_PATH.include?(lib)
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require 'elo_demo/version'
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Gem::Specification.new do |spec|
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spec.name = "elo_demo"
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spec.version = EloDemo::VERSION
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spec.authors = ["Fabio Akita"]
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spec.email = ["boss@akitaonrails.com"]
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spec.summary = %q{This is a short demonstration of one of the most miunderstood topic in programming: ranking}
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spec.description = %q{This short demo will show what most people think of ranking and what the beginnings of a good ranking system actually look like}
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spec.homepage = "https://github.com/akitaonrails/elo_demo"
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spec.license = "MIT"
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spec.files = `git ls-files -z`.split("\x0").reject do |f|
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f.match(%r{^(test|spec|features)/})
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end
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spec.bindir = "exe"
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spec.executables = spec.files.grep(%r{^exe/}) { |f| File.basename(f) }
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spec.require_paths = ["lib"]
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spec.add_runtime_dependency "elo", "~> 0.1.0"
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spec.add_development_dependency "bundler", "~> 1.13"
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spec.add_development_dependency "rake", "~> 10.0"
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spec.add_development_dependency "rspec", "~> 3.0"
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end
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data/lib/elo_demo.rb
ADDED
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require "elo_demo/version"
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require "elo"
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module EloDemo
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class Player
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attr_accessor :name, :games_played, :wins, :loses, :elo_player
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def initialize(options = {})
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self.name = options[:name]
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self.games_played = options[:games_played] || 0
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self.wins = options[:wins] || 0
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self.loses = options[:loses] || 0
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self.elo_player = Elo::Player.new
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end
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end
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class Tournment
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attr_reader :players
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NAMES = %w[Mario Luigi Zelda Bowser Yoshi Wario Fox Pikachu Kong Samus Kirby]
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def initialize
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srand(666)
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23
|
+
@players = []
|
24
|
+
10.times do |i|
|
25
|
+
@players << Player.new(name: NAMES[i])
|
26
|
+
end
|
27
|
+
end
|
28
|
+
|
29
|
+
def run!
|
30
|
+
1000.times do
|
31
|
+
player_0 = @players[rand(1..players.size) - 1]
|
32
|
+
player_1 = @players[rand(1..players.size) - 1]
|
33
|
+
game = [player_0, player_1]
|
34
|
+
winner = game[rand(0..1)]
|
35
|
+
|
36
|
+
if player_0.name == winner.name
|
37
|
+
mark_win(player_0, player_1)
|
38
|
+
else
|
39
|
+
mark_win(player_1, player_0)
|
40
|
+
end
|
41
|
+
end
|
42
|
+
end
|
43
|
+
|
44
|
+
def mark_win(p1, p2)
|
45
|
+
p1.games_played += 1
|
46
|
+
p2.games_played += 1
|
47
|
+
p1.wins += 1
|
48
|
+
p2.loses += 1
|
49
|
+
p1.elo_player.wins_from(p2.elo_player)
|
50
|
+
end
|
51
|
+
|
52
|
+
def print_ranking
|
53
|
+
print_naive_ranking
|
54
|
+
print_elo_ranking
|
55
|
+
end
|
56
|
+
|
57
|
+
def print_naive_ranking
|
58
|
+
puts "Ranking sorted by Points (wins - loses)"
|
59
|
+
puts " #{"Name".ljust(10)} Games Wins Loses Points Elo Rating"
|
60
|
+
sorted_by_naive.each_with_index do |p, index|
|
61
|
+
print_line p, index + 1
|
62
|
+
end
|
63
|
+
puts ""
|
64
|
+
end
|
65
|
+
|
66
|
+
def print_elo_ranking
|
67
|
+
puts "Ranking sorted by Elo Rating"
|
68
|
+
puts " #{"Name".ljust(10)} Games Wins Loses Points Elo Rating"
|
69
|
+
sorted_by_elo.each_with_index do |p, index|
|
70
|
+
print_line p, index + 1
|
71
|
+
end
|
72
|
+
puts ""
|
73
|
+
end
|
74
|
+
|
75
|
+
def sorted_by_naive
|
76
|
+
players.sort_by { |p| p.wins - p.loses }.reverse
|
77
|
+
end
|
78
|
+
|
79
|
+
def sorted_by_elo
|
80
|
+
players.sort_by { |p| p.elo_player.rating }.reverse
|
81
|
+
end
|
82
|
+
|
83
|
+
def print_line(p, index)
|
84
|
+
puts "#{index.to_s.rjust(3)} #{p.name.ljust(10)} #{p.games_played.to_s.rjust(5)} #{p.wins.to_s.rjust(4)} #{p.loses.to_s.rjust(5)} #{(p.wins - p.loses).to_s.rjust(5)} #{p.elo_player.rating.to_s.rjust(10)}"
|
85
|
+
end
|
86
|
+
end
|
87
|
+
end
|
metadata
ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
|
|
1
|
+
--- !ruby/object:Gem::Specification
|
2
|
+
name: elo_demo
|
3
|
+
version: !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
4
|
+
version: 0.1.0
|
5
|
+
platform: ruby
|
6
|
+
authors:
|
7
|
+
- Fabio Akita
|
8
|
+
autorequire:
|
9
|
+
bindir: exe
|
10
|
+
cert_chain: []
|
11
|
+
date: 2016-11-01 00:00:00.000000000 Z
|
12
|
+
dependencies:
|
13
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
|
14
|
+
name: elo
|
15
|
+
requirement: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
16
|
+
requirements:
|
17
|
+
- - "~>"
|
18
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
19
|
+
version: 0.1.0
|
20
|
+
type: :runtime
|
21
|
+
prerelease: false
|
22
|
+
version_requirements: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
23
|
+
requirements:
|
24
|
+
- - "~>"
|
25
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
26
|
+
version: 0.1.0
|
27
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
|
28
|
+
name: bundler
|
29
|
+
requirement: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
30
|
+
requirements:
|
31
|
+
- - "~>"
|
32
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
33
|
+
version: '1.13'
|
34
|
+
type: :development
|
35
|
+
prerelease: false
|
36
|
+
version_requirements: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
37
|
+
requirements:
|
38
|
+
- - "~>"
|
39
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
40
|
+
version: '1.13'
|
41
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
|
42
|
+
name: rake
|
43
|
+
requirement: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
44
|
+
requirements:
|
45
|
+
- - "~>"
|
46
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
47
|
+
version: '10.0'
|
48
|
+
type: :development
|
49
|
+
prerelease: false
|
50
|
+
version_requirements: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
51
|
+
requirements:
|
52
|
+
- - "~>"
|
53
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
54
|
+
version: '10.0'
|
55
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Dependency
|
56
|
+
name: rspec
|
57
|
+
requirement: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
58
|
+
requirements:
|
59
|
+
- - "~>"
|
60
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
61
|
+
version: '3.0'
|
62
|
+
type: :development
|
63
|
+
prerelease: false
|
64
|
+
version_requirements: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
65
|
+
requirements:
|
66
|
+
- - "~>"
|
67
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
68
|
+
version: '3.0'
|
69
|
+
description: This short demo will show what most people think of ranking and what
|
70
|
+
the beginnings of a good ranking system actually look like
|
71
|
+
email:
|
72
|
+
- boss@akitaonrails.com
|
73
|
+
executables: []
|
74
|
+
extensions: []
|
75
|
+
extra_rdoc_files: []
|
76
|
+
files:
|
77
|
+
- ".gitignore"
|
78
|
+
- ".rspec"
|
79
|
+
- ".travis.yml"
|
80
|
+
- Gemfile
|
81
|
+
- LICENSE.txt
|
82
|
+
- README.md
|
83
|
+
- Rakefile
|
84
|
+
- bin/console
|
85
|
+
- bin/run_demo
|
86
|
+
- bin/setup
|
87
|
+
- elo_demo.gemspec
|
88
|
+
- lib/elo_demo.rb
|
89
|
+
- lib/elo_demo/version.rb
|
90
|
+
homepage: https://github.com/akitaonrails/elo_demo
|
91
|
+
licenses:
|
92
|
+
- MIT
|
93
|
+
metadata: {}
|
94
|
+
post_install_message:
|
95
|
+
rdoc_options: []
|
96
|
+
require_paths:
|
97
|
+
- lib
|
98
|
+
required_ruby_version: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
99
|
+
requirements:
|
100
|
+
- - ">="
|
101
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
102
|
+
version: '0'
|
103
|
+
required_rubygems_version: !ruby/object:Gem::Requirement
|
104
|
+
requirements:
|
105
|
+
- - ">="
|
106
|
+
- !ruby/object:Gem::Version
|
107
|
+
version: '0'
|
108
|
+
requirements: []
|
109
|
+
rubyforge_project:
|
110
|
+
rubygems_version: 2.5.1
|
111
|
+
signing_key:
|
112
|
+
specification_version: 4
|
113
|
+
summary: 'This is a short demonstration of one of the most miunderstood topic in programming:
|
114
|
+
ranking'
|
115
|
+
test_files: []
|